Trevor Lawrence’s Path: Think Brett Favre, Dan Marino and Tom Brady

Jacksonville’s quarterback was raw in ‘overall quarterback knowledge,’ but has blossomed under the tutelage of Jaguars coach Doug Pederson and his staff.

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Trevor Lawrence had been called a lot of things before working with Doug Pederson.

Generally, raw was not one of them.

But when the coach arrived in Jacksonville to help the Jaguars dig out of the rubble of a disastrous 2021 under Urban Meyer, that’s what he unearthed in a quarterbacking prospect who was far more used to being tied to superlatives such as generational or prodigal than anything remotely critical of his game. And what that meant for Pederson and his new staff was there was plenty more to work on, and work toward, than many may have expected.

“That was the thing for us. We did feel like he was pretty raw just [in] overall quarterback knowledge, understanding of the game,” Pederson says from his office Thursday. “Obviously very talented, could throw the football, athletic, all that kind of stuff was there. I think just raw from the standpoint of knowing the position. For us, it was like starting from ground zero and building him up from there and allowing him to gain confidence as we went, to communicate as we went.

The Jaguars saw Lawrence turn another corner as a quarterback under Pederson, including their dramatic come-from-behind win over the Chargers in an AFC wild-card playoff game :: Mark J. Rebilas/USA Today Sports

“It was apparent. There were some struggles in the first half of the season, some costly turnovers, and knowing situational football. Those are all of the things that we just kept coaching; we just kept teaching. He wanted to learn all of that.”

The good news is he has learned. The better news may be that all the success he had in becoming a five-star recruit in high school, and winning a national title and staking a claim to being the best NFL prospect in nearly a decade in college, happened without the sort of development he got in his second season in the pros.

It was good enough, in fact, for Lawrence to go 86–4 as a high school and college starter.

And, yet, about halfway through 2022, the Jaguars saw their 23-year-old Pro Bowler turn another corner as a quarterback. But first, as part of the plan Pederson, coordinator Press Taylor, pass-game coordinator Jim Bob Cooter, and quarterbacks Mike McCoy hatched, Lawrence would have to go through a few bumps as the Jaguars empowered him.

Pederson and his coaches saw, in Lawrence, a very football-smart quarterback who simply didn’t know what he didn’t know. In other words, he was capable of shouldering more at the line in terms of checks, and changing plays or routes, without much experience in having done it. So as they started to feed him that, they had to, conversely, tell him it was all right to be wrong every now and then, in an effort to eventually be right a lot.

Which meant telling Lawrence, again, coming off that rough rookie year, to shed any fear of failure, something the coaches knew could take time.

“For me it was just a matter of reassuring him that, listen, Trevor, you’re our guy. We’re going to continue to coach you. We’re going to go as far as you take us. Just believe in yourself and believe in your ability,” Pederson says. “It’s just a matter of continuing to trust in him and really showing that from the coaching staff, showing that from our side of it that we do have the faith and trust in him that he’s the right guy for the job.”

That became important as the losses started to mount after a 2–1 start to the 2022 season. The Jaguars dropped five consecutive games, and Lawrence had four passer ratings under 90, and two in the 50s.

Through that stretch, the light would flicker with flashes from Lawrence—and hints, that came along with the frustrations, that it was soon going to come on. And if it started with a brilliant, efficient, cutting performance against a so-so Raiders defense to break the losing streak in Week 9, it was obvious to everyone it was all the way on as the Jaguars came out of their bye to face the Ravens.

Baltimore came in with the second-best record in the AFC, at 7–3 and, after a back-and-forth first half, took control in the second half, going up 19–10 with 13 minutes left. It was a test for Lawrence, and one he’d pass with flying colors.

“Trevor’s the type of guy, too, he doesn’t say a whole lot, he just goes out and it’s all about action with him—you saw it in how he led our football team in the second half of that game,” Pederson says. “How Trevor led and some of the throws that he made, some of the confident throws he made to Zay [Jones], to Marvin [Jones], to Christian [Kirk], to Evan [Engram], in that game to get us back into it. Ultimately, the touchdown pass to Marv, if you don’t have confidence, you don’t make those throws. He was just in a much better spot.”

And it showed up—maybe more than in any other spot—on the two-point throw he made to win the game to Zay Jones, and not just in what happened on the field but off it, too.

The Jaguars were down 27–26 at that point, and there was good logic to the idea of kicking the extra point, given the momentum that Jacksonville had in coming back. But there was also time—afforded by a lengthy replay review on the touchdown—for discussion, and in that time Pederson saw his team’s belief in Lawrence.

“Our offense, really our team, was like. Let’s go for two,” Pederson says. “It wasn’t my decision; it was a group effort. To me, that shows a lot of confidence in the quarterback. Just asking Trevor, we had a couple of plays that we wanted to call, and he was very confident in one of the two plays that we had. He wanted to make that throw. He wanted to do it to our left. He had confidence in Zay to the left. He just executed the play extremely well.

“That’s the moment right there where you trust your team, especially your quarterback; you put him in those situations to be successful, and they come away with that type of victory.”

The Jaguars went 5–1 the rest of the way, easily bouncing back from a blowout loss to the Lions the next week with a five-game win streak to seize the AFC South.

And just as Lawrence rode out the bumps earlier in the year, he was able to do it again in the context of a single game—his playoff debut. As anyone reading this knows now, that debut got off to a really rugged start, with his four interceptions fueling a 27–0 Chargers lead in the second quarter of the teams’ wild-card playoff game.

What happened next was, in so many ways, a microcosm of Lawrence’s season.

“To have that bad of a first half with the four interceptions, to come back and lead our team, it just showed his confidence,” Pederson says. “I think a year ago it wouldn’t have manifested itself that way. The team just had so much confidence. Our quarterback had confidence coming back in that football game and ultimately winning that game. … That just really, I think, solidified it in our minds as coaches that the confidence, the trust, the belief that he has, and the belief that we have in him as a quarterback, really has taken shape.”

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Pederson says all the predraft hype about his the former Clemson quarterback was dead on :: Derick E. Hingle/USA TODAY Sports

That’s where this really gets interesting—with the question being: If Lawrence was capable of all he accomplished at the high school and college level without this type of development, and if Lawrence could make the strides he did at the end of this year, then where, exactly, would his ceiling be?

And the implication there is coming before you even get to where Pederson starts explaining what else Lawrence can work on in his third NFL season.

“The next steps for Trevor are just to understand the situational aspect of the game, when to make certain throws, when to pull it down, when to run, understanding third-and-4 versus third-and-10. Are we in the first half versus the second half of the ball game? Don’t take a sack in the fringe area when you know you got three points on the board,” Pederson says. “Things like that we can now begin to elevate his game even better and even more. For him, too, just leading the football team—take another step with that.

“Guys look to the quarterback. The quarterback is usually the face of the franchise. They look to him for that leadership and guidance. I want him to be more vocal with the football team overall. I want him to be more vocal with the offense overall. It’s O.K. to show your disappointment sometimes. It just demands from others to elevate their game. I saw it with Brett Favre; I saw it playing with Dan Marino. That’s where he can go. You see that with the Tom Bradys of the world, the Aaron Rodgerses …”

Pederson then paused, and added, “The great quarterbacks that have been able to elevate their football teams, Trevor’s on that very same path.”

And Lawrence is starting to fulfill that promise.

While everyone may have missed the amount of development Lawrence needed, Pederson’s belief that, when it comes to Lawrence’s potential, all of that predraft hype was actually dead on.

"One hundred percent agree with that, yes. All of that,” he says. “They’re saying the same thing with that about the kid at USC, this Caleb Williams, generational talent and all that. Trevor was the same way coming out of Clemson, obviously coming out of high school. We feel that. Now we’re starting to see that. That’s the part that’s starting to take shape. And there’s more to pour into him and more that he can learn.”

And if last year is any example of how that’ll go, look out.