NFL Week 1 Preview: Best Games, Best Bets, Predictions

Our experts have you covered with all the details—from ATS picks to over/under totals—and advise you on which games to stay away from.

Occasionally, there are games that you should absolutely stay away from when it comes to betting, especially during Week 1 of the NFL season, because there’s so much uncertainty.

But then again, it’s opening week in the NFL, and there’s too much excitement to not have something on the line, at least for the prime-time games. So, who cares if we’ve never seen Aaron Rodgers in a regular-season game with the Jets, and against the mighty Bills, the defending three-time champions of the AFC East?

Don’t worry. Sports Illustrated’s Kyle Wood, Matt Verderame and Gilberto Manzano have you covered with everything you need to know betting-wise for the Monday Night Football matchup between Rodgers’s Jets and Josh Allen’s Bills. The trio will pick the five best games to bet on every week in the NFL.

Allen, Prescott and Burrow play in three of the biggest opening games of the 2023 NFL season :: Jamie Germano/USA TODAY Network (Allen); Kim Klement/USA TODAY Sports (Prescott); Katie Stratman/USA TODAY Sports (Burrow)

Notice how we didn’t include the Eagles at the Patriots? Stay away from that one, according to Manzano. Will Jalen Hurts and the Eagles ride their momentum from last season against a dominant Patriots defense on the road? On the other hand, will Mac Jones be on the same page with new offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien? Too much unknown for that matchup.

There are more exciting—and potentially profitable—games that you should keep a close eye on. We’ve got you covered with all of the details—from ATS picks to over/under totals.

Best games

1. Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets

The Rodgers era in New York begins Monday night at Met Life Stadium against the AFC rival Bills, who have won the last six meetings between the teams :: Robert Deutsch/USA TODAY Sports

• Game info: Monday, Sept. 11 | 8:15 p.m. ET | ESPN, ABC
• Location: MetLife Stadium | East Rutherford, N.J.
• Spread: Bills -2.5 (-118) | Jets +2.5 (-110)
• Moneyline: BUF (-141) | NYJ (+120)
• Total: 46.5. Over (-110) | Under (-110)

The Aaron Rodgers era in New York will begin Monday night at MetLife Stadium. The Bills will enter as road favorites, having won five of their last six meetings with the Jets. But the quarterbacks Buffalo beat up on during that stretch were Zach Wilson, Sam Darnold and Mike White, none of whom are on the level of Rodgers, even at 39 years old.

New York has no intention of finishing fourth in the AFC East again. In fact, it has the second-best odds to unseat the Bills, the back-to-back-to-back division champs. A Week 1 win for the Jets would offer some instant gratification after their all-in move over the summer to trade for Rodgers. And while a season-opening loss wouldn’t doom Buffalo by any means, it wouldn’t be good, either.

It’s Rodgers vs. Allen for the third time, Dalvin Cook vs. James Cook for the second time and, for the O-line admirers out there, Connor McGovern vs. Connor McGovern (no relation).

Verderame’s pick: Bills -2.5, over 46.5 (Buffalo 27, New York 24)

Manzano’s pick: Jets +2.5, over 46.5 (New York 27, Buffalo 24)

Wood’s pick: Bills -2.5, under 46.5 (Buffalo 24, New York 20)

2. Miami Dolphins vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Tagovailoa and Herbert were back-to-back selections in the 2020 NFL draft :: Kirby Lee/USA TODAY Sports

• Game info: Sunday, Sept. 10 | 4:25 p.m. ET | CBS
• Location: SoFi Stadium | Inglewood, Calif.
• Spread: Dolphins +2.5 (-125) | Chargers -2.5 (+100)
• Moneyline: MIA (+130) | LAC (-154)
• Total: 50.5. Over (-118) | Under (-110)

Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Herbert, quarterbacks who went back to back in the 2020 draft, are 1–1 head to head. The Dolphins took the first meeting three seasons ago; the second went to the Chargers last year.

Los Angeles is favored at home over a Miami team that revamped its defense this offseason. Perhaps its biggest move was hiring defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, who went against Herbert in the AFC West when he coached the Broncos. Both teams are projected to make the playoffs, but neither is favored to win its division, so a season-opening win over a fellow wild-card hopeful would go a long way.

Tune in to see how the Chargers’ new offensive coordinator, Kellen Moore, will deploy Herbert, Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams against the Dolphins’ defense and to witness Tagovailoa take the field for the first time since Christmas with speedsters such as Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and Raheem Mostert. It’s no wonder this contest has the second-highest over/under of the week.

Verderame’s pick: Chargers -2.5, over 50.5 (Los Angeles 30, Miami 27)

Manzano’s pick: Chargers -2.5, over 50.5 (Los Angeles 30, Miami 27)

Wood’s pick: Chargers -2.5, over 50.5 (Los Angeles 27, Miami 24)

3. Cincinnati Bengals vs. Cleveland Browns

Burrow has been out most of training camp, rehabbing from a calf strain :: Cara Owsley/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK

• Game info: Sunday, Sep. 10 | 1 p.m. ET | Fox
• Location: Cleveland Browns Stadium | Cleveland
• Spread: Bengals -2.5 (-110) | Browns +2.5 (-110)
• Moneyline: CIN (-137) | CLE (+115)
• Total: 47.5. Over (-110) | Under (-118)

The Bengals’ Week 14 win over the Browns in 2022 was the first time Joe Burrow led his team to a win over their in-state rival. Dating back to ’18, Cleveland has dominated the series, having won eight of the last 10 meetings. Even still, the Bengals were installed as road favorites for Week 1.

Burrow, who missed the entire preseason with a calf strain, will take the field against a Browns defense that added Dalvin Tomlinson and Za’Darius Smith up front, plus defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz. Cleveland added around Deshaun Watson this offseason by trading for Elijah Moore and drafting Cedric Tillman. Watson, who’s beginning his first full year in Cleveland, will be up against a Cincinnati secondary that lost both starting safeties in free agency.

The AFC North is sure to be one of the toughest, if not the toughest, divisions in the NFL and it could be home to one of its tightest races. Keep an eye on the quarterback play Sunday in Cleveland as Burrow returns from injury and Watson tries to shake off his poor performance in 2022.

Matt Verderame’s pick: Bengals -2.5, over 47.5 (Cincinnati 27, Cleveland 22)

Gilberto Manzano’s pick: Bengals -2.5, under 47.5 (Cincinnati 24, Cleveland 20)

Kyle Wood’s pick: Bengals -2.5, under 47.5 (Cincinnati 23, Cleveland 20)

4. Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants

The Cowboys have beaten Jones's Giants four consecutive games :: Ed Mulholland/USA TODAY Sports

• Game info: Sunday, Sep. 10 | 8:20 p.m. ET | NBC
• Location: MetLife Stadium | East Rutherford, N.J.
• Spread: Cowboys -3.5 (+100) | Giants +3.5 (-125)
• Moneyline: DAL (-167) | NYG (+140)
• Total: 46.5. Over (-110) | Under (-118)

The first Sunday Night Football game of the 2023 season will pit two playoff teams from a season ago against each other in a divisional showdown. The Cowboys will travel to New Jersey to take on the Giants in prime time riding a four-game winning streak over their NFC East rivals. Dallas is favored by more than a field goal on the road against a New York team that posted an NFL-best 13–4 record against the spread a year ago.

Coach Brian Daboll tapped into Daniel Jones’s rushing ability and led the Giants to a surprise playoff appearance. Still, the odds are against his team returning, despite an offseason that saw reinforcements arrive on offense and defense, including Darren Waller and Bobby Okereke. The Cowboys improved, trading receiver Brandin Cooks and cornerback Stephon Gilmore, and spent the rest of the summer keeping the roster together.

Watch to find out what the Dallas offense looks like with Mike McCarthy calling the plays and to see Don “Wink” Martindale dial up the pressure on Dak Prescott, who could be without starting guard Tyler Smith (hamstring).

Verderame’s pick: Giants +3.5, under 46.5 (Dallas 23, New York 20)

Manzano’s pick: Giants +3.5, under 46.5 (New York 20, Dallas 17)

Wood’s pick: Cowboys -3.5, under 46.5 (Dallas 24, New York 17)

5. San Francisco 49ers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Purdy will start Sunday against the Steelers after spending most of his offseason rehabbing from an arm injury suffered in the NFC championship against the Eagles :: Bill Streicher/USA TODAY Sports

• Game info: Sunday, Sep. 10 | 1 p.m. ET | Fox
• Location: Acrisure Stadium | Pittsburgh
• Spread: 49ers -1.5 (-133) | Steelers +1.5 (+105)
• Moneyline: SF (-137) | PIT (+115)
• Total: 40.5. Over (-125) | Under (+100)

The Steelers are home underdogs against a 49ers team that just signed Nick Bosa to a five-year, $170 million extension, making him the highest-paid defensive player in history. It remains to be seen how much Bosa will play against the Steelers, and tight end George Kittle could be out with a groin injury. Compare that to a Pittsburgh team that expects to be at full health and is led by second-year quarterback Kenny Pickett, who’s expected to make a leap after drawing rave reviews throughout camp.

Even if Bosa plays sparingly and Kittle is out, San Francisco still has Javon Hargrave, whom it added to its defensive front this offseason, and a stacked group of skill-position players, headlined by Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk. Those three will help make life easy on Brock Purdy, another second-year signal-caller, who went from Mr. Irrelevant to NFC championship starter last season. The Steelers addressed their weaknesses in the offseason, adding along the offensive line (Isaac Seumalo and Broderick Jones) and in the secondary (Joey Porter Jr. and Patrick Peterson) during the draft and in free agency.

This over/under is one of the lowest of the week as Kyle Shanahan and Mike Tomlin, two of the top coaches in the league, are set to meet in the Steel City.

Verderame’s pick: Steelers +2.5, under 40.5 (Pittsburgh 19, San Francisco 16)

Manzano’s pick: Steelers +2.5, over 40.5 (Pittsburgh 27, San Francisco 24)

Wood’s pick: Steelers +2.5, over 40.5 (San Francisco 21, Pittsburgh 20)

Final thoughts

Verderame: I love the Steelers as a surprise AFC playoff team, if we can even call them that anymore. This is a tough spot for the Niners, who just signed Bosa to an extension and could be without tight end George Kittle (groin). It’s also a cross-country game in the early window. Give me Pittsburgh in a close one.

Manzano: The Cowboys will be good this season, but I couldn’t take the -3.5 line for a road game against a divisional rival, especially with this being Dak Prescott’s first game with coach Mike McCarthy as the play-caller. Daniel Jones is already familiar with coach Brian Daboll, and the team provided their $40 million–per-year QB with a stud tight end in Darren Waller. Take the dog bet, and expect the Giants to push for an NFC wild-card playoff spot.

Wood: I don’t want to overthink this one. Yes, the Jets gave Josh Allen fits last season (eight sacks, two interceptions and just one passing touchdown in two games) and beat the Bills at home for the first time since 2017. But even with Aaron Rodgers in a new shade of green, Buffalo has the edge on offense, and continuity is on its side. I like the Bills on the road, where they’ve been one of the best teams in football the past few years.