The Buccaneers Lost Tom Brady, But Not a Path to Win the NFC South

After saying goodbye to one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time, Tampa Bay is playing like it has nothing else to lose—and it’s working.

Baker Mayfield is making Patrick Mahomes–like sidearm throws to Cade Otton as he surges toward the turf. Mike Evans, at the age of 30, is running full steam at cornerbacks, lowering his shoulder and, instead of trucking someone, is barrel rolling over their backs and picking up extra yardage. Vita Vea is comically lifting two humans and pressing them into the backfield, making Devin White’s path to the backfield easier than an escape from Arkham Asylum.

The Buccaneers have started the season against two teams—the Vikings and Bears—that will be picking in the top 10 of next year’s draft. Those teams are a combined 0–4. Both of them may end up starting a different quarterback in 2024 than they are now. (I’m willing to wait another week to work myself up about Justin Fields if you are, too.) However, that does not mean we should dismiss what Tampa Bay is doing. Next week’s Monday Night Football game against the Eagles could show us, with a bit of definitiveness, if the Bucs might have been the team we all missed on this preseason (this, coming from a guy who picked them to win three games for the entirety of the season).

Mayfield threw for 317 yards Sunday :: Kim Klement Neitzel/USA TODAY Sports

When you lose Tom Brady, you are supposed to recede. Having Brady in your organization is like having your body supported by some kind of super steroid. Then, when every trace of the drug exits the body, you flatline. You try to make up for what has been chemically provided, and only through consistent attrition can you regain your body’s natural efficiency. The Patriots may now just be recovering. It makes sense. Brady game plans. Brady doesn’t make mistakes. Coaches have said he makes their job easier. So have receivers, offensive linemen, tight ends, defensive coordinators and roving beer salesmen.

So why didn’t that happen to the Buccaneers? How about a theory: They gambled on a handful of people who have no other choice but to make this work. Todd Bowles is a second-chance head coach, which means he is a last-chance head coach. Mayfield, outside of an incredible start with the Rams in what was the only interesting Thursday Night Football game of the last three years, has spent the recent seasons being quietly pushed aside by a pair of franchises. It would be hard to imagine another team investing in him as a long-term option. Evans would like to get one more monster contract before his long and storied career comes to a close. (He may be headed toward a Crypto-Barron payday if he can keep up this torrid pace throughout a regular season. At this point, it may be cheaper to just hand him a slice of Manchester United.)

Again, the Buccaneers could always come back to earth, even if the realities of their division are coming into view: the Falcons are good but clearly not infallible, so are the Saints. The Panthers are starting a rookie quarterback, and with that, will likely have to wait until at least the mid season point before they see steady progress. Each team has a kind of obvious flaw. They are a group of one-armed punchers. This is a low(er) bar to clear.

Tampa Bay, on the other hand, was always a team that was easier to bury because of who it let go of. A smarter person than I may have pointed out that the Bucs are still comprised of the remnants of a Super Bowl–winning team. Brady is not there, but the bones of a roster that was good enough to lure him for his post-Patriots revenge tour, is still very much alive.

To end Sunday’s game, the Buccaneers pick-sixed Fields, who was so incapable of moving the ball against the defense that he was mostly relegated to a hopeful screen passer down the stretch. It very much could just be a reflection of Fields, just like Tampa Bay’s win over the Vikings was very much a reflection of the fact that Minnesota was incredibly lucky last year and is bottoming out in 2023 the way it was supposed to in 2022.

Or, it could be a harbinger of a year to come; a message to those of us who assumed that losing Brady was like losing an organ, when, in reality, the Bucs have so much left to work with.