NFL Week 5 Preview: Best Games, Best Bets, Predictions

Our experts have ATS and over/under picks for the five biggest games of the week, including the Cowboys-49ers showdown on Sunday night.

SI Editorial | Oct 5, 2023

NFL Week 5 Preview: Best Games, Best Bets, Predictions /

The Cowboys and 49ers have had many memorable battles over the years, but don’t remind Dak Prescott about past meetings.

Prescott appeared agitated after a reporter reminded him of his lackluster performance during the postseason loss to the 49ers that ended the Cowboys’ 2022 season. But don’t worry, Dak. We only look forward here.

The 49ers (4–0) hosting the Cowboys (3–1) is without a doubt the best game on the Week 5 NFL schedule. This game, however, lost a little sizzle after the Cowboys fell to the Cardinals in Week 3. Oh, wait, gotta look forward.

All jokes aside, this is still a massive game that could have playoff implications down the line. Dallas quickly recovered from the loss in Arizona by crushing New England, 38–3. The Cowboys remain one of the best teams in the NFC despite the season-ending knee injury to cornerback Trevon Diggs. As for the 49ers, they cruised during the first month of the season but they haven’t been tested, with wins against the Steelers, Rams, Giants and Cardinals.

But let’s not forget about the undefeated Eagles when it comes to top teams in the NFC. They’ll be tested by the pesky Rams in one of the more intriguing games of the week.

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Alright, let’s continue looking ahead. Here are the five best games to bet on this week.

1. Dallas Cowboys vs. San Francisco 49ers

Micah Parson and the Dallas defense will have their hands full against the 49ers. — Micah Parson and the Dallas defense will have their hands full against the 49ers

San Francisco has sent Dallas packing two postseasons in a row and the way the standings are shaking out, a third consecutive playoff meeting is not out of the question come January. After the letdown of the Dolphins-Bills game a week ago, this Sunday Night Football showdown is perhaps the best matchup of the young season. It features two top-five offenses, a pair of top-three defenses and the favorites to win both Offensive and Defensive Player of the Year: Christian McCaffrey and Micah Parsons.

The Cowboys bounced back from their shocking loss to the Cardinals by beating the Patriots 38–3, the worst defeat of Bill Belichick’s career. It was another clinic for defensive coordinator Dan Quinn’s unit, which has scored as many touchdowns (three) as the Bengals’ offense this season. Prescott hasn’t been asked to do all that much to this point thanks to that league-best defense, but that will likely change this week.

The 49ers stomped out Arizona, 35–16, behind McCaffrey’s four-touchdown day for their 14th straight regular-season win. Deebo Samuel and George Kittle were hardly involved on offense and it didn't even matter — the bulk of Brock Purdy’s passing attempts went to Brandon Aiyuk and McCaffrey, who combined for over 300 total yards.

Even though the last two games have gone to San Francisco, both were decided by one possession and both times Dallas had the ball late with a chance to tie it or win outright. This contest could come down to how the Cowboys perform in the red zone. So far they’ve been one of the worst offenses inside the 20, but the 49ers have had their own struggles defending near the goal line.

Verderame’s pick: Cowboys +3.5, Under 44.5 (San Francisco 23, Dallas 20)
Manzano’s pick: Cowboys +3.5, Under 44.5 (Dallas 23, San Francisco 20)
Wood’s pick: 49ers -3.5, Under 44.5 (San Francisco 23, Dallas 19)

2. Philadelphia Eagles vs. Los Angeles Rams

Jalen Hurts hasn’t played at an MVP level yet this season, but he’s got the Eagles atop the NFC East at 4-0 :: Bill Streicher/USA TODAY Sports

Philadelphia and Los Angeles both emerged victorious in overtime last week. The Eagles managed to stay undefeated by edging out the Commanders, 34–31, while the Rams defeated the Colts, 29–23.

Perhaps the biggest storyline surrounding this game is the pending return of Cooper Kupp. He returned to practice this week and could potentially play for the first time since Week 10 of 2022. His return would be a boon for Matthew Stafford against a Philadelphia defense that ranks bottom 10 in passing yards allowed. Even without the 2021 receiving Triple Crown winner, Stafford is second in passing yards and rookie Puka Nacua has the second-most receiving yards.

The Eagles are one of two remaining unbeaten teams, but they’ve hardly been dominant. All but one of their wins have been decided by six points or fewer and their defense has regressed due to injuries and offseason departures. The offense is still one of the league’s best as it ranks fifth in points per game (29.5) and second in rushing yards. D’Andre Swift has been a revelation for the running game but Jalen Hurts has yet to return to MVP-level play.

These teams are well-positioned to take advantage of each other’s weaknesses. Philadelphia can run on Los Angeles, which in turn can pass against its opponent, especially if Kupp is active. This game has all the makings of a shootout with the second-highest over/under of the week.

Verderame’s pick: Eagles -4.5, Over 50.5 (Philadelphia 30, Los Angeles 22)
Manzano’s pick: Eagles -4.5, Under 50.5 (Philadelphia 27, Los Angeles 20)
Wood’s pick: Eagles -4.5, Over 50.5 (Philadelphia 31, Los Angeles 24)

3. Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Buffalo Bills

Bills quarterback Josh Allen and receiver Stefon Diggs celebrate a catch. — Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs connected on three TD passes last week vs. Miami :: Rich Barnes/USA TODAY Sports

Jacksonville has the advantage of staying put across the pond for its second consecutive game in London, but now it’s up against a Buffalo team that just obliterated Miami. After a 48–20 thrashing of the Dolphins, the Bills have outscored their opponents by an average of 30 points during their three-game winning streak.

The Jaguars picked up a much-needed victory over the Falcons last week. Jacksonville had dropped two straight heading into its trip to England before its 23–7 win over Atlanta. Trevor Lawrence was sharp in that game but the offense hasn’t yet shown the ability to keep up with the likes of Buffalo while the defense has been up and down.

Josh Allen and the Bills were a buzzsaw Sunday against the Dolphins. Allen threw four touchdowns, three of which went to Stefon Diggs, ran another in himself and is now the MVP favorite. The biggest change in the offense has been the emergence of a reliable running game outside of Allen. James Cook has the seventh-most rushing yards in the league and Buffalo is in the top 10 as a team.

The last time these teams met was in 2021 when the Jaguars, who went on to have the No. 1 pick that year, beat a playoff-bound Bills team, 9–6. Buffalo’s offense has drawn plenty of attention, but its defense ranks second in points allowed per game (13.8). That edge might end up deciding this game.

Verderame’s pick: Jaguars +5.5, Over 48.5 (Buffalo 31, Jacksonville 27)
Manzano’s pick: Bills -5.5, Under 48.5 (Buffalo 27, Jacksonville 17)
Wood’s pick: Bills -5.5, Under 48.5 (Buffalo 27, Jacksonville 20)

4. Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

The steelers need a big game from T.J. Watt, who has six sacks through the first four games :: Charles LeClaire / USA TODAY Sports

Pittsburgh has dominated Baltimore in recent series history, having won five of the last six games. Of course, Lamar Jackson was only active for two of those and he hasn’t beat the Steelers since 2019.

Both teams enter Week 5 after being on the opposite end of one-sided results Sunday. The Ravens upset the Browns in Cleveland, 28–3, while Pittsburgh was upset in Houston, 30–6. The Steelers now have two tight wins and two blowouts losses on their resume, which helps explain why they’re underdogs at home.

Baltimore has been shorthanded for much of the season and that might be the case again this week with tackle Ronnie Stanley and cornerback Marlon Humphrey both questionable. Nevertheless, the defense is tied with the 49ers for the third-fewest points allowed (14.5) and Jackson looks ready to return to MVP form with eight total touchdowns to two turnovers.

The Steelers have been the opposite with a bottom-five offense (15.5 points per game) and a bottom-10 defense (25). Kenny Pickett and Najee Harris have both had a rough go through four games and even T.J. Watt’s six sacks haven’t been enough to elevate the defense to the level of previous Pittsburgh teams.

Even though the Steelers have had the Ravens’ number in recent years, the largest scoring margin in the last six meetings is five points and four of those games were decided by three points or less. These rivals always play each other tight.

Verderame’s pick: Steelers +4.5, Under 38.5 (Baltimore 20, Pittsburgh 18)
Manzano’s pick: Ravens -4.5, Over 38.5 (Baltimore 24, Pittsburgh 17)
Wood’s pick: Steelers +4.5, Over 38.5 (Baltimore 23, Pittsburgh 20)

5. Houston Texans vs. Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson — Bijan Robinson has been one of the league’s top offensive rookies :: John David Mercer/USA Today Sports

Houston and Atlanta are two teams trending in opposite directions, which makes this game an interesting inflection point for both. Behind the play of rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud, the Texans have won two straight, outscoring the Jaguars and Steelers 67–23. Conversely, the Falcons were outscored 43–13 by the Lions and Jaguars in back-to-back losses.

Stroud is currently fourth in the league in passing yards, his top target Nico Collins has the fifth-most receiving yards in the league and fellow first-year player Tank Dell flashed as well with a 145-yard outing. DeMeco Ryans’s defense has held its own so far by limiting opponents to fewer than 20 points per game on average.

Atlanta’s offense has stalled the last two weeks when Desmond Ridder was forced to pass more than usual. He has one touchdown, two interceptions and 11 sacks during that stretch and the Falcons have found the end zone just once. Rookie Bijan Robinson is tied for the third-most rushing yards in the league but the ground game hasn’t been successful enough to prop up the NFL’s worst passing offense.

Stroud will be tested by an Atlanta secondary that has surrendered the fifth-fewest yards through the air this season. If he and Collins are contained, the Texans can turn to Dameon Pierce, who’s coming off a season-best performance. The burden will be on the Falcons to build a lead early or risk running into the same issue they did the last two weeks when they were forced to air it out and stray from their run-first game plan.

Verderame’s pick: Falcons -1.5, Under 41.5 (Atlanta 19, Houston 17)
Manzano’s pick: Texans +1.5, Over 41.5 (Houston 24, Atlanta 20)
Wood’s pick: Texans +1.5, Over 41.5 (Houston 23, Atlanta 19)

Final Thoughts

Verderame: Don’t be surprised if the Steelers find a way to win at home against the rival Ravens. This is the type of game that gets sloppy, ugly and comes down to the wire. So why pick Baltimore? Because the Ravens have the far better quarterback in Lamar Jackson and a kicker in Justin Tucker who will hit anything inside 65 yards. If Baltimore wins, the Ravens will be 3–0 on the road in the AFC North with a clear advantage in the divisional race moving forward.

Manzano: The 49ers cruised through the first month of the season, but they haven’t been tested, facing the Steelers, Rams, Giants and Cardinals. Expect Dallas’ stout defense to somewhat contain the 49ers’ offense to make this game competitive. Take the points with the Cowboys, and certainly do the same with the Texans. People still aren’t buying into what rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud has done the past month. He’s done a lot more than Falcons quarterback Desmond Ridder.

Wood: The 49ers haven’t lost since last November. During that stretch they’re 11–3 against the spread overall and 7–1 at home. Count on them to keep that up against the Cowboys. I also think this will be a good week for the Eagles and Bills, who will handle competition from within their respective conferences. And though I like the Ravens to notch their third win over an AFC North team, don’t bet against Mike Tomlin as an underdog, especially at home.

Published Oct 5, 2023

SI EDITORIAL