I, Conor Orr, Admit I Was Wrong About the Patriots

Something is irreparably broken in New England, even if one MMQB writer didn’t see it yet in the preseason.

I think we’ve all said things in our lives we wish we could take back. Maybe you commented on someone looking pregnant only to find out they weren’t. Maybe you inadvertently offended someone’s deceased relative. Maybe you once told a painfully tired parent how your hamster also has a hard time listening and going to bed on time.

Or, you may have just picked the Patriots to win the AFC East before the 2023 season and acted like a smug jackass about it. If you did that last thing, let me know because so far I think I’m the only one.

New England was roundly destroyed 34–0 by the Saints on Sunday. This, a week after the Patriots were roundly destroyed 38–3 by the Cowboys. While it’s hard to predict exactly what will be extrapolated from this—is it a week where we incorrectly predict the demise of Bill Belichick or the necessary ouster of his quarterback?—the truth is that something is irreparably broken with the Patriots. Of course, having a top cornerback and pass rusher both out with injuries, especially with that defense, doesn’t help. But the Patriots have made a living over the past two decades by either defining the curve, or at least staying pleasantly ahead of it. Even as the post–Tom Brady losses started to pile up, there was evidence that the grist of the dynasty was still in there, somewhere. The Patriots may not have been winning games at the same clip, but they were an absolute pain in the neck to face off against each week.

Belichick has suffered humiliating losses in back-to-back weeks :: David Butler II/USA TODAY Sports

But now we have some dubious stats. This is the first time in Patriots history that they’ve lost two or more games in a row by 34 or more points. It’s the first time in Robert Kraft’s tenure that the Patriots have lost by 30 or more twice in one season. While Kraft did not become a successful owner by making flash decisions with a limited sample size, this is the kind of two-week period in Foxborough that will linger.

My thought? While this is not definitive proof that Bill Belichick can no longer coach or that Mac Jones can not be a serviceable NFL quarterback, it is proof that the Patriots have allowed their house to fall out of order. I think it’s proof, to some degree, that the way the Patriots were winning games for the majority of Belichick’s tenure is no longer attainable. I think it’s proof that abandoning the idea that a team can simply coach smarter and prepare better and compile enough little wins to topple more talented opponents is the only way forward.

Back to my preseason prediction. I’m not running away from it, I promise. I went to Foxborough to see them in person this offseason and saw a defense that was dominant in practice, and a pair of quarterbacks who were responding well under the stress. In essence, a good football team. I saw enough examples of Belichick’s schematic greatness last year to buoy that opinion. I thought Bill O’Brien would be a salve. And, like, they did that cool field goal block thing!

I thought, much like longtime Patriots insider Tom Curran, that they would simply transport back to a time when they “big brained” every opponent they came up against. I thought their floor was much higher. I thought the rest of the division was too combustible, and that the Patriots’ little pirate ship would just find ways to putt-putt up alongside the much larger vessels all across the NFL and turn the thing into flotsam.

The reason that hasn’t happened is because the NFL has evolved into a talent hoarding league. The best teams in the NFL right now, the 49ers, Eagles, Chiefs, Bills and Cowboys, are not only well coached, but they are so embarrassingly thick with talent that they are mauling people. There is an SEC–Sun Belt type divide right now between the most-talented and least-talented rosters in the league.

After losing Brady, the Patriots did not commit to either a complete teardown and rebuild, or the kind of Buccaneers- or Rams-style collecting of quality top-tier talent to keep them competitive or ensure that, soon, they would be. They neither have the Christian McCaffreys of the world (franchise-altering stars who were available via trade or free agency) or the Micah Parsonses of the world (franchise-altering players who were available in the top third of the draft).

Belichick needs to have realized by now that his philosophy cannot transcend bad coaching (as in his Matt Patricia and Joe Judge offensive phase) and it cannot transcend the NFL as it is right now. I won’t call it bad roster management, because Belichick’s strong middle-class philosophy was so potent for so long. But I will call it dated. All along, there were just enough sensible alterations, economically savvy pickups and unexpectedly close games to make us believe that it just took New England a little longer to stabilize itself.

The Patriot Way is defined by the doing of one’s job, and at the moment, the task at Belichick’s disposal is now to pick a course. He deserves that chance, as I have noted. But only if there is an acknowledgement that where we are now is a result of a kind of gross negligence. Belichick can be ahead of the curve again, so long as he realizes how far behind it he is now.