NFL Week 6 Preview: Best Games, Best Bets, Predictions

Our experts have ATS and over/under picks for the five biggest games of the week, including a potential shootout in Cincinnati and an interconference battle on Monday night.

SI Editorial | Oct 12, 2023

NFL Week 6 Preview: Best Games, Best Bets, Predictions /

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Suddenly, the Lions are heavy NFC North favorites and have snuck into many pundits’ top-five power rankings.

They’re no longer the same ol’ Lions, but this surging squad will get a tough road test for one of the most intriguing games on the Week 6 schedule. Detroit will put its three-game winning streak on the line against the Buccaneers, who have also had a fast start.

But that might not be the most entertaining game because the Seahawks vs. the Bengals is shaping up to be a shootout. Joe Burrow’s injured calf didn’t give him much fits during his three-touchdown performance against the Cardinals last week.

As for another intriguing game, the Cowboys, who are coming off an embarrassing loss to the 49ers, will look to get back on track vs. Justin Herbert and the Chargers.

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We’re keeping a close eye on these three games, but we haven’t forgotten about the 49ers at the Browns, and Colts at the Jaguars. Here are the five best games to bet on this week.

1. Detroit Lions vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff — The Lions are one of the hottest teams in the NFL. but Jared Goff has not been as productive on the road as he’s been at home :: Lon Horwedel/USA TODAY Sports

The Lions have lived up to the preseason hype so far as they ride a three-game winning streak into Tampa. The Buccaneers, on the other hand, have surpassed expectations throughout a 3–1 start and now they host one of the top teams in the NFC with a rest advantage in their favor.

Detroit was last seen mauling Carolina, 42–24, without Amon-Ra St. Brown (abdomen) and Jahmyr Gibbs (hamstring). Both players could return against Tampa Bay, a top-10 defense. Jared Goff enjoyed one of his best games against the Panthers at home last week but his production historically tends to regress on the road.

The Buccaneers’ bye week followed a 26–9 romp of the Saints at the Superdome, by far their biggest win of the season. Baker Mayfield tossed three touchdowns and the defense held New Orleans to three field goals.

Tampa Bay’s lone loss came against the Eagles, another NFC contender. The defense was unable to slow down Philadelphia’s running game and the offense never found a rhythm. That might also be the case against Detroit, which has graded out as one of the best teams on both sides of the ball through the first month of the season. The modest over/under indicates this could be more of a slugest than a shootout.

Verderame’s pick: Lions -3.5, Over 43.5 (Detroit 24, Tampa Bay 20)
Manzano’s pick: Lions -3.5, Over 43.5 (Detroit 27, Tampa Bay 20)
Wood’s pick: Lions -3.5, Under 43.5 (Detroit 24, Tampa Bay 17)

2. Dallas Cowboys vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Chargers running back Austin Ekeler jogs without a helmet during practice. — The Chargers welcome back Austin Ekeler, who’s missed a few weeks with an ankle injury :: Kirby Lee/USA Today network

Dallas has dropped two out three three heading into a Monday Night Football matchup with Los Angeles, winner of two in a row. The Cowboys’ offense has struggled since the departure of coordinator Kellen Moore, who’s now in charge of the high-powered Chargers’ offense.

Dak Prescott is in need of a bounceback performance after he threw three interceptions in a 42–10 loss to San Francisco. Los Angeles’ defense, which allows an NFL-worst 299.8 passing yards per game, presents an opportunity to do just that. However, Dallas has struggled on the road since its season-opening blowout win over the Giants with losses to the Cardinals and 49ers since.

After an 0–2 start, Justin Herbert righted the ship with tight wins over the Vikings and Raiders without Austin Ekeler (ankle). After the bye week, the Chargers’ do-it-all back is expected to return Sunday. L.A.’s lackluster defense was also without Joey Bosa (hamstring, toe) and Derwin James (hamstring) against Las Vegas — both players are currently questionable.

This game has one of the tightest spreads of the week and the highest over/under. So far, every Chargers has been decided by seven points or fewer while every Cowboys game has had a margin of eight or more points. Something has to give.

Verderame’s pick: Cowboys -2.5, Over 50.5 (Dallas 33, Los Angeles 27)
Manzano’s pick: Chargers +2.5, Over 50.5 (Los Angeles 30, Dallas 27)
Wood’s pick: Chargers +2.5, Over 50.5 (Dallas 31, Los Angeles 30)

3. San Francisco 49ers vs. Cleveland Browns

49ers defensive end Nick Bosa — Nick Bosa and the 49ers defense face an injury-riddled Cleveland offense :: Kyle Terada/USA TODAY Sports

San Francisco and Cleveland boast two of the top defenses in the NFL. The key difference this weekend is the 49ers might be up against a second-string, rookie quarterback while the Browns will be tasked with slowing down the second-highest-scoring offense in the league.

When Deshaun Watson (shoulder) was out two weeks ago, Dorian Thompson-Robinson threw three picks in a 28–3 loss to Baltimore. Even after the bye week, Watson’s return is no guarantee. Predictably, the Browns’ running game has stalled since Nick Chubb’s season-ending injury and San Francisco has the second-best run defense in football.

The 49ers continued to steamroll their competition Sunday night with a 42–10 statement win over the Cowboys. San Francisco has won 15 consecutive regular-season games and has the best point differential in the NFL (+99) by a wide margin. Brock Purdy has adeptly involved all of his weapons and it feels like every game a different skill-position player takes over.

Even with Watson, it’s difficult to see Cleveland move the ball well enough against the 49ers to keep pace with an offense that’s scored 30-plus points in eight straight regular-season games.

Verderame’s pick: Browns +7.5, Over 36.5 (San Francisco 22, Cleveland 16)
Manzano’s pick: Browns +7.5, Over 36.5 (San Francisco 24, Cleveland 17)
Wood’s pick: 49ers -7.5, Over 36.5 (San Francisco 27, Cleveland 17)

4. Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Indianapolis Colts quarterback Gardner Minshew — With Anthony Richardson on the IR, Gardner Minshew gets to return to Jacksonville as the Colts’ starting quarterback :: Marc Lebryk/USA TODAY Sports

Indianapolis called on backup Gardner Minshew to replace the injured rookie Anthony Richardson again last week and he answered the call. The Colts improved to 3–0 when the veteran signal caller plays at least 50% of snaps with a 23–16 win against the Titans. The Jaguars present a tougher challenge on the road, especially after their 25–20 upset win over the Bills.

Jacksonville is back stateside after a two-game trip to London that saw the team get back in the win column. Trevor Lawrence upped his play in wins over Buffalo and Atlanta and, crucially, the defense stepped up as well. The Jaguars beat Indianapolis 31–21 on the road in the season opener behind Calvin Ridley’s 100-yard outing and three turnovers on defense.

The Colts welcomed Jonathan Taylor back last week, but it was Zack Moss who led the way with 195 total yards and two scores. Between Taylor and Moss, Indianapolis boasts a top-10 rushing offense, which it will put to the test against Jacksonville’s top-five run defense. The Colts finished with just 65 yards on the ground in that season-opening loss, the bulk of which were thanks to Richardson.

Jacksonville has won its last eight at home against Indy and three of its last four overall against its AFC South foe. But remember, this is a revenge game for Minshew, who began his career with the Jaguars in 2019.

Verderame’s pick: Colts +4.5, Under 45.5 (Jacksonville 24, Indianapolis 21)
Manzano’s pick: Colts +4.5, Under 45.5 (Jacksonville 23, Indianapolis 20)
Wood’s pick: Colts +4.5, Under 45.5 (Jacksonville 20, Indianapolis 17)

5. Seattle Seahawks vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Joe Rondone/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK

The Bengals have a chance to prove that they’re indeed back Sunday against the Seahawks. Joe Burrow looked much more like himself in a 34–20 win over the Cardinals in which he and Ja’Marr Chase linked up for three touchdowns. However, Seattle has won its last three, each win more dominant than the last, and is coming off its bye week.

The Seahawks throttled the Giants, 24–3, on Monday Night Football last time out. Geno Smith briefly left that game but returned for the second half of the romp. It was another good game for Kenneth Walker III, who has found the end zone five times in his last three outings. Even more impressive was Seattle’s defense, which racked up 11 sacks and had a defensive touchdown to boot.

Cincinnati’s signs of life were encouraging last week after dropping a 27–3 dud in Tennessee the week before. Even still, its offense has been one of the lowest-scoring units in the league and the defense hasn’t been all that much better. The Bengals could use Tee Higgins (rib) and Chidobe Awuzie (back) back in the lineup against the Seahawks.

Seattle has been stellar on the road so far with an upset over Detroit and a dominant win against New York. It’ll be tough to keep up that level of play in Cincinnati if Burrow and the Bengals look like they did against Arizona, though.

Verderame’s pick: Seahawks +2.5, Over 45.5 (Seattle 28, Cincinnati 20)
Manzano’s pick: Bengals -2.5, Over 45.5 (Cincinnati 33, Seattle 27)
Wood’s pick: Seahawks +2.5, Over 45.5 (Seattle 30, Cincinnati 27)

Final Thoughts

Verderame: The Bengals have to beat Seattle for me to believe in them. Cincinnati led by four points in the fourth quarter against Arizona with an earlier pick-six helping the Bengals to their advantage. It wasn’t a bad showing, but it was far from a dominant performance. Now they get the Seahawks, off a bye, coming in with a 3–1 record. It’s not going to be easy for Cincinnati, which hasn’t looked solid for 60 minutes in any game this season.

Manzano: The Jaguars’ offense got back on track during the upset win vs. the Bills, but I don’t see the unit playing that well against the Colts’ ferocious defensive front. This will be a close AFC South matchup, despite the Colts playing without Anthony Richardson. Backup Gardner Minshew has already won two games this season, and has a dominant ground game to lean on with the duo of Zack Moss and Jonathan Taylor.

Wood: I like the underdogs this week. The Chargers are in a good spot to keep things close at home against the Cowboys and the same goes for the Colts versus the Jaguars. As for the Seahawks, I like them to pull off the upset outright against a Bengals team that looks like it might be back, though the jury is still out. With or without Watson, I think the 49ers roll in Cleveland the way they have against almost everyone this year.

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Published Oct 12, 2023

SI EDITORIAL