Fact or Fiction: Dolphins’ Tua Tagovailoa Is the Front-Runner for 2023 MVP

Miami’s quarterback has led one of the most prolific offenses in the NFL this season, and he further separated himself from the competition Sunday.

Tua Tagovailoa and Brock Purdy have emerged as MVP candidates for the Dolphins and 49ers, respectively. Not many saw that coming, but they earned it by helping their teams stack wins through the first six games of the season.

But Tagovailoa might have separated himself from the competition with how impressive he was Sunday against the Panthers, helping the Dolphins improve to 5–1. Purdy struggled during the loss against the Browns, who might have the best defense in the league.

After another exciting Sunday in the NFL, let’s examine a few narratives to decide whether they’re fact or fiction—starting with Tagovailoa’s MVP campaign.

Tua Tagovailoa is the MVP front-runner

Manzano’s view: Fact

Tagovailoa is leading an offense that is breaking scoring records :: Jasen Vinlove/USA TODAY Sports

For the stragglers, it’s time to acknowledge that the Dolphins’ offense wouldn’t work as well without Tua Tagovailoa, who delivered another standout performance Sunday. Many are quick to discredit Tagovailoa because he is surrounded by speedy weapons, and he benefits from coach Mike McDaniel’s offensive scheme. But the Dolphins needed their QB in Week 6 to help them overcome a 14–0 deficit vs. the Panthers. Tagovailoa completed 21-of-31 passes for 262 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions. The narrative that Tagovailoa has too much help is tiring. Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen also have plenty of help. Tagovailoa’s numbers suggest he’s playing better than those star quarterbacks, making him the early MVP favorite.

Bengals are Super Bowl contenders again

Manzano’s view: Fact

I was so wrong for giving up on the Bengals after a 1–3 start. Technically, I never forked them as playoff contenders, but I did recently write that they’re no longer Super Bowl contenders because of the tough schedule they faced with a hobbled Joe Burrow. So, again, I was wrong, and that became clear after the Bengals recorded an impressive 17–13 win against the Seahawks. Cincinnati is now .500 heading into a bye week, which will allow Burrow more time to heal his injured calf. With the way the Bengals have played the past two weeks, I wouldn’t be surprised if they beat the 49ers and Bills coming off the bye. Burrow is playing like himself again, and the Bengals’ defense deserves plenty of credit for containing the Seahawks’ high-octane offense. Cincinnati sacked Geno Smith four times and forced him into two interceptions.

Titans need to play Will Levis over Malik Willis

Manzano’s view: Fiction

I wanted to declare this a fact, but it’s too early to thrust second-round rookie Will Levis into a starting role. Second-year quarterback Malik Willis filled in for Ryan Tannehill after he exited Sunday’s loss vs. the Ravens with an ankle injury during the fourth quarter. If Tannehill is forced to miss games, the Titans might not even consider starting Levis over Willis. They saw firsthand how much Willis struggled last year after he was forced to start as a rookie for the injured veteran signal-caller. Willis, a 2022 third-round pick, now has experience and is probably the best option to keep the Titans (2–4) afloat in the AFC South. If Tennessee continues to lose games, and Willis struggles, then it’ll need to see what it has in Levis. But no need to rush a rookie onto the field with 11 games left in the regular season.

Broncos need to consider trade offers for Patrick Surtain II

Manzano’s view: Fact

The door is open for Surtain to be traded.  :: Ron Chenoy/USA TODAY Sports

If the Broncos truly want to rebuild, they need to seriously consider trade offers for All-Pro cornerback Patrick Surtain II. The Broncos might not be willing to part with one of the best young players in the league, but he’s also the lone player on the roster who could garner at least one first-round pick in a trade. With several roster holes, the Broncos need a handful of high draft picks to repair the mess the organization created by trading a boatload of draft picks for quarterback Russell Wilson. Sean Payton attempted the quick fix with this roster, but Denver is now 1–5, with an offense that has struggled to score points and a defense that has allowed points at a historic rate through six games. The Broncos will probably be stuck with Wilson’s contract for another year or two, but they can at least start the rebuild now by trading a handful of their best players, including Surtain, before the Oct. 31 deadline.

Commanders will make the playoffs

Manzano’s view: Fiction

The Commanders improved to 3–3 after a road win against the Falcons, but they’ve been too inconsistent this season to believe they’re going to make the playoffs. Winning the NFC East will be tough with the Eagles in the division, and there are many quality teams in the mix for the conference’s three wild-card spots. Sam Howell and the Washington offense struggled for most of the day against the Falcons’ stout offense. But the Commanders defense stepped up by forcing the Falcons into three turnovers—and also contained Atlanta back Bijan Robinson to 37 rushing yards and no touchdowns.