2023 NFL Midseason: First-Half Surprises, Second-Half Story Lines, Super Bowl Predictions

Which teams are ticketed for Super Bowl LVIII in Las Vegas, and which are likely focused on the 2024 draft? Plus, can a wide receiver win MVP, which teams have something to prove and much more.

The NFL season is officially at its midpoint, with nine weeks down and nine to go. This week we have already dished midseason grades to all 32 teams (NFC, AFC), so now let’s take the opportunity to gather our staff for a look back at the first half and a look ahead to the second.

Each of our writers and editors will share a first-half surprise, an intriguing second-half story line to watch and an updated (or not) prediction for Super Bowl LVIII.

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First-half surprises

The Giants were a playoff team in 2022, but this season has not come close to living up :: Brad Penner/USA TODAY Sports

Albert Breer: The Giants’ collapse. I understand how injuries play into this. New York’s been without its franchise left tackle and quarterback for stretches (and will now be without Daniel Jones for the rest of the year), and that would undermine anyone’s ability to compete at a high level. Also, last year’s surge under first-year coach Brian Daboll and GM Joe Schoen did have some smoke and mirrors to it and, to their credit, their measured team-building moves since then have reflected that. Still, I didn’t expect 2–7, or that just getting to 2–7 would require a furious comeback against Arizona and a goal-line stand and blocked 27-yard field goal against Washington to not be 0–9. The Cowboys, Raiders, Seahawks, 49ers and Dolphins all beat the Giants by 15 points or more. Now, that the Giants have taken a step back doesn’t surprise me in any way. That it’s been such a massive one certainly does.

Conor Orr: My most pleasant surprise of the first half has been the rapid development of C.J. Stroud. This is the kind of thing you cannot test for or evaluate in the predraft process. What happens when you are thrown into a new environment where everything is more difficult than it has ever been? How do your brain and body react? Stroud went from a red-flag-laden preseason to absolutely toasting a Todd Bowles defense and scoring at will with less than a minute remaining on the clock. That is a monstrous leap. Which begs the follow-up question: Without destroying Stroud via our runaway hype train, where could he end up at the end of the season. On the latest edition of The MMQB Podcast, I asked Albert Breer whether there are eight better quarterbacks taking the field in the NFL right now. We had a hard time coming up with enough players we’d take over the rookie.

Gilberto Manzano: The way Mark Davis reacted to a Raiders fan who pleaded with him to fire Josh McDaniels made it seem as if Davis was committed to giving McDaniels at least the entirety of the 2023 season. That made it more shocking to see Davis pull the plug on McDaniels after 25 games as the coach in Las Vegas. Davis also fired GM Dave Ziegler and offensive coordinator Mick Lombardi. He essentially made the Patriot Way disappear in one day, giving Raider Nation a memorable Halloween.

The swift moves were surprising, but Davis made the right decision. Usually I’m in favor of giving coaches at least three seasons to build a winning culture. But McDaniels took over a playoff team that then acquired Davante Adams and made them worse in 2022. The excuse then was that McDaniels and Ziegler needed to restructure the roster with his type of players. In other words, they wanted more former Patriots, which they got after ditching Derek Carr and signing Jimmy Garoppolo, despite his failing his initial physical. With the changes, the offense was abysmal for eight games this season. Star players such as Adams and Josh Jacobs expressed frustrations through the media. It was a huge red flag that McDaniels, whose background is on offense, couldn’t get the Raiders to crack 20 points in a game, despite having his quarterback with a handful of playmakers, including wide receiver Jakobi Meyers (another former Patriot).

Unfortunately for McDaniels, he had no scapegoat because defensive coordinator Patrick Graham turned the Raiders’ defense into a quality unit this season, which has been a positive surprise for the Silver and Black. McDaniels had to go, but Davis can’t afford to miss on another coaching hire. He whiffed on trying to recreate the Patriot Way and the old Raider Way (when he brought back Jon Gruden). Time to find your own way, son of Al Davis.

Matt Verderame: I’ll take the Jets’ being alive in the playoff race despite losing Aaron Rodgers. One must give credit to Zach Wilson, Robert Saleh and the salty Jets defense. Despite losing the league’s best offseason acquisition, New York is in the AFC playoff race.

When Rodgers tore his Achilles in the first quarter of their first game, it appeared the Jets would once again be an afterthought. They beat the Bills that Monday night, but the belief was it was a great win, not real hope. Instead, New York is now 4–4 and, while it still has ample work ahead, could conceivably make the playoffs with great defense and an offense light on mistakes.

But can the Jets actually finish the job, and not just be a fun story but make the playoffs? We saw this team make a similar charge last season, beginning 6–3 before losing seven of its last eight. Looking at the future slate, New York has to play the Dolphins twice while also drawing the Bills on the road. The other games, though, are all winnable. The Jets draw the Commanders, Texans and Falcons at home while also seeing the Raiders and Patriots on the road. The pivot point could be in Week 17, when the Jets visit the Browns on Thursday night.

It’s always dangerous to play the schedule game, but New York has a real shot of winning five games with its defense alone. Of course, the Jets will need Wilson to avoid turnovers. In the Jets’ last six games, Wilson hasn’t been prolific, but he hasn’t thrown the ball at the other team, being picked off only once.

The Jets aren’t going to win the AFC East. They aren’t going to host a playoff game. But they’re fighting for a postseason berth, something New York hasn’t earned since 2012. Perhaps this time, they’ll find a way.

The charmed start to Purdy’s career has taken a turn in recent weeks :: Albert Cesare/USA TODAY Network

John Pluym: Niners quarterback Brock Purdy started his career with 10 consecutive regular-season victories. And now he’s lost three straight, and it feels like the world is coming to an end. Just kidding, of course. But should 49ers fans be concerned about Purdy and their team? Yes. San Francisco was 5–0 and looked like the best team in the league before losing to the Browns in terrible weather conditions. And then Purdy threw a couple of picks against the Vikings and two more against the Bengals. At 5–3, the Niners are tied with the Seahawks atop the NFC West. So all is not lost. But Purdy needs to protect the ball, and he needs a healthy Trent Williams at left tackle and a healthy Deebo Samuel at wide receiver. Having both on the field should go a long way toward fixing the offense. On the other side of the ball, San Francisco needs more from Nick Bosa. The 49ers made him the highest-paid nonquarterback in NFL history, and he’s rewarded them with only three sacks. That’s not good enough. If San Francisco is going to make any noise at all in the playoffs, including a trip to the Super Bowl, Bosa needs to do more. That’s why he makes $34 million per year. San Francisco travels to Jacksonville to face the AFC South–leading Jaguars on Sunday and has a big road game against the Eagles on Dec. 3, which could determine whether they’ll be a No. 2 or No. 3 seed in the NFC.

Mitch Goldich: I almost wrote an entire paragraph about being surprised that league-wide scoring is down so low, and then this nagging voice in the back of my head cautioned me to see whether that was the exact topic I wrote about in our midseason roundtable last season and it was. I guess I shouldn’t be so surprised! Though it is a bit jarring that seemingly every week a game in my fantasy league is swung by a defense scoring 26 points.

I was also surprised that Joshua Dobbs was traded to the Vikings and then five days later led the team to a comeback win without knowing any of the plays. Before the season started, I did not expect that Joshua Dobbs would be traded to the Vikings and then five days later lead the team to a comeback win without knowing any of the plays.

If I must give a serious answer, I’d say I have been a little surprised that we have not seen the shameless tanking for the top quarterbacks start in earnest. Knowing how draftniks were talking about the 2024 QB class, I thought the intentional race to the bottom would have some active participants. But I think teams have really given it the old college try. The Cardinals are bad, but kept games stunningly close that first month. Other teams that found themselves with a sudden opportunity to truly bottom out kept fighting and won a few games (Broncos, Raiders, Bears) or opted not to go full-on sell mode with appealing veterans at the deadline (Titans, Buccaneers). The teams at the bottom now are generally there because they are bad, or hurt, not because they lack shame. That said, I would expect the tanking to begin right about now for some of the teams with more hopeless outlooks for the rest of the season.

Claire Kuwana: The Patriots were never going to be good this season. That much at least was obvious. But there was one thing New England fans had to be excited about going into this year: the reunion between Bill O’Brien and Mac Jones. (They overlapped briefly at Alabama, with the offensive coordinator joining in January 2021, a few months before Jones’s being drafted.)

Preseason expectations for the duo were reasonable, too—after watching Jones fall from a could-be franchise quarterback in 2021 to an oft-injured mess in ’22, nobody expected a flawless offense to suddenly come about. But after saying goodbye to Matt Patricia and welcoming a true offensive mind (not to mention one who speaks ”the same language” as Jones) into the ranks, the unit was at least supposed to see an inkling of rhyme or reason.

And yet through Week 9, there’s been no spark in Foxborough. The offense lacks any real playmakers, and Jones himself has somehow fallen short of expectations.

The Patriots are in the bottom 10 in the league for offensive success rate, according to NBC Sports Boston. The metric essentially measures a team’s efficiency, or how well the offense performs on each down relative to what is expected. New England’s struggle was obvious against the Commanders on Sunday: Washington, which ranks in the bottom three for passing yards allowed this season, and just traded away its two best pass rushers, held the Patriots to 3-of-12 on third downs. And, down three with 30 seconds left, Jones threw his ninth interception of the year. (He has 10 touchdown passes so far.) Again, nobody expected him to be perfect. But on a unit itching for any explosiveness whatsoever, we, along with maybe even O’Brien and definitely Bill Belichick, at least expected him to be better.

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Intriguing second-half story lines

The Jaguars are one of several teams looking to challenge the teams that have been atop the AFC for a while :: Melina Myers/USA TODAY Sports

Albert Breer: Are there some newcomers to the AFC penthouse? The Chiefs and Bengals look primed to stay there, having been there for an extended period of time. Buffalo’s injuries on defense have made it a struggle for the Bills to maintain their place up there. And then, to me, you’ve got the Ravens, Dolphins and Jaguars as teams worth keeping an eye on as teams that could crash the party come January. All three have young quarterbacks playing at a high level, and well-rounded rosters capable of winning in different ways. The Ravens probably have the league’s two most impressive wins of the season (over Detroit and Seattle). The Dolphins may have the highest ceiling on offense. The Jaguars have shown resilience and an ability to win anywhere (including twice overseas). We’ll see how much of all of that holds up when it really counts.

Conor Orr: The biggest story line, by far, over the next few weeks of the season is how the draft will line itself up. A handful of teams that we thought would be sinking toward the bottom have gotten hot, while a few other teams are starting to tie their concrete shoes on more permanently. As we’ve written in the past, there aren’t a ton of possible scenarios that lack fun and intrigue. If the Patriots, Giants, Cardinals, Bears (via Panthers) or Broncos clinch one of the top two picks, the fallout will be astronomical. Big-time quarterbacks will need to be dealt or cut. Rosters will change substantially. Perhaps the market could open on a trade up for Caleb Williams or Drake Maye, depending on who lands at No. 1. I thought this would be a much more significant story line going into the season, to be honest. I expected more blatant tanking, but to most teams’ credit, everyone is gunning for a playoff spot.

Gilberto Manzano: I can’t take the Dolphins seriously until they beat a legit Super Bowl contender. Maybe I should lower the bar to beating a team with a winning record because the Dolphins’ six wins this season have been against the Chargers, Patriots twice, Broncos, Giants and Panthers. Those are four of the worst teams in the league, and the Chargers (who got back to .500 on Monday). But expectations need to be high for the Dolphins because they have plenty of talent on both sides of the ball and have flashed as a special offensive unit when they’re not playing the best of the best.

Miami has lost against the Bills (when they were healthy defensively), Eagles and Chiefs in the first half of the season. It wasn’t close in the first two games, and the Dolphins failed to capitalize on the Chiefs’ offensive miscues in Germany. What’s concerning is how poorly the Dolphins’ offense has played in these big-time games. They were held to 20 points by the Bills, 17 vs. the Eagles and 14 against the Chiefs. They have gone backward and lost each game in a different manner. The Bills beat the Dolphins at their own game by welcoming a fast-paced shootout in Week 4. The Dolphins’ offense sat on the sideline for long stretches in Week 7 because of the Eagles’ lengthy drives. Last week, the Dolphins just couldn’t hang vs. the Chiefs’ stout defense, despite receiving many opportunities to tie or steal the game.

Luckily for the Dolphins, they can prove me and many others wrong by stacking a few quality wins at the end of the regular season. They have a three-game gantlet against the Cowboys, Ravens and Bills. If the Dolphins go at least 2–1 in those games, they might be legit Super Bowl contenders before the postseason.

Taylor Swift was one of the biggest stories of the NFL’s first half. The team’s offense is a key plot line as we approach the playoffs :: Jay Biggerstaff/USA TODAY Sports

Matt Verderame: The Chiefs are leading the AFC at 7–2, and have become a pop culture phenomenon, but all is not well in Kansas City. While the defense ranks in the top five in total yards, passing yards, yards per play, points allowed and sacks, the Chiefs’ offense has sputtered more often than not.

On Sunday against the Dolphins, the Chiefs had 46 yards of offense in the second half while being shut out. The only saving grace? The defense came up with stops time and again, halting two late drives that penetrated Kansas City territory to hold on.

For Andy Reid’s group, this is a bit of good news, bad news. The Chiefs have the league’s best quarterback in Patrick Mahomes. They might have the best tight end ever in Travis Kelce. The offensive line is also fantastic, especially on the interior with center Creed Humphrey and guard Joe Thuney. All told, the unit leads the league in sack percentage allowed.

However, the first nine games have seen Kansas City surpass 27 points only twice. It happened against the Bears and Chargers, two of the worst defenses in the sport. And even playing bad defenses doesn’t guarantee success. The Broncos rank toward the bottom in many categories and have the dubious distinction of having allowed 70 points to the Dolphins. Against the Chiefs, Denver gave up one touchdown across two games while forcing six turnovers.

Which brings us to the biggest question facing Mahomes and his charges. Can the Chiefs stop turning the ball over? Kansas City has 17 giveaways, including at least one in every game save for their Week 5 win over the Vikings.

Despite it all, the Chiefs are atop the AFC with games remaining against the Raiders (twice), Packers, Patriots and Chargers. They have everything in front of them. But if the offense can’t hang on to the ball and start executing, the future is fraught with peril.

John Pluym: Every year, it’s basically a forgone conclusion that the MVP should go to a quarterback. Yes, they play the most important position in team sports. But that shouldn’t automatically guarantee the award goes to either Patrick Mahomes, Tua Tagovailoa, Jalen Hurts or Joe Burrow. And that’s not to dismiss how well each of those quarterbacks are playing this season. But if there’s ever been a year to make a case for a wide receiver to win MVP, then this is it. The Eagles’ A.J. Brown has had an off-the-charts type of season with 67 catches for 1,005 yards and six touchdowns through nine games. He still has a realistic chance of getting to the 2,000-yard threshold. And Philly wouldn’t be 8–1 if not for Brown, who had six consecutive games of more than 125 yards receiving until Sunday’s game against the Cowboys. One other wide receiver to consider: Tyreek Hill. The Dolphins’ speedster should get a ton of credit for Tua’s development. Here’s what Hill said about his quarterback last week in relation to Mahomes: “At this rate, going up to this year, I would say Tua’s the better quarterback. But if we go over the course of careers, obviously Pat is different. This year, neck and neck.” Hill and Brown should be neck and neck for MVP. And Hill’s numbers are just as impressive as what Brown has done this season: 69 catches, 1,076 yards and eight touchdowns, including games of 215, 157, 181 and 163 yards. So let’s not dismiss two great receivers. And if both reach the 2,000-yard barrier, it could be an interesting MVP vote. The last time a nonquarterback won the award was 2012 when Adrian Peterson rushed for 2,097 yards. There’s something magical about 2,000 yards for running backs and receivers.

Mitch Goldich: My eyes will spend much of the next nine weeks focused squarely on Jalen Hurts’s knees. As I’ll elaborate on in my Super Bowl pick below, I think the concern about an injury to last year’s MVP runner-up is the biggest obstacle between this team and another trip to the Big Game. “Duh,” you are saying, as this is the case for just about every team, but it feels like Hurts’s health has been a much bigger concern during this season’s 8–1 start than last season’s 13–1 start (after which he sprained his shoulder).

There have been a few too many games where Eagles fans have had to wonder whether Hurts looked quite right on a scramble, or read tweets about how he was the last player out of the locker room after halftime or look at zoomed-in photos of his knee brace. I am not a doctor, but when a guy spends the whole season banged up with small injuries it puts me on high alert for the bigger one that may be coming.

Hurts is a true dual threat between his ability to get A.J. Brown 125 yards every week and his unstoppability on the Brotherly Shove that all of his rivals’ fans want banned. (Among other things!) And Philly needs him on the field as the engine of a team that is 24–3 in games he has started under Nick Sirianni.

The Eagles have gotten more crucial late-season wins plus actual playoff wins out of their backup quarterbacks in the past 25 years than some teams have gotten from their starters. But with Marcus Mariota and Tanner McKee on the depth chart, I don’t think this is a year the quarterback factory wants to press its luck.

Claire Kuwana: If the season ended today, the Bills would miss the postseason for the first time since 2018. The defending AFC East champions are spiraling further away from a repeat division title as the year goes on. Buffalo has lost three of its last five games, and with the Eagles, Chiefs, Dolphins and Cowboys still left on the schedule, Sean McDermott’s squad has a long road ahead. Last year, the Bills finished the regular season on a seven-game winning streak after losing back-to-back games in Weeks 9 and 10. Can this year’s team channel the same energy at the midway point of the season? Looking at the two years side by side, most would probably say no.

Nonetheless, I’m intrigued to watch the Bills try to fight their way back into the playoffs. Before the start of the season, they were a consensus top-five pick to win the Super Bowl. And though Buffalo is a franchise all too familiar with coming short of postseason expectations, both in recent years and dating a few decades back (the early 1990s, anyone?), we all know what Josh Allen is capable of. All in all, the quarterback has showed up as his solid self this season. He continues to complete passes at a high rate—save for a few avoidable mistakes like his Week 7 interception vs. the Patriots—and find a cadence with Stefon Diggs. But if the Bills are serious about gearing up for the postseason, they need more than that. Sunday’s loss to the Bengals only proved how one-dimensional the Buffalo offense can be. And with injuries all over the defensive side, the team can’t count on being bailed out by the other half of the roster, either. The Bills need a spark, and they need it soon.

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Super Bowl LVIII predictions

Will one (or two) of these stars play in the Super Bowl again this season? :: Sam Greene/The Enquirer/USA TODAY Network (Burrow); Bill Streicher/USA TODAY Sports (Brown); Nathan Ray Seebeck/USA TODAY Sports (Kelce)

Albert Breer:

Preseason pick: Bengals 24, 49ers 17; Joe Burrow MVP

Midseason pick: Bengals 24, 49ers 17; Joe Burrow MVP

A funny thing happened on the way to the funeral people were planning for Cincinnati’s season a month ago. Turns out, the problem really was the quarterback’s calf, and the team knew what it was doing in handling it. And, as a result, all the dirt shoveled on top of that team has been brushed aside. You could even say the Bengals are better off for having gone through it (though they’d never choose to deal with that again), because it forced Cincinnati to win in different ways. Against Seattle two weeks ago, the defense stepped up and won a game against a playoff team with its offense scuffling to get its footing a bit. On Sunday night, the Bengals saddled up behind their run game in the waning moments and closed the Bills out with Joe Mixon. And against the Niners, we really saw the punch that Cincinnati can pack when it’s firing on all cylinders. I see those two teams meeting again, for what it’s worth, in Vegas—and this time, the result of Super Bowl XXIII will reverse itself, with Burrow finding his own No. 2 receiver, his John Taylor, in Tee Higgins for the touchdown on a game-winning drive.

Conor Orr:

Preseason pick: Bengals 31, 49ers 27; Joe Burrow MVP

Midseason pick: Bengals 31, 49ers 27; Joe Burrow MVP

I am too stubborn to back off at this point, even though it does upset me just slightly that I had the Ravens in the Super Bowl a year ago and now potentially have to miss out on the chance of latching my name onto their successes. Anyway, I think the Bengals are awakening from a post–Joe Burrow injury slump with a defense and running game that fortified itself during Burrow’s healing process. I think San Francisco will soon awaken from its three-game losing skid, in which we’ve seen some substandard play due largely to some untimely injuries. The 49ers are now deeper as a pass-rush unit than they’ve been since the 2019 Super Bowl bid against the Chiefs. It takes a lot of poise to double down on an inherently boring Super Bowl pick, so instead of jeers I would like credit for my stoicism. Burrow, after signing his new contract, recovers miraculously from a calf injury that, at one time, involved actual in-game Theragun-ing. He runs for two touchdowns during the Super Bowl. Ah, the marvels of modern medicine and field turf science.

Gilberto Manzano:

Preseason pick: Bengals 31, 49ers 27; Joe Burrow MVP

Midseason pick: Bengals 31, 49ers 27; Joe Burrow MVP

Funny how I started the season worrying about the Bengals and feeling good about the 49ers. Now that has flipped, with the Bengals on a four-game winning streak and the 49ers owning a surprising three-game losing streak. But I’m sticking with the 49ers because Brock Purdy should be fine when Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams return to the field. Yes, maybe Purdy isn’t as good as I thought, but the 49ers don’t care about QB rankings. (They should, however, read Matt Verderame’s weekly QB rankings.) If Purdy does a better job of protecting the football, the 49ers should return to being one of the best offenses in the league.

I’m more concerned about the 49ers on the other side of the ball, because the defensive front has failed to apply consistent pressure on opposing quarterbacks, which in turn has exposed the unit’s subpar secondary. Perhaps the addition of Chase Young will spark this defense in the second half. It really needs Nick Bosa to return to his dominant 2022 form. And San Francisco needs its entire defense to play better to have a chance against Philadelphia in a potential playoff rematch.

Joe Burrow carved up the 49ers in Week 8, and did the same to the Bills last week on Sunday Night Football. Burrow’s calf injury is no longer an issue, but the Bengals might have concerns about Ja’Marr Chase’s back injury. If Chase is forced to miss time, the Bengals should be fine because Burrow knows how to get many pass-catchers involved in the offense, including his tight end trio of Tanner Hudson, Irv Smith Jr. and Drew Sample. The Bengals also have the luxury of having one of the best defenses in the league. I’m sticking with my Super Bowl pick with confidence.

Matt Verderame:

Preseason pick: Chiefs 31, Cowboys 27; Patrick Mahomes MVP

Midseason pick: Chiefs 24, Eagles 21; Chris Jones MVP

I’m changing my NFC pick, because the Cowboys remain the Cowboys. I deserve to be ashamed. I knew this was going to happen, I tried to be smart and here we are. The lesson, kids? Don’t try to be smart.

Anyway, the Eagles are the best team in the NFC, if not the NFL. Philadelphia is absurdly deep up front defensively with the additions of rookies in Jalen Carter and Nolan Smith, and the pass defense has been bolstered by the acquisition of safety Kevin Byard.

Offensively, Jalen Hurts is a top-10 quarterback (if not higher) despite some early-season issues with interceptions. Surrounded by star receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, along with tight end Dallas Goedert, the Eagles have more than enough to make another deep run, perhaps culminating in the franchise’s second Lombardi Trophy.

So why not just pick the Eagles? Because I already rolled with the Chiefs, and despite Kansas City’s clear offensive problems, this is a team that has two titles in the past four years.

Furthermore, the Chiefs are phenomenally talented on defense, led by All-Pro Chris Jones and a burgeoning superstar in corner Trent McDuffie. Removing nonoffensive points, the Chiefs have allowed more than 20 points only once, and it came against the Broncos, who scored three touchdowns on short fields.

Essentially, the bet here is that Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid, Travis Kelce and the rest of the Chiefs’ offense will figure things out over the final two months. If they do, the unit will be paired with a top-tier defense capable of beating an elite team almost by itself.

Give me the Chiefs and Eagles again. This time in Sin City.

John Pluym:

Preseason pick: Chiefs 35, 49ers 31; Patrick Mahomes MVP

Midseason pick: Chiefs 28, 49ers 24; Patrick Mahomes MVP

I’m sticking with my preseason picks. I still have a ton of confidence in Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes, Chris Jones & Co. The Chiefs’ defense is legit, and Jones has been a monster this season since returning from his training camp holdout and missing the first game of the season. Yes, Kansas City has issues on offense with its receivers. But as long as Mahomes and Travis Kelce are together, it’s hard to bet against the Chiefs. And rookie Rashee Rice has been coming on, so I still think K.C. can find a way in a rugged AFC and win its third Lombardi Trophy under Reid. As far as the 49ers, it’s up to Kyle Shanahan to figure out a way to get the most out of Brock Purdy, Nick Bosa, Christian McCaffrey and the rest of a loaded roster. San Francisco is the most talented team in the league on defense after the recent addition of Chase Young at the trade deadline, and he should help cover up some shortcomings on defense over the past few games for the 49ers. If the 49ers are healthy, it should be a heckuva NFC championship in Philly. This time, I’m going to put my money on San Francisco because the Eagles have lived on the edge during the first half and sooner or later, it’s going to catch up to them.

Mitch Goldich:

Preseason pick: Eagles 33, Jaguars 27; Jalen Hurts MVP

Midseason pick: Eagles 28, Jaguars 22; Jalen Hurts MVP

Changing predictions midseason is an ethical dilemma that keeps me up at night, and I try to avoid it unless something major has changed. In this case, not much has. I had the Eagles as the NFC’s top seed and the Jaguars reaching the Super Bowl as the AFC’s No. 3 seed, and both teams are sitting exactly where I thought they’d be. If anything, Jacksonville’s impressive four-week run in which the team won back-to-back games in London and then came back across the pond (without a bye week) to win a home game and then a short-week road game has only strengthened my belief that this team can be prepared to win multiple road playoff games.

I already wrote above about my concerns that a Jalen Hurts injury will derail my dream of a Doug Pederson Bowl, but he is on his feet right now as the Eagles head into their bye week, so I am sticking to what I said in September. The Bengals look great. The Chiefs are always there. The Ravens (whom I picked to win the Super Bowl last year, perhaps a year early) look outstanding. But the Jaguars’ Super Bowl odds are much shorter than the last time I picked them, so I’d be foolish to bail on them now.

I am lowering my score, though. See! I’m not too stubborn.

Claire Kuwana:

Preseason pick: Eagles 38, Bengals 24; Jalen Hurts MVP

Midseason pick: Eagles 38, Bengals 24; Jalen Hurts MVP

Luckily I did myself a favor in the preseason, and after Week 9 I can officially stand with my original Super Bowl pick. I must admit it looked quite dark there for a bit in the first few weeks, but since then the Bengals have rebounded well enough to make me feel confident again.

The Chiefs will certainly make a strong run for the AFC title, but as Albert Breer wrote Monday, the key difference-maker for Cincinnati will be how the team extends beyond its star quarterback. The Bengals know how to play with a limited Joe Burrow, if needed. Kansas City, on the other hand, has run into problems when it comes to finding options beyond the Patrick Mahomes–Travis Kelce combination. That versatility will matter in the postseason, especially given how effectively Lou Anarumo’s defense was able to shut down a Bills team that struggles with the same sort of depth (or lack thereof).

On the other side, the Eagles are still looking like a solid pick to win it all. Somehow week after week, Philadelphia has found a way to win close games. Jalen Hurts is a clutch playmaker when trailing—maybe even more so than in standard gameplay—and has plenty of pieces to lean on in the offense, with the likes of A.J. Brown and D’Andre Swift surging this season. But what keeps the Eagles anchored is their front seven’s strength and O-line’s experience. That (and maybe a few successful Brotherly Shoves) will make all the difference come February.

Maybe Brown makes a case for Super Bowl MVP, should his season continue on this trajectory, but to be safe I’ll stick with Hurts there. When it comes to showing up in big games, the quarterback did plenty to earn our faith last season.