Bears’ No. 1 Pick Odds Will Actually Improve If They Beat Panthers on ‘TNF’

Chicago traded away its No. 1 pick in the 2023 draft to Carolina.

The Bears host the Panthers on Thursday Night Football this week, and the game holds massive implications for the upcoming No. 1 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.

Last year, the Carolina traded a king's ransom to Chicago in exchange for the No. 1 overall pick, which the Panthers used to draft Bryce Young, who they hope will be their franchise quarterback for years to come.

In return, the Bears received wide receiver DJ Moore, as well as the Panthers' first-round picks in 2023 and 2024. With the Panthers still struggling this year, next year's first-round pick is currently looking extremely valuable to Chicago.

The Bears will actually have a better chance of earning the 2024 No. 1 pick if they beat the Panthers on Thursday, which would normally seem backwards. With a loss, Carolina would move to 1–8, putting the Bears in a more likely spot to receive the top pick. Essentially, Bears fans are rooting for the Panthers to hold the lowest NFL record this season.

Specifically, the Bears will have a 43% chance to have the No. 1 pick next year if they win, ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported. This would be the highest chance in the league. 

But, if the Bears lose to the Panthers, Chicago’s chances would decrease to 28%. This would put them, or rather the Panthers, behind the Cardinals (1–8) and Giants (2–7) for the No. 1 pick.

Tonight could be, as @LauraRutledge would say, a win-win for the Bears. Since the Bears own the Panthers’ first-round pick courtesy of the trade for the 2023 No. 1 overall pick, Chicago would help its chances of getting the 2024 No. 1 overall pick with a win tonight vs. Carolina.… pic.twitter.com/AqSQuOfY2S

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) November 9, 2023

The Bears also received a 2025 second-round pick in the March trade.