NFL Week 10 Preview: Best Games, Best Bets, Predictions

Our experts have ATS and over/under picks for the five biggest games of the week, including an AFC North showdown in Baltimore and the surprising Texans taking on the red-hot Bengals.

SI Editorial | Nov 9, 2023

NFL Week 10 Preview: Best Games, Best Bets, Predictions /

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Week 10 of the NFL schedule isn’t as loaded as last week’s slate, but there are a few intriguing interconference matchups.

Good luck trying to pick a winner for 49ers at Jaguars. Both Super Bowl contenders are coming off bye weeks, but the 49ers had more corrections to make because of their surprising three-game losing streak. One major correction was adding edge rusher Chase Young ahead of last week’s NFL trade deadline.

As for the Jaguars, they surged into their bye week with five consecutive wins. You’d think the Jaguars would be the favorites as the home team, but not many are expecting the 49ers to drop four consecutive games.

Week 10 will also offer Lions at Chargers, a matchup between two head coaches who like to go for it on fourth down. Perhaps this is the one game Brandon Staley and Dan Campbell decide to go conservative.

We also can’t forget the intriguing matchup between C.J. Stroud’s Texans and Joe Burrow’s Bengals.

So how do we think those games and a few others will go? We break it all down below.

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1. Cleveland Browns vs. Baltimore Ravens

Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson — Lamar Jackson has looked sharp leading the Ravens’ offense :: Tommy Gilligan/USA TODAY Sports

Baltimore has been the league’s most dominant team through the first half of the season — Cleveland has been one of its most confusing. Lamar Jackson is playing at an MVP level and the Ravens have the best point differential in the NFL (+115) and stand atop the AFC North. As for Deshaun Watson, well, he’s playing.

The Browns’ franchise quarterback returned to the lineup Sunday after playing 12 snaps in the entirety of October. Cleveland went 2–2 without him (including a 28–3 home loss to Baltimore) behind the play of its elite defense and strong rushing attack. Watson threw two touchdowns in his return to action, a 27–0 win over an Arizona team that gained 58 total yards. The Ravens figure to put up more of a fight than the Cardinals did.

Defensively, Baltimore is the only team on Cleveland’s level at the moment. Mike McDonald’s unit allows a league-low 13.8 points per game and it held Seattle and Detroit — two projected playoff teams — to nine total points during this four-game winning streak. The Ravens are one of two teams that average more rushing yards per game (160.3) than the Browns and they finished with a season-high 298 on the ground Sunday against the Seahawks.

In a battle between two great defenses, this game could come down to these offenses’ ability to overcome a tough matchup. Baltimore, which is 3–1 at home, has exhibited its ability to do just that more so than Cleveland, which is 1–2 on the road and hasn’t won at M&T Bank Stadium since 2019.

Verderame’s pick: Ravens -6.5, Under 37.5 (Baltimore 24, Cleveland 13)
Manzano’s pick: Ravens -6.5, Over 37.5 (Baltimore 27, Cleveland 17)
Wood’s pick: Ravens -6.5, Over 37.5 (Baltimore 27, Cleveland 16)

2. San Francisco 49ers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Christian McCaffrey scored four touchdowns in a win against the Cardinals. — Christian McCaffrey vs. a stingy Jaguars run defense will be a key to this matchup :: Cary Edmondson/USA TODAY Sports

San Francisco just had its bye week to get healthy and back on track amidst a three-game skid, its longest since 2021. Jacksonville, winner of a league-high five straight, was also on bye in Week 9 ahead of its toughest interconference challenge of the year.

The 49ers had won 15 consecutive regular-season games and Brock Purdy had never lost a start before the Browns beat them in Week 6 — then they lost to the Vikings and fell again the following week to the Bengals. San Francisco only put up 17 points in each outing, ending an eight-game streak of scoring 30-plus points, and its defense surrendered more points each week, including a season-high 31 to Cincinnati. The pending return of Deebo Samuel (shoulder) should help this struggling unit, but the offense has struggled without left tackle Trent Williams (ankle), who is still not practicing.

Only one of the Jaguars’ victories during their current streak was a true home game. They sandwiched a win over the Colts at EverBank Stadium between two triumphs in London and back-to-back on the road. Trevor Lawrence, Travis Etienne Jr. and Christian Kirk have given Jacksonville solid production on offense, but the defense has been the difference. The Jaguars are tied with an NFL-high 18 turnovers and they’ve been one of the best units against the run, which will certainly come into play against Christian McCaffrey.

The Jaguars are 2–1 outright as an underdog this season but their one loss was a true home game against the Chiefs. They’ve also lost their last four to the 49ers dating back to 2009. As for San Francisco, this is its tightest spread of the season since Week 1 in Pittsburgh when it won big as a one-point favorite.

Verderame’s pick: 49ers -3.5, Over 45.5 (San Francisco 28, Jacksonville 23)
Manzano’s pick: Jaguars +3.5, Under 45.5 (Jacksonville 23, San Francisco 20)
Wood’s pick: 49ers -3.5, Under 45.5 (San Francisco 24, Jacksonville 20)

3. Houston Texans vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow evades pressure in the pocket — Joe Burrow has rebounded from a slow start to help the Bengals win four straight :: Sam Greene/USA TODAY Network

C.J. Stroud announced his arrival last week with a record-breaking performance to get Houston back to .500 while Joe Burrow stayed hot in Cincinnati’s fourth straight win. The 2023 No. 2 pick is up against a tough test on the road this week in a head-to-head meeting with the 2020 No. 1 pick.

The Texans mounted a fourth-quarter comeback last week to beat the Buccaneers 39–37 behind a 470-yard, five-touchdown outing from Stroud. It was a major bounce-back from the previous week when Houston lost to Carolina, 15–13, to give the Panthers their first win. The Tampa Bay game was only the second time since Week 2 that the Texans’ defense surrendered more than 20 points. Their secondary will be tested by Burrow, who could be without Ja’Marr Chase (back).

Tee Higgins stepped up after Chase went down last week to finish with a season-high 110 yards in a 24–18 win over the Bills. Burrow also racked up a season-best 348 yards and recorded his second straight multi-touchdown game without an interception. The Bengals have only allowed 17 points per game during their winning streak against some solid offenses, but they’re susceptible to being exploited on the ground.

One thing to watch for in this game is the play of Houston’s new kicker Matt Amendola, who was signed this week with Ka’imi Fairbairn (quad) expected to miss time. The Texans are in a familiar position as an underdog of seven-plus points, but this is the most points Cincinnati has been favored by this season.

Verderame’s pick: Texans +6.5, Over 47.5 (Cincinnati 27, Houston 24)
Manzano’s pick: Texans +6.5, Over 47.5 (Cincinnati 30, Houston 24)
Wood’s pick: Bengals -6.5, Over 47.5 (Cincinnati 31, Houston 24)

4. New Orleans Saints vs. Minnesota Vikings

Taysom Hill runs with the football during a game. — Taysom Hill has played a more consistent role in the Saints’ attack :: Chuck Cook/USA TODAY Sports

Minnesota will trot out its third different starting quarterback in as many weeks Sunday against New Orleans as it looks to build on its improbable four-game win streak. Joshua Dobbs replaced rookie Jaren Hall (concussion) last week, who was only in after Kirk Cousins (ACL) was sidelined for the season. Just days after being acquired from Arizona, Dobbs led the Vikings to a comeback win against Atlanta and vaulted them into the NFC playoff picture.

The Saints defense dominated the Bears last week, forcing five turnovers in a 24–17 triumph. It was another largely uninspiring offensive outing, aside from another do-it-all day from Taysom Hill, who caught and threw a touchdown. Derek Carr was not sacked Sunday for the first time this year but this week he’ll have to worry about Danielle Hunter, who has an NFL-best 10 sacks through nine games.

A week getting to know Minnesota’s system should do Dobbs well after he was thrown into the fire against the Falcons. He led the team in rushing with a season-high 66 yards and accounted for three scores with hardly any preparation. The Vikings also have stepped up their play on defense over the last month and are allowing just 17 points per game over their last four, which could help take pressure off Dobbs in his first start in a new uniform.

New Orleans has been solid on the road this season with a 3–2 mark away from the Superdome while Minnesota is just 1–3 in Minneapolis, though their lone home win was a few weeks ago at the expense of the 49ers. The Vikings have excelled as an underdog with a 2–1–1 mark against the spread with two outright wins.

Verderame’s pick: Saints -2.5, Under 40.5 (New Orleans 25, Minnesota 15)
Manzano’s pick: Saints -2.5, Under 40.5 (New Orleans 20, Minnesota 16)
Wood’s pick: Vikings +2.5, Over 40.5 (Minnesota 23, New Orleans 20)

5. Detroit Lions vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Detroit Lions running back David Montgomery — The Lions are excited to get running back David Montgomery back on the field after missing a few weeks with a rib innjury :: Junfu Han/USA TODAY Sports

Detroit got back on track two weeks ago with a win over Las Vegas after its four-game winning streak ended with a blowout loss to Baltimore. Los Angeles is also gaining momentum after it got back to .500 with a resounding win Monday night against the Jets. Now, two of the league’s best offenses converge on SoFi Stadium for a game that has the highest over/under of the week.

The Lions hope to get David Montgomery (rib) back after he missed the team’s last two games and had the Week 9 bye to get healthy. Rookie Jahmyr Gibbs filled in admirably in Montgomery’s absence, racking up over 300 total yards and two touchdowns in two weeks as the starter. Jared Goff and Amon-Ra St. Brown have hooked up for over 100 yards through the air in each of the last three games. Though Goff’s numbers tend to take a hit on the road, L.A.’s defense allows the most passing yards per game in the NFL (286).

The Chargers rolled New York on Monday in spite of a 136-yard, zero-touchdown performance by Justin Herbert. Instead, it was the defense that stepped up, forcing three turnovers and racking up eight sacks. The much-maligned Los Angeles defense has allowed just 19 points its last two times out, albeit against suspect competition. Detroit will be a good test to see just how far this unit has come.

The Lions’ only loss on the road this season was against the Ravens and they’re tied for the best record against the spread in the NFL at 6–2. The Chargers have been up and down at home with losses to teams with winning records (Miami and Dallas) and wins over sub-.500 teams (Las Vegas and Chicago).

Verderame’s pick: Lions -2.5, Over 48.5 (Detroit 31, Los Angeles 24)
Manzano’s pick: Lions -2.5, Over 48.5 (Detroit 30, Los Angeles 27)
Wood’s pick: Lions -2.5, Over 48.5 (Detroit 27, Los Angeles 23)

Final Thoughts

Verderame: Don’t sleep on the Texans. They’re 4–4 and starting to really challenge on a weekly basis, largely because C.J. Stroud is going from great rookie to great in general. While the Bengals are home, humming and the better team, Houston isn’t going to get blown out. This should be a good game to the end, where Cincinnati shows why it’s a Super Bowl contender.

Manzano: It was very difficult to predict the 49ers will lose four consecutive games, but I’m done doubting the Jaguars. They’re coming off a bye, just like the 49ers, and they’re the home team. Jacksonville is playing well on both sides of the football, unlike San Francisco. I used to also doubt the Ravens, but I stopped after they crushed the Lions, and then they reassured me by cruising vs. the Seahawks. The Browns don’t have enough firepower offensively to keep pace with Lamar Jackson & Co.

Wood: I like the Ravens and Bengals to continue their winning ways against the Browns and Texans, respectively, and the 49ers to get back in the win column against the Jaguars. Baltimore just might be the best team in the NFL and they have another prime opportunity to prove it against an elite defense. And with a week to get situated in the Vikings’ system, I think Josh Dobbs can make enough plays to upset the Saints. The Minnesota magic will continue for at least another week.

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Published Nov 9, 2023

SI EDITORIAL