Fact or Fiction: Lions Are Threat for No. 1 Seed in NFC After Week 11 Rally vs. Bears

After coming from behind against Chicago on Sunday, Detroit has a convincing path to become the conference frontrunner ahead of this postseason.

The Lions did more than just avoid one of the biggest upsets of Week 11 in rallying against the Bears on Sunday.

After erasing a double-digit fourth-quarter deficit to beat Chicago, 31–26, Detroit now has the inside track for the top seed in the NFC. But Dan Campbell’s squad still has plenty of competition for the coveted No. 1 spot, with the Cowboys, Eagles and 49ers in the mix.

David Montgomery scored the game-winning touchdown against his former team :: David Reginek/USA TODAY Sports

And how about the race for MVP? C.J. Stroud and his Texans won again, but the rookie sensation might have competition from the other quarterback in Texas. Dak Prescott had another standout performance as the Cowboys cruised against the Panthers on Sunday.

Let’s analyze the battle for MVP, the top seed in the NFC and other storylines for this week’s “Fact or Fiction.”

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Lions will earn No. 1 seed in NFC

Manzano’s view: Fact

The Lions (8–2) are a real threat to clinch the No. 1 seed in the NFC after scoring 17 unanswered, fourth-quarter points to survive a scare from the Bears at home. Detroit looks like it’s in the driver’s seat to have home-field advantage throughout the NFC postseason thanks to its soft schedule, with upcoming games vs. the Packers, Saints, Bears again and Broncos. The Lions may be behind the Eagles (8–1) in the standings, but Philadelphia has to face the Chiefs on the road Monday night, plus has upcoming games against the Bills, 49ers, Cowboys and Seahawks. Detroit will have to compete with Dallas and San Francisco for postseason seedings as well, both of which have tough schedules remaining. If the Lions handle business against the teams they’re supposed to beat, perhaps they can afford to lose a game against the Vikings (twice) and Cowboys to close out the regular season.

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Dak Prescott will emerge as the MVP favorite by Christmas

Prescott has played consistently this season after raising questions in 2022 :: Jim Dedmon/USA TODAY Sports

Manzano’s view: Fiction

Prescott didn’t light up the stat sheet the way he has the past month, but he had a clean, efficient performance Sunday to guide the Cowboys to a 33–10 win over the Panthers. Prescott, who threw for 189 yards and two touchdowns against Carolina, certainly deserves to be in the mix for MVP, but he has plenty of competition with Stroud, Jalen Hurts and Tua Tagovailoa, just to name a few candidates. Prescott can improve his campaign by helping the Cowboys (7–3) overtake the Eagles in the NFC East when the two teams meet again next month. Or, the Dallas quarterback can showcase himself in upcoming marquee matchups against the Seahawks, Bills, Dolphins and Lions.

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C.J. Stroud and the Texans will make the postseason

Manzano’s view: Fact

The storyline of the Texans (6–4) being in contention for the postseason has been somewhat overlooked because of Stroud’s sensational rookie season as an MVP candidate. The quarterback deserves plenty of credit for having Houston in contention for the AFC South title and a wild-card spot. But the Texans being over .500 after defeating the Cardinals, 21–16, on Sunday is also a testament to the job DeMeco Ryans has done in his first season as a head coach. (Houston only won three games last season and hadn’t recorded more than four wins in a season since 2019.) This week, the Texans’ defense also stepped up during what was a rare off day for Stroud, who threw three interceptions. If they can beat the Jaguars next week at home, the Texans could overtake their AFC South rivales for first in the division. And, if they win the division, the MVP and Coach of the Year might reside in Houston this year.

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Ravens are the best team in the AFC

Baltimore is adapting to a new offensive coordinator this season in Todd Monken :: Sam Greene/The Enquirer/USA TODAY Network

Manzano’s view: Fiction

The Ravens (8–3) appear to be one of the two best teams in the AFC, but they’re not the best in the conference. The Chiefs (7–2) remain the top team in the AFC, because they have proven they can win Super Bowls. We’ve seen this Ravens movie before, with a Lamar Jackson–led offense cruising through the regular season only to miss out on postseason success. There are too many unknowns with the Ravens. Can the 2019 MVP and his pass-catchers play from behind if they don’t jump to an early lead in the postseason? Can Baltimore’s pass rush create pressure playing from behind? The defense has been as good as the Chiefs’ defense, but the Ravens don’t have as much talent or youth as Kansas City’s unit. And yes, the Chiefs have struggled offensively this season, but they earn the benefit of the doubt because of what Patrick Mahomes has done the past few seasons. Perhaps Jackson can turn the doubters into believers by guiding the Ravens to the No. 1 seed in the AFC.

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Bengals will miss postseason with Burrow sidelined

Manzano’s view: Fact

Perhaps backup quarterback Jake Browning can fill in admirably for the injured Joe Burrow, but it might not matter anyway: The Bengals (5–5) already have five losses this season, and they have upcoming games against the Steelers, Colts and Jaguars. Then Cincinnati will close out the regular season vs. the Vikings, Steelers, Chiefs and Browns. In a very crowded AFC, the Bengals might need to win at least 10 games to have a chance at a postseason spot. And judging from that tough schedule, it’s not looking likely for the Bengals to beat out wild-card hopefuls such as the Browns, Texans and Steelers. Browning had a decent outing in Thursday’s loss against the Ravens—the backup finished 8-of-14 for 68 yards and one touchdown—but the way Ja’Marr Chase threw the football in disgust after his garbage-time touchdown pass from Browning proved just how daunting it’s going to be for the Bengals to be competitive without Burrow for the rest of the season.