Fact or Fiction: Jaguars Will Win the AFC South After Squeezing Past C.J. Stroud’s Texans

With a win over Houston in Week 12, Jacksonville has established itself as the best team in the division behind the duo of Trevor Lawrence and Calvin Ridley.

Trevor Lawrence and C.J. Stroud will have many entertaining battles for years to come, but for now, the AFC South still runs through Jacksonville.

The Jaguars separated themselves in the division after leaving Houston with a thrilling 24–21 victory Sunday. Lawrence outlasted the Texans’ rookie sensation, reminding football pundits why the 2021 first pick is one of the best quarterbacks in the league.

Lawrence threw for 364 yards and a touchdown on Sunday :: Troy Taormina/USA TODAY Sports

Jacksonville is certainly on track for the postseason, but the same can’t be said about the Seahawks after Thanksgiving Day. Seattle was crushed by the 49ers on Thursday and now have to play the Cowboys, Eagles and 49ers again.

Will the Seahawks miss the postseason, and will the Jaguars win the AFC South? Those are two of five storylines we put under the microscope to decide whether they’re fact or fiction this week. 

Jaguars will win the AFC South

Manzano’s view: Fact

It helps that the Jaguars beat the Texans on the road Sunday, but it’s somewhat concerning that Jacksonville nearly blew a double-digit lead in the fourth quarter, holding on only because of Houston kicker Matt Ammendola’s missed field goal. Nonetheless, I can confidently say the Jaguars are the best team in the AFC South because of what Lawrence and Calvin Ridley have done the past two weeks. The receiver was Lawrence’s go-to target after the Jaguars fell behind 14–13 in the third quarter. Ridley scored the go-ahead touchdown in the third quarter and later moved the chains after catching a bullet from Lawrence on an 18-yard completion. If Lawrence and Ridley continue to play at a high level, the Jaguars might be as good as the Chiefs, Ravens and Dolphins in the wide open AFC. It also helps that Jacksonville has an underrated defense, one that didn’t allow Stroud to light up the scoreboard. But, because of its easier schedule, Houston will likely push Jacksonville until the end.

Seahawks will miss postseason

Manzano’s view: Fiction

Even with one of the best rosters in the league, there’s a strong chance the Seahawks (6–5) miss the postseason because of their difficult schedule. But I’m willing to bet that Seattle's talented roster will find a way to win at least one of their next three games: road matchups against the Cowboys and 49ers, and a home date vs. the Eagles. If Seattle wins even one of those three games, it should be fine, especially given its final three regular-season games are against the Titans, Steelers and Cardinals. On the other hand, if the Seahawks go winless during their grueling four-game ganlet—they were embarrassed by the 49ers at home on Thanksgiving—then why bother making the playoffs? Perhaps pesky wild-card hopefuls, such as the Packers and Rams, are more deserving of a No. 7 seed and might put up a better fight against one of the NFC’s top teams. But again, I’m not ready to count out the Seahawks, despite how disappointing Geno Smith and the offense have been this season.

Cowboys’ DaRon Bland deserves more DPOY chatter

Bland contributed to the Cowboys’ dominant win against Washington on Thanksgiving :: Tim Heitman/USA TODAY Sports

Manzano’s view: Fact

By now, we have all seen the graphic of the stud Cowboys cornerback having more touchdowns than Justin Jefferson, Davante Adams and the Chiefs’ entire wide receivers group combined. But Bland making history on Thanksgiving with his fifth pick-six of the season deserves more than just social media graphics. It’s time to strongly consider Bland as a candidate for Defensive Player of the Year. Not only does he have a league-leading seven interceptions, but Bland has been one of the best outside cornerbacks since filling in for Trevon Diggs, who tore his ACL in September. Bland, a 2022 fifth-round pick, started the season playing safety and stepped up at cornerback after a rash of injuries hit Dallas’s defense (which remains one of the best units in the NFL). Bland has a league-high coverage grade of 91.2, according to Pro Football Focus. He has stiff competition from teammate Micah Parsons, Cleveland’s Myles Garrett, Pittsburgh’s T.J. Watt and Las Vegas’s Maxx Crosby, but Bland is certainly in the conversation.

Lions are fourth best team in NFC

Manzano’s view: Fact

The Lions’ defense has struggled since being exposed by the Ravens in Week 7 with a 38–6 loss. They allowed 38 points to the Chargers, 26 to the Bears and 29 to the Packers in a surprising loss on Thanksgiving. After dropping to third in the NFC standings, it appears the Lions are the fourth best team in the conference—they just don’t have the type of defense that the Eagles, 49ers and Cowboys possess. Detroit can help its cause by clinching the No. 1 seed, but it can no longer be trusted against beatable teams after losing to the Packers and needing a 12-point rally to beat the Bears. The Lions, however, still have winnable upcoming games with the Saints, Bears and Broncos. Dan Campbell & Co. have time to turn it around defensively, but if they don’t, their ceiling might be the divisional round of the NFC postseason.

Aaron Rodgers should keep pushing to play this season

Rodgers has made quick progression in his recovery from an Achilles tear.  :: Chris Pedota/NorthJersey.com/USA TODAY Network

Manzano’s view: Fiction

A few weeks ago, I wrote that it would be a good idea to have Rodgers play in at least one game this season, even if the Jets are not in the postseason picture. If Rodgers can get a feel for his new teammates, it could provide momentum for next season—and assure the franchise that it made the right move in adding Rodgers and catering to all his needs. But that’s not the case. Backup quarterbacks Zach Wilson and Tim Boyle, wide receivers Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb, and offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett have all struggled this season, and all of them are closely connected with Rodgers. The Jets need to go into the offseason with the idea of diversifying their roster in case Rodgers gets hurt again, rather than putting all their eggs in one basket for the second year in a row. New York will have a tough job pleasing the quarterback in 2024, but it can at least point to how poorly this season went—even with Rodgers’s players and coaches—in case the offseason brings disagreement.