NFL Week 13 Preview: Best Games, Best Bets, Predictions

Our experts have ATS and over/under picks for the five biggest games of the week, including a potential NFC title game preview between the 49ers and Eagles.

SI Editorial | Nov 30, 2023

NFL Week 13 Preview: Best Games, Best Bets, Predictions /

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This is a great week of football. Hopefully that means a great week of making some money as well.

The best game of the season may well be upon us, along with being an NFC title game preview. The 49ers lost to the Eagles last year in the conference championship game and spent the last 10 months lamenting the absence of Brock Purdy in that game. Now, they get their chance to prove they’re the better team with Purdy and the rest of the roster in good health.

Elsewhere, the Chiefs and Packers tangle at Lambeau Field on Sunday night. Green Bay has won two straight to improve to 5–6, and has a real chance at sneaking into the NFC playoff picture as a wild card. Meanwhile, Kansas City knows that with a victory (and the Ravens being idle on their bye week), a victory puts the Chiefs back into the AFC’s top seed.

Let’s break down those games and three others from the NFL’s Week 13 schedule.

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1. San Francisco 49ers vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts — Jalen Hurts has been in the middle of several exciting games in the last few weeks and this contest should be no different :: Bill Streicher/USA TODAY Sports

Philadelphia is a home underdog Sunday for the first time since 2021. The Eagles are 5–0 in front of their fans this season and have won their last eight at the Linc, including a 31–7 rout of the 49ers in the NFC Championship. Both Brock Purdy and backup quarterback Josh Johnson were injured in that game, which ultimately doomed San Francisco. Now, a largely healthy 49ers team has a chance to avenge that defeat and gain ground on the No. 1 overall seed.

San Francisco’s 31–13 win over Seattle on Thanksgiving was its third in a row. Christian McCaffrey led the charge on offense with over 100 total yards and two scores and the defense held the Seahawks to two field goals at home — Seattle’s only touchdown came on a pick-six. The 49ers have excelled since their Week 9 bye, outscoring their opponents 92-30. Only the Cowboys (+162) have a better point differential than San Francisco (+140).

Buffalo almost upset Philadelphia last week but the Eagles survived thanks to a clutch kick from Jake Elliott that forced overtime, where Jalen Hurts won the game with his second rushing score. Philadelphia’s defense surrendered the most points it has all year in the 37–34 triumph and improved to 7–1 in one-score games.

The Eagles have the best record against the spread in the NFL at 7–2–2 and they’re in a rare position as an underdog. San Francisco has slipped up at times away from the Bay, though the 49ers have won their last two road games by double digits. Sunday’s result could decide the No. 1 seed in the NFC and thus where a potential playoff rematch would take place in January.

Verderame’s pick: Eagles +2.5, Over 46.5 (Philadelphia 30, San Francisco 27)
Manzano’s pick: Eagles +2.5, Over 46.5 (Philadelphia 33, San Francisco 31)
Wood’s pick: Eagles +2.5, Over 46.5 (San Francisco 27, Philadelphia 26)

2. Seattle Seahawks vs. Dallas Cowboys

Tony Pollard could have a big night Thursday against a less-than-stellar Seattle run defense :: Brace Hemmelgarn/USA TODAY Sports

Seattle has dropped its last three on the road while Dallas has been nothing short of dominant at home. The Cowboys are 5–0 with a plus-145 point differential at AT&T Stadium, which explains the hefty spread for Thursday’s matchup.

The Seahawks’ recent struggles have put their playoff hopes in jeopardy, especially considering their schedule down the stretch. After Thursday’s 31–13 loss to the 49ers, Seattle has lost three of four with Dallas, San Francisco again and Philadelphia on deck. Since the start of October, the Seahawks have been held under 20 points in half of their games and Geno Smith only has one more touchdown (eight) than interceptions (seven).

Dallas’ 45–10 triumph over the Commanders on Thanksgiving was its seventh by 20-plus points. It also continued the Cowboys’ streak of beating up on sub-.500 teams — they’re 0–2 against teams with winning records. Dak Prescott recorded his third game with four touchdowns this season last time out and he and Tony Pollard could both be in for big outings against a Seattle defense that ranks in the bottom half of the league against both the pass and run.

Only Philadelphia covers more often than Dallas (8–3), which is also tied for the highest over hit rate in the league (7–4). It’s been a rough few weeks for Seahawks bettors as the team is just 1–3–1 against the spread over its last five — the over has hit more often than not for Seattle during that stretch as its defense has struggled.

Verderame’s pick: Cowboys -9.5, Over 47.5 (Dallas 31, Seattle 20)
Manzano’s pick: Seahawks +9.5, Over 47.5 (Dallas 34, Seattle 27)
Wood’s pick: Cowboys -9.5, Over 47.5 (Dallas 34, Seattle 20)

3. Denver Broncos vs. Houston Texans

Broncos head coach Sean Payton looks on while coaching in a game. — Sean Payton has the Broncos back in the playoff race and a win Sunday over the Texans would put them in good position.; :: Denny Medley/USA Today network

Denver is in Houston for a pivotal game this week between two wild-card hopefuls. The Broncos beat the Browns on Sunday for their fifth straight win while the Texans just saw their three-game winning streak come to an end at the hands of the Jaguars. That was just Houston’s second loss at NRG Stadium of the year and first since Week 2; the oddsmakers expect the home team to get back on track against one of the hottest teams in the league.

Turnovers once again propelled Denver to victory last week. Sean Payton’s Broncos added three more to their league-leading tally (22) in a 29–12 win against the Browns. Russell Wilson had a pedestrian passing performance but he contributed to a big day for the team on the ground. The defense is allowing just 16 points per game during the win streak compared to the 33.3 it surrendered on average during the first six games of the season.

The Texans couldn’t complete the sweep of Jacksonville, falling 24–21 to their biggest competition in the AFC South. C.J. Stroud recorded his fourth straight game with 300 passing yards and totaled three touchdowns but Trevor Lawrence dissected Houston’s secondary, something Demeco Ryans’ defense likely won’t have to worry about against Wilson. The Texans are also one of the best teams in the league at taking care of the ball with only 10 turnovers in 11 games.

Denver is one spot behind Houston in the standings even though both teams are 6–5 because the Texans hold the tiebreaker based on conference win percentage. A win for either team would go a long way toward ending their respective playoff droughts.

Verderame’s pick: Broncos +3.5, Under 45.5 (Houston 23, Denver 21)
Manzano’s pick: Broncos +3.5, Under 45.5 (Houston 23, Denver 20)
Wood’s pick: Texans -3.5, Under 45.5 (Houston 24, Denver 20)

4. Kansas City Chiefs vs. Green Bay Packers

Packers quarterback Jordan Love looks to throw a pass. — Jordan Love is coming off perhaps his best game as a pro and now he gets to take on Patrick Mahomes in prime time :: Lon Horwedel/USA TODAY Sports

Slowly but surely, Green Bay is making a playoff push. The Packers went winless in October but they’ve won three of their last four in November, including a 29–22 Thanksgiving upset over the Lions and now they’re right on the Vikings’ heels for the final NFC wild-card spot.

Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City got back on track last week with a 31–17 win in Las Vegas. The reigning MVP threw for his most yards since Week 7 and Travis Kelce also had his best outing in over a month. The Chiefs had lost twice in their previous three games to the Eagles and Broncos before dispatching their division foe. They’re back on the road at Lambeau this Sunday in a prime-time spot.

Jordan Love had perhaps his best game as a pro last Thursday in Detroit. He tied a career high with three touchdowns, did not commit a turnover or take a sack and made a few plays with his legs. Love found rookie Jayden Reed for a score and displayed a connection with Christian Watson that’s been missing for much of the season. Green Bay’s defense forced three turnovers on Jared Goff and that ended up being the difference in the game.

Overs have been a rarity for Kansas City this season. The Chiefs allow the third-fewest points per game (16.5) and the Packers are also top 10 by that metric (20.4). However, it’s worth noting this is tied for the lowest total of the season for Kansas City and the other game with a 41.5-point total against the Jets saw the over cash.

Verderame’s pick: Chiefs -6.5, Over 42.5 (Kansas City 27, Green Bay 17)
Manzano’s pick: Chiefs -6.5, Over 42.5 (Kansas City 30, Green Bay 20)
Wood’s pick: Chiefs -6.5, Over 42.5 (Kansas City 27, Green Bay 20)

5. Detroit Lions vs. New Orleans Saints

Saints quarterback Derek Carr will be working with a shorthanded receiving corps Sunday. — Saints quarterback Derek Carr will be working with a shorthanded receiving corps Sunday :: Brett Davis/USA TODAY Sports

Detroit and New Orleans are both coming off tough losses to divisional foes. The Lions fell to the Packers 29–22 at home on Thanksgiving and on Sunday the Saints dropped a road game to the Falcons, 24–15, ceding first place in the NFC South in the process.

This is New Orleans’ first game back in the Big Easy since Week 9 and its first time as a home underdog all year. Derek Carr threw for over 300 yards in his return from concussion protocol but the Saints lost Chris Olave to a concussion and could be without Rashid Shaheed (quad) as well against Detroit. Dennis Allen’s defense was gashed on the ground by Atlanta for over 200 rushing yards and the Lions will likely attack this unit in the same way with David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs.

Jared Goff’s home/away splits typically show he performs better in a friendly environment but he’s held his own on the road so far this season, aside from a blowout loss in Baltimore. He led Detroit on a game-winning drive to beat the Chargers in Los Angeles a few weeks ago and threw for a season-high 353 yards in a win in Tampa Bay earlier in the year. The loss to Green Bay continued a troubling defensive trend for the Lions, who have allowed 31 points per game since their Week 9 bye.

The Lions (7–4) have performed much better than the Saints (2–8–1) against the spread this season and have a better record on the road (4–1) than New Orleans does at home (2–2). Detroit hasn’t dropped back-to-back games since last October but the Saints desperately need this game with the Falcons back on top of the division.

Verderame’s pick: Saints +4.5, Under 45.5 (Detroit 24, New Orleans 20)
Manzano’s pick: Lions -4.5, Over 45.5 (Detroit 33, New Orleans 24)
Wood’s pick: Lions -4.5, Under 45.5 (Detroit 24, New Orleans 17)

Final Thoughts

Verderame: The Chiefs have been very bizarre offensively this season, but they looked good in their final three quarters against the Raiders, scoring 31 points. Perhaps most importantly, they also scored 17 points in the second half, after only having one second-half touchdown all season. While the Packers are improving, they’re no match for Kansas City when the Chiefs are humming. Look for Rashee Rice to continue ascending as a rookie receiver as well. Last thing, the Chiefs are somehow 7–4 against the spread despite their offensive inconsistencies.

Manzano: I keep getting burned by the Seahawks not covering the spread, but they’re in desperate need of a win to keep their NFC wild-card spot. They won’t get it done in Dallas, but the Seahawks should keep it close with so much on the line. Don’t expect the Saints to cover at home because of their poor defense and turnover-prone offense. Lions running backs Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery might go off in the Superdome. The Saints allowed 228 rushing yards to the Falcons last week.

Wood: I picked the 49ers to exact revenge on the Eagles, but I admittedly don’t feel great about it considering the resilience Philly has shown in close games this season. I’m going to count on the Cowboys to cover at home until they give me a reason to doubt them and I also believe the Broncos’ torrid turnover pace will finally dry up this week and the Texans will end their winning streak. Backing two road favorites gives me a bit of pause but the Chiefs looked more like themselves against the Raiders and the Saints simply can’t be trusted to keep pace with the Lions without some of their best offensive playmakers.

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Published Nov 30, 2023

SI EDITORIAL