Fact or Fiction: Lamar Jackson, Ravens Will Capture AFC’s No. 1 Seed

Baltimore is back on top of the AFC after an overtime win against the Rams, while the Chiefs suddenly have just a one-game lead in the AFC West.

Lamar Jackson delivered an MVP-like performance in the win against the Rams to put the Ravens on the No. 1 seed line in the AFC again.

Jackson and the Ravens might not have the top spot for long if the Dolphins beat the Titans on Monday night. Baltimore, however, might have the most complete team in the AFC, especially with how well the offense played against the Rams.

The Chiefs have fallen two games behind in the race for the No. 1 seed after back-to-back losses to the Packers and Bills. They might lose their lead in the AFC West if they don’t turn it around soon because the Broncos are suddenly only one game behind.

For this week’s Fact or Fiction, we forecast whether Baltimore will claim the No. 1 seed and if the Chiefs can hold off the Broncos.

Ravens will capture AFC’s No. 1 seed

Manzano’s view: Fact

The Ravens (10–3) might be thanking the Rams because their back-and-forth battle Sunday forced Jackson and his offense to find another gear to bail out the defense during an off day. The Ravens outlasted the Rams, 37–31, in overtime, and are on track to win the AFC’s No. 1 seed, especially if the passing attack builds off what they did Sunday. Jackson had a standout performance with 316 passing yards and received plenty of help from wide receivers Odell Beckham Jr., Zay Flowers and tight end Isaiah Likely, who has filled in for the injured Mark Andrews. 

The Ravens, who have a two-game lead over the Browns for first in the AFC North, have a tough remaining schedule, with games against the Jaguars, 49ers, Dolphins and Steelers. With the way the Ravens played offensively, it wouldn’t be a surprise if they win at least three of their final four regular-season games. A 13–4 record might be enough to enter the playoffs with the top seed.

Jackson leads all quarterbacks with 644 rushing yards :: Tommy Gilligan/USA TODAY Sports

Broncos will steal AFC West from Chiefs

Manzano’s view: Fiction

The Chiefs (8–5) appear vulnerable with a broken offense, but luckily for them, three of their final four regular season games are against teams not competing for a playoff spot. That’s bad news for the Broncos (7–6), who pulled within one game of catching the Chiefs for first place in the AFC West. 

If the Chiefs handle business against the Patriots, Raiders and Chargers, that should be enough for them to capture the division for the eighth consecutive season. Kansas City also has a tough game against Jake Browning and the Bengals, who have won two straight. The Chiefs might not be good enough to beat the Bengals and that says plenty about how their season has gone through 14 weeks. The Broncos have a tough game against the Lions next week before ending the regular season vs. the Patriots, Chargers and Raiders.

Browning’s Bengals will make the postseason

Manzano’s view: Fact

The Bengals will make the playoffs with Browning—a prediction many would have laughed at one week ago. It’s not very bold of me to make this prediction now that the Bengals have won two in a row without Joe Burrow, but hey, better late than never. Browning had a memorable week with two stellar performances—a road win against the Jaguars on Monday Night Football followed by Sunday’s home victory vs. the Colts. 

At 7–6, Cincinnati is now tied with Indianapolis, Houston, Denver, Buffalo and Pittsburgh for the final two AFC wild-card spots, which currently belong to Pittsburgh and Indianapolis. The Bengals can help their postseason odds by beating the Steelers in Week 16. Cincinnati also has remaining games against the Vikings, Chiefs and Browns. That’s certainly a tough four-game gantlet, but these Bengals are well coached with Zac Taylor and have shown plenty of fight since Burrow suffered a season-ending injury.

Fields, Eberflus will return to Chicago in 2024

Manzano’s view: Fiction

Ironically, the Bears traded the 2023 No. 1 overall pick to help Justin Fields succeed in Chicago, but now that trade might be the reason why the organization could be forced to move on from the third-year signal caller. Fields had an outstanding performance in the 28–13 win against the Lions to help the Bears improve to 5–8. But, unfortunately for Fields, the Panthers (1–12) lost again Sunday—a 28–6 setback vs. the Saints—and appear well on their way to claim the No. 1 pick in the ’24 draft, a pick that belongs to the Bears. Chicago probably wouldn’t pass on quarterback prospects Caleb Williams and Drake Maye. 

In his seven games not against the Commanders and Browns this season, Fields has thrown for five touchdowns and five interceptions :: Mike Dinovo/USA TODAY Sports

As for coach Matt Eberflus, his Chicago defense has shown plenty of improvement in recent weeks. The Bears held the Vikings and Lions under 14 points during their two-game winning streak. Also, the Bears have one of the best run defenses in the NFL, entering Week 14 only allowing 79 rushing yards per game. If the Bears continue to win and display improvements defensively, Eberflus likely will be back for a third season, and possibly with a new starting quarterback.

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Belichick should return if Patriots win out

Manzano’s view: Fiction

This far-fetched scenario likely won’t happen because the Patriots still have games against the Chiefs, Broncos, Bills and Jets. But if it does, Patriots owner Robert Kraft could favor retaining Belichick for a 25th season as the head coach in New England. Kraft might already be hinting at keeping Belichick because he doesn’t want to let the legendary coach go without executing a trade—similar to how the Saints got a first-round pick from the Broncos for the right to hire Sean Payton. In turn, Belichick might say fire me or I’ll retire, depending on whether he wants to continue coaching. 

But Belichick appeared rejuvenated during Thursday’s upset win against the Steelers. A strong finish to the season would validate that the six-time Super Bowl champion still has plenty to offer in New England or a new team, despite a few shaky seasons. Regardless of what happens in the next month, it appears Belichick and Kraft are headed for a divorce. Perhaps the only mystery here is whether Kraft will fire Belichick or not let him leave without executing a trade with another team. This will be an intriguing story line during the final four weeks of the regular season.