NFL Week 15 Preview: Best Games, Best Bets, Predictions

Our experts have ATS and over/under picks for the five biggest games of the week, including an interconference battle between the Cowboys and Bills.

SI Editorial | Dec 14, 2023

NFL Week 15 Preview: Best Games, Best Bets, Predictions /

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With only four weeks left in the NFL’s regular season, the time for a mad dash to the postseason has come.

On Saturday, there’s a trio of games featuring six teams with playoff hopes, including the Colts and Steelers, Vikings and Bengals, and Broncos and Lions.

On Sunday, a dozen games are highlighted by the Cowboys and Bills squaring off in Orchard Park. Dallas is trying to hold onto a slim lead in the NFC East, while Buffalo is attempting to keep hope alive for a playoff run.

Elsewhere, the Ravens travel to take on the Jaguars come Sunday night. Jacksonville is fighting a two-game losing streak, while Baltimore is looking to expand its lead in the AFC North.

Let’s look at the week’s best games, and where the best bets for each might be.

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1. Dallas Cowboys vs. Buffalo Bills

Dak Prescott has risen to the top of the MVP race; a win over Josh Allen and the Bills would further enhance his chances

Dallas takes its five-game winning streak on the road this week to Buffalo, where the Cowboys are a rare underdog against a Bills team that has its back against the wall, even after a big win over the Chiefs last week. Dak Prescott’s play over the past month has positioned him as the MVP frontrunner and a strong outing in Orchard Park can further cement his case with America’s Team in a battle for the NFC East title and No. 1 seed in the conference.

Last week’s 33–13 win over Philadelphia went a long way toward Dallas taking back the division and it sent a message to the rest of the league after questions about its ability to beat Super Bowl contenders. The Eagles were held without an offensive touchdown and surrendered three turnovers to a swarming Cowboys defense, which now has 21 takeaways. Prescott added two more touchdowns to his league-leading tally (28) and he’s up against a banged-up Buffalo secondary this week, albeit on the road, where his splits are less impressive.

The Bills were in desperate need of a win on Sunday to keep their playoff hopes alive and for the second time in two seasons Josh Allen bested Patrick Mahomes at Arrowhead Stadium. Kadarius Toney’s go-ahead touchdown was called back due to an offsides call, and that play understandably garnered tons of attention, but Allen and, crucially, James Cook were a two-man show for Buffalo. They accounted for the team’s only two touchdowns and Cook finished with a career-high 83 receiving yards. It was another forgettable outing for Stefon Diggs, who finished with 24 yards on four catches, but Allen still got it done.

Dallas has covered the spread at a higher clip than any team in the NFL (9–4) while the Bills are tied for the second-worst record (5–8). Buffalo has lost four times outright as a favorite to teams that are nowhere near as good as the Cowboys and is tied for the highest under hit rate in the NFL (9–4), which is at odds with Dallas’ tendency for overs (8–5). Something has to give.

Verderame’s pick: Cowboys +2.5, Over 50.5 (Dallas 30, Buffalo 24)
Manzano’s pick: Cowboys +2.5, Under 50.5 (Dallas 24, Buffalo 23)
Wood’s pick: Cowboys +2.5, Under 50.5 (Buffalo 24, Dallas 23)

2. Baltimore Ravens vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Odell Bechham Jr. has been more productive recently in the Ravens’ passing game :: Tommy Gilligan / USA TODAY Sports

Last week’s results were optimal for Baltimore, which has a firm grasp on the AFC No. 1 seed after a win and losses for Miami and Kansas City. Jacksonville’s position atop the AFC South is much more tenuous after its second straight loss. Now the Jaguars are underdogs on Sunday Night Football at home, where they’ve struggled all season.

The Ravens got past the Rams in dramatic fashion last week on a walk-off punt return in overtime for a 37–31 win. That was just the second time Baltimore’s defense allowed 30-plus points but its offense had an answer at every step. Lamar Jackson racked up nearly 400 total yards and he found Odell Beckham Jr., Isaiah Likely and Zay Flowers for touchdowns. The road has been good to the Ravens all year as they are 5–1 outside of Maryland, though they did lose to the Jaguars, 28–27, on the road late last season.

Trevor Lawrence didn’t miss any time after his Week 13 Monday Night Football ankle injury but he struggled in a 31–27 loss to Cleveland. He threw a season-high three interceptions and completed a season-low 56% of his pass attempts. Joe Flacco threw for over 300 yards and three touchdowns on Jacksonville’s defense, which has now given up 30-plus points to backup quarterbacks in back-to-back weeks.

These teams are both 8–5 against the spread but Baltimore is 3–2 over its last five games while the Jags are 2–3. Neither team has performed well in this particular position, though, as the Ravens are 1–3 against the spread as a road favorite and Jacksonville is 0–2 as a home underdog. Baltimore’s fourth-quarter scoring issues could be a factor down the stretch, especially with the hook.

Verderame’s pick: Jaguars +3.5, Over 42.5 (Jacksonville 24, Baltimore 23)
Manzano’s pick: Jaguars +3.5, Over 42.5 (Baltimore 30, Jacksonville 27)
Wood’s pick: Jaguars +3.5, Over 42.5 (Baltimore 27, Jacksonville 24)

3. Denver Broncos vs. Detroit Lions

Jared Goff usually plays well at home, but the Lions face a tough challenge this week vs. Denver. — Jared Goff usually plays well at home, but the Lions face a tough challenge this week vs. Denver

Denver got back in the win column last week with a key divisional win over Los Angeles. The Broncos are now one of six AFC teams with a 7–6 record and they’re intent on not falling back to .500 Saturday night in Detroit. The Lions, on the other hand, are starting to unravel. Their defense has allowed 28-plus points in three straight games and the Vikings have an outside chance to catch them in the NFC North.

Russell Wilson and Courtland Sutton connected for a touchdown for the 10th time this season in a 24–7 triumph over the Chargers. Denver’s defense put together its best all-around effort of the season, aided by Justin Herbert’s early exit, and added two more turnovers to its league-leading tally (24). The Broncos have had their struggles on the road, namely the 70–20 loss to the Dolphins, but they’re now 3–3 away from Mile High with a trip to Ford Field on deck.

Jared Goff threw for a season-low 161 yards in a resounding 28–13 defeat in Chicago. After going down 10–0, Detroit took back the lead before halftime only to be shut out in the second half as Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta were both largely neutralized. Running backs Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery had 66 yards apiece but the defense could not slow down Justin Fields and the Bears for the second time in four weeks.

Even with these recent struggles, the Lions’ 8–5 mark against the spread is one of the best in the league. Denver does not deliver as often for bettors with a 5–7–1 mark for the season but the team is 5–2 against the spread during its 6–1 run. The under has also hit in all but one of the Broncos’ last seven games.

Verderame’s pick: Lions -4.5, Under 47.5 (Detroit 25, Denver 17)
Manzano’s pick: Broncos +4.5, Under 47.5 (Detroit 23, Denver 20)
Wood’s pick: Broncos +4.5, Under 47.5 (Detroit 21, Denver 20)

4. Philadelphia Eagles vs. Seattle Seahawks

Philadelphia’s dynamic WR duo of DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown take on a Seahawks secondary that struggled last week / Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

Philadelphia is in a tough spot, having lost two in a row ahead of its cross-country trip to Seattle to play a Seahawks team that’s not only a tough out at home but has beaten the Eagles in seven straight meetings. Of course, Seattle is having its own issues amid a four-game losing streak as its playoff hopes dwindle.

Dallas thoroughly embarrassed Philadelphia last week with a dominant 33–13 statement win. Prescott got the best of Jalen Hurts head-to-head and the Cowboys’ defense shined while the Eagles faltered on that side of the ball. Hurts, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith all lost fumbles and D’Andre Swift was neutralized for the second game in a row. The Seahawks matchup is an opportunity for Philly to figure things out on offense against a porous defense and on defense with Geno Smith’s status in doubt.

Drew Lock got the start in Smith’s place in last week’s 28–16 loss to the 49ers. He moved the ball well enough as Tyler Lockett had his best game in weeks but two turnovers — and a DK Metcalf ejection — proved to be costly against the NFL’s hottest team. Kenneth Walker III was also ineffective in his return after two missed games. Seattle’ surrendered a career-high 368 passing yards to Brock Purdy, and that secondary could be an issue against Brown, Smith and Dallas Goedert.

Only the Cowboys cover at a higher rate than the Eagles, who are 7–4–2 against the spread this year. Seattle, however, has a knack for keeping things close with a 3–1 record against the spread during its current losing streak. This will be the Seahawks’ fifth straight game as an underdog, a position that has been profitable as they’re 4–3 against the spread with one upset win under their belt.

Verderame’s pick: Eagles -4.5, Over 47.5 (Philadelphia 29, Seattle 20)
Manzano’s pick: Eagles -4.5, Over 47.5 (Philadelphia 30, Seattle 20)
Wood’s pick: Eagles -4.5, Over 47.5 (Philadelphia 31, Seattle 23)

5. Minnesota Vikings vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Bengals receiver Ja’Marr Chase will look to get the better of his former LSU teammate Justin Jefferson :: Kyle Terada/USA Today Sports

Minnesota and Cincinnati, both at 7–6 and onto second- and third-string quarterbacks, are in need of wins this week in the crowded playoff pictures in their respective conferences. The Vikings beat the Raiders 3–0 on Sunday after benching Joshua Dobbs for Nick Mullens. The Bengals were much more dominant in a 34–14 victory over the Colts to improve to 2–1 with Jake Browning as the starter.

The road has been kind to Minnesota, which is 5–2 away from Minneapolis. But the Vikings not only enter Sunday’s game with their third different starting quarterback, but two of their top skill-position players, Justin Jefferson and Alexander Mattison, were both injured on Sunday — Jefferson reportedly plans to play. Brian Flores’s defense is playing its best football of the year, having not allowed a touchdown in the team’s last two games. Conversely, the offense has only found the end zone once during that stretch.

Cincinnati’s offense has had no trouble scoring with Browning under center with 34 points on the board in back-to-back games. Joe Mixon has come to life with three total touchdowns and at least 100 total yards in back-to-back games and backup Chase Brown got in on the action as well. The Bengals defense even slowed down the Colts’ rushing attack, which has been an issue all season for this unit.

Minnesota is a tough team to bet against as an underdog with a 4–1–1 mark against the spread, including three outright wins. The under is also 10–3 in Vikings games this season, which is tied for the highest hit rate in the league. Overs have been more likely for Cincinnati so far, which is 6–6–1 against the spread on the year.

Verderame’s pick: Vikings +3.5, Under 39.5 (Cincinnati 17, Minnesota 15)
Manzano’s pick: Bengals -3.5, Under 39.5 (Cincinnati 23, Minnesota 13)
Wood’s pick: Vikings +3.5, Under 39.5 (Cincinnati 20, Minnesota 19)

Final Thoughts

Verderame: The Cowboys might be the hottest team in football, with only the Niners having an argument over them. This Sunday, Dallas goes to play a Bills team that has played better in recent weeks but still is extremely fortunate to have held on against the Chiefs. Look for Dak Prescott to continue toward winning the NFL’s MVP, with Buffalo being undermanned in the secondary.

Manzano: The Vikings are a mess offensively, with poor quarterback play and a concerning chest injury to Justin Jefferson. Even if Jefferson plays in Cincinnati, don’t expect much from quarterback Nick Mullens, who has taken over for Joshua Dobbs. The Bengals received another standout performance from quarterback Jake Browning and the defense didn’t allow the Colts to score points in the second half last week. Also, expect another sluggish defensive performance from Baltimore with safety Kyle Hamilton dealing with an injury. But Lamar Jackson and the offense will save the day in Jacksonville.

Wood: I’m all over the underdogs this week as the Eagles were the only favorite I picked to cover. Backing the Bills to upset the Cowboys is a bit scary, but it worked out last week against the Chiefs and Josh Allen knows full well what’s on the line. The Vikings will be a good test for Browning and the Bengals, one I think they pass in part because of what Minnesota is missing on offense.

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Published Dec 14, 2023

SI EDITORIAL