Ten Burning Questions on the NFL Head Coaching Carousel
We are closer to the start of the annual coaching carousel than the start of the NFL playoffs, because, in many ways, the carousel is already spinning. There are three openings (Raiders, Panthers, Chargers) and at least as many to come over the final three weeks of the regular season.
What we have below is a set of burning questions about what might happen on the coaching market. These are questions I’ve been asking myself, and others around the league, and I’ll try to flesh out the answers here. I have a great deal of interest in the coaching space for various reasons, and every year I compile an exhaustive list of future candidates and rising position coaches heading into the season. That process is not perfect, nor is this hypothetical Q&A, but I do think it will capture the spirit of where things sit right now … at least as I see it.
Slowik, the Texans’ offensive coordinator, will be one name to watch this hiring cycle ... along with some much more well-known names.
Junfu Han/USA TODAY Network (Harbaugh); Troy Taormina/USA TODAY Sports (Slowik); Bob DeChiara/USA TODAY Sports (Belichick)
1. Who are the top coaching candidates right now?
All right, let’s get into it. At the beginning of the season, I had projected two coaches as “locks” for jobs: Lions OC Ben Johnson and Panthers DC Ejiro Evero. While I still think Evero may interview this offseason, which is incredible considering Carolina is the worst team in the NFL, I think it would be difficult for an owner to sell that hire (even though, as we’ve said a thousand times, the process is tragically flawed and owners shouldn’t care about being able to sell a hire). Again, Evero has been a bright light on two straight dismal teams. He was one of the most sought-after defensive coordinators in last year’s cycle. But I digress.
Johnson will have his pick of the litter. He did not pursue the Panthers’ opening a year ago, but I am certain that David Tepper is still interested in him. Johnson, too, would have the chance to come home. He was born and raised in the Carolinas, and the hire would be something of a major victory for Tepper, who preferred Johnson over any candidates in the 2022 cycle. As a side note, perhaps there is a chance Johnson’s arrival could allow for the keeping of Evero, which would stabilize Carolina’s defense.
Beyond Johnson, I think we’re looking at a few big names.
• Dan Quinn, defensive coordinator, Cowboys
• Jim Harbaugh, head coach, Michigan
• Frank Smith, offensive coordinator, Dolphins
• Mike Macdonald, defensive coordinator, Ravens
• Bobby Slowik, offensive coordinator, Texans
Additionally, we’re going to hear from some other experienced candidates, such as Steve Wilks, who has some strong ties to smart offensive coaches and could make an impressive run on the interview circuit; Raheem Morris, a finalist for the Colts’ job last year; and Brian Callahan and Lou Anarumo from the resurgent Bengals. Buccaneers OC Dave Canales could get some traction and start to help rebuild that pipeline of offensive play-callers that seems to dry up every couple of years. Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn could get a phone call, given how hot the Detroit staff is, and he comes with a personal recommendation from Bill Parcells. As could Ravens OC Todd Monken, who has also interviewed for head coaching jobs in the past and has been a game-changer offensively for Lamar Jackson.
2. I’ve seen reports of 10 potential job openings. Do you really think that many gigs will open this offseason?
Maybe! We mentioned that in our initial list of candidates in September. Back then, people were calling it a suspected “coachpocalypse.” As mentioned above, we have three openings (Raiders, Panthers and Chargers). The Patriots’ job is expected to open, but I think anything can happen there.
After those four, I think you would have to look at the Bears, with the personnel staff remaining in place. And, given the change in ownership, the Commanders, with new boss Josh Harris incorporating more of a data-driven regime in D.C.
Some potential wild-card situations that I would be curious about: the Cowboys, if they do not make a deep postseason run and feel threatened by the prospect of losing Dan Quinn. The Buccaneers, if the post–Tom Brady hangover still feels real and ownership feels like it’s time for a complete overhaul with some new voices and faces.
One point that a person in the coaching industry brought up to me recently that made some sense was this: If a team loses out on one of the big candidates, Harbaugh or Johnson or Quinn, they would be looking at either proven defensive coordinator candidates, or unproven offensive and defensive coordinator candidates. And lately, teams have seen the difficult side of unproven offensive and defensive coordinators.
So, they may ask themselves: What is the point of spending all this money to blow something up if we don’t really love the guy? We could see a bit of a contraction, maybe down to a fairly standard seven openings, unless an owner really falls in love with someone who is making their first appearance on the interview circuit.
There are two examples I can think of off the bat, both in the NFC South. The Saints need to look at their situation honestly and wonder whether they would get someone better than Dennis Allen, who has been coaching admirably through a brutal quarterback situation and a very prohibitive salary cap situation. And the Falcons are so young, so would they rather come in third place for their next candidate of choice, or make Arthur Smith duke it out with, say, Justin Fields at quarterback?
3. Where will Bill Belichick wind up?
This is such a fun question. If we’re assuming he will leave New England, I think there are three possible scenarios. One is the Panthers if Tepper is left at the end of musical chairs without someone such as Ben Johnson or Jim Harbaugh. Two would be the Chargers, if Los Angeles was to miss out on someone such as Harbaugh, who has family ties to the West Coast.
I don’t think the Commanders will go in that direction should Belichick become available. The feel I get from the Josh Harris ownership group is that they might be looking to start fresh in Washington if a move is made at the head coaching position. My own personal read on the situation is that the Commanders could try to grow like the Ravens, building around someone data-minded and not necessarily a traditional hard-nosed football guy.
So Scenario 3 would be something that is starting to become my favorite bet: Belichick will not coach in the NFL next year, do some television and reemerge, à la Tom Coughlin or Bill Parcells, in more of an advisory role.
What I would stress to everyone, as we see conflicting reports about the nature of Belichick’s situation emerging, is how complicated all of this is. The Belichick–Robert Kraft dynamic is like a marriage. There is some love there, but there is also resentment, pride, wandering eyes, the desire to build a legacy and everything else that complicates our human dynamic. Right now, if I were to guess, I’d say that Belichick will move on. But would I be completely shocked if there is some kind of final-hour swoon that keeps him in New England until he breaks Don Shula’s wins record? Of course not.
Vrabel could be a natural successor to Bill Belichick, but it would likely cost the Patriots some extra compensation.
Sam Navarro/USA TODAY Sports
4. Who do you think would make sense as the Patriots’ next coach?
Certainly many people have been pegging Patriots linebackers coach Jerod Mayo as a likely successor for the job, and for good reason. However, I would again caution folks on how complicated these dynamics can be. I give this example all the time, but I went to Syracuse, where legendary head basketball coach Jim Boeheim had about five different Jerod Mayos before he actually left and a successor was actually chosen. Mayo is great. He is a future head coach. He’s turned down other opportunities because New England is where he wants to be.
But, part of me wonders, given Kraft’s history, whether he would also be intrigued by the idea of paying a premium for a coach who already has a proven track record of success, like he did with Belichick in the first place. I wonder what would happen if he got on the horn with the Titans and said: Hey, Mike Vrabel is one of the best coaches in the NFL, and, the next time his contract is up, you’re going to have to pay him commensurate with the top coaches in the league (more so than he is already getting paid). You guys are rebuilding. You could use some draft capital that maybe doesn’t involve our top-three pick this year. We already have a massive coaching salary built into the budget. Mike loves it here. He’s a franchise legend. Here’s a 2025 pick and a bundle of cash.
Obviously, the Titans wouldn’t want to surrender one of the best coaches in the league, but could they see an inevitability at some point if Vrabel was interested. This is just a hypothetical based on Vrabel’s ties to the Patriots.
I remember Vrabel’s expression following the 2021 team’s playoff loss to the Bengals in Nashville, when he looked at a reporter and said, “I’m going to be the head coach here for a long time.” It felt very certain. I know how respected and ingrained he is with the community there. All of it would complicate the situation, which, again, we’re just spinning some yarn about because you asked.
5. Is the Chargers’ job still a good one?
Yes and no. There will need to be some salary cap concessions made to get this team on track, and the defensive rebuilding process will be a steep one. However, if you are a head coach and you are able to come in with your general manager of choice, I think this could be a pretty sweet deal knowing that you’re at least set at the QB position. I think the Chargers’ job was at peak desirability last year, which is why we’d heard Sean Payton connected with the gig so many times.
It’s up to L.A. to dispel the notion that this team is not willing to throw money around—and not just in free agency, but in all the little aspects where spending can give a team an edge. Sometimes there are parts of a coaching job that make it “good” in theory, but we never really talk about them. Of course, any complaints about the way the Chargers operate could just be the remainder of past sour grapes.
Still, I think you can win in L.A. Brandon Staley got close with a pretty green coaching staff and a lot of bad luck.
6. What would be the most attractive location for a prospective coach right now?
Weirdly, it might be the Commanders. While I know it’s a risky career move to go anywhere without the quarterback of choice, Washington has a pretty good roster in place. And while the division is tough, I think an incoming coach will be treated well, and the new ownership group will be patient with them, given that they are new leadership’s first real hire. Harris sounds like he prefers the model in Baltimore (and, obviously, who wouldn’t?). To me, that projects pragmatism, sturdiness and innovation. I would like to be a part of a process like that.
Chicago, too, would be a great job even if there are some complicated power dynamics there and you would inherit a personnel staff. It’s a good personnel staff. That team is on the upswing, you would have your choice at QB1 and you would be in a division that is pretty wide open. There’s a good defense in place.
Tied for third would be Carolina and Los Angeles. I think Tepper, having recently let go of a lot of coaches, is probably sensitive to that perception. You will get some runway with the job, and, as I’ve said, I think coaching Bryce Young is a good thing.
7. Are there any candidates who might emerge that would surprise people?
There always are. And I’ve been racking my brain over the past few weeks to try to figure out whom I’ve missed. I mentioned Canales above, who came up through the ranks in Seattle and took a job in Tampa Bay that a few people turned down. He ended up not only making the best of the situation but flourishing. He is proof to take these dolts who make the coaching list with a grain of salt every year. If the Giants continue to win, why wouldn’t someone interview Wink Martindale? If the Jaguars win out, why wouldn’t you interview Press Taylor? Last year, David Shaw, with some specific ties to Denver, made his foray into the NFL coaching scene. If the Bills continue to run the table, what about Joe Brady?
Tepper has churned through coaches in his tenure as Panthers owner, which may make him even more interested in landing a big-name candidate.
Dale Zanine/USA TODAY Sports
8. What’s the deal in Carolina?
I think Tepper did his time in the pinball machine after the Frank Reich situation. And, as I wrote after Reich was fired, I think he’ll get the benefit of learning from a disaster, with the expense being cash out of his bank account and the sacrifice of people’s reputations. From what I gathered, the Carolina situation was a mess for most of the year. That was disappointing because I believed in Tepper’s stated mission of hiring good coaches, not the head coach’s friends. The problem is that there were so many individual visions, goals and grabs at power. There was not a kind of fundamental hierarchy, which is the one benefit to hiring all of your friends. Everyone knows what the deal is. In Charlotte, there were a handful of guys who had already interviewed for head coaching jobs throwing elbows.
So, I think life will be better this time around. I also think Young is really good, and that there are coaches who want to work with him. That’s a little bit of a sunnier perspective than you’ll get elsewhere. But I also get the sense that Tepper truly is hustling and trying to bridge his knowledge gap. That’s so important for owners. Many bad owners stay bad because they lack the desire to develop NFL connections. I get the sense that Tepper is trying to ingrain himself in the process and land a big-time candidate. That’s why I think Johnson and Harbaugh make the most sense there.
9. Dan Quinn has been a top head coaching candidate for years. Why is he still in Dallas?
I would imagine that it’s a lot of fun to coach Micah Parsons, for one. And knowing how much Quinn put into the job in Atlanta (where he was the head coach from 2015 to ’20), perhaps it was nice to not have to wear the crown for a little while. I also wonder whether he is being extremely selective for his next go-round. One fun thought I had: What if Pete Carroll were to ascend into Seattle’s front office, say as the team’s chief competition officer (CCO), work alongside John Schneider and bring in his former protégé Quinn to keep the vibe alive in Seattle?
I don’t know why, but I see Quinn holding out for that fairy-tale kind of job. Or, let’s say, Carroll retired and the Seahawks chose to go in a different direction, feeling they need an elite offensive play-caller to compete in a division with Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay. What if Dallas felt the pressure of potentially losing Quinn, and the Cowboys, say, get throttled by the 49ers’ defense in the playoffs? Would Jerry Jones keep the locker room happy and pair Quinn with a dynamic play-caller in 2024?
10. What will be the theme of the 2023–24 coaching carousel?
I think we will reflect back on this cycle and see teams willing to pay a premium for experience. The other day, Jay Glazer at Fox Sports mentioned that Washington could try to swing a trade for Mike Tomlin. While I think the Steelers would be absolutely foolish to let go of one of the best coaches in the NFL, I think the thought process is smart if, indeed, that is where Washington is headed. There really aren’t a lot of great head coaches. Could more trades, and more high-profile poaching of experienced winners be the answer? The cost of a big swing and miss on a first-time head coach with no experience is a lot greater than the cost of a swing and miss on someone who at least has a handle on the job (maybe with a few exceptions, such as Josh McDaniels in Las Vegas, for example). I do think that, with the surge in young head coaches, we lost some of the art when it comes to aspects of the job, such as game management.
To bring it back around to Johnson, that’s why I was impressed when I heard one of the main reasons he wanted to come back to Detroit was to see this season through the eyes of a head coach. Too many people are shot into these roles too quickly, and not given the chance to learn what they don’t know.
