NFL Week 16 Preview: Best Games, Best Bets, Predictions

Our experts have ATS and over/under picks for the five biggest games of the week, including a matchup of the two highest-scoring teams in the league.

SI Editorial | Dec 22, 2023

NFL Week 16 Preview: Best Games, Best Bets, Predictions /

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There’s no bigger game on the NFL Week 16 schedule than Ravens at 49ers on Christmas night.

But the potential Super Bowl preview—also a matchup between the current top seeds in the AFC and NFC—is just one of many games with playoff implications this week.

The Cowboys need a win in Miami to get one step closer to winning the NFC East. The Dolphins are also in a similar position when it comes to the AFC East. The Bills aren’t far behind the Dolphins, and now have a road matchup against the struggling Chargers. The Eagles aren’t leading the NFC East because of tiebreakers, but they can retake the top spot by beating the Giants and for the Dolphins to beat the Cowboys.

Over in the AFC South, there’s a three-way tie between the Jaguars, Texans and Colts. All three have tough matchups this week: Jaguars at Buccaneers, Colts at Falcons and Browns at Texans.

The Lions have a comfortable three-game lead in the NFC North, but they can wrap up the division this weekend by beating the Vikings, who are fighting for a wild-card spot.

It was tough narrowing down the list to five games this week, but we made it work. Here’s everything you need to know about the five critical matchups.

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1. Baltimore Ravens vs. San Francisco 49ers

49ers quarterback Brock Purdy has emerged as the MVP favorite :: Cary Edmondson/USA TODAY Sports

Monday’s Christmas Night matchup between Baltimore and San Francisco is a meeting between the two best teams in the league. The Ravens and 49ers are the No. 1 seeds in their respective conferences with identical 11–3 records, powered by dominant defenses and MVP-candidate quarterbacks. Brock Purdy is the odds-on favorite after leading his team to a sixth straight win while Lamar Jackson has the second-best odds amid a four-game winning streak.

Baltimore made quick work of the Jaguars on the road last week in a 23–7 win. The Ravens established the run to the tune of 251 rushing yards, led by 97 from Lamar Jackson, but lost breakout rookie running back Keaton Mitchell to an ACL tear. Jackson finished with just 171 passing yards but his connection with tight end Isaiah Likely is blossoming as the two have connected five times for 70-plus yards and a touchdown in back-to-back weeks. After allowing 31 points to the Rams, Baltimore’s defense returned to form, forcing two turnovers and holding Jacksonville scoreless on three red-zone trips.

San Francisco scored the most points it has all season in a 45–29 road win in Arizona last week. Purdy recorded his third game of the year with four touchdowns and no interceptions as Deebo Samuel and Christian McCaffrey caught two apiece and McCaffrey, the NFL’s leading rusher, added a score on the ground. The Cardinals’ 29 points were the most the 49ers have allowed since their Week 8 loss to the Bengals, though the unit did add two turnovers to its league-leading count (25).

The Ravens have only been installed as an underdog once all season, a game they won outright in Cincinnati. The 49ers are used to being the favorite, but they’re just 3–3 against the spread at home despite their 5–1 mark straight up.

Verderame’s pick: Ravens +5.5, Under 45.5 (San Francisco 24, Baltimore 20)
Manzano’s pick: 49ers -5.5, Over 46.5 (San Francisco 30, Baltimore 20)
Wood’s pick: Ravens +5.5, Over 45.5 (San Francisco 27, Baltimore 23)

2. Dallas Cowboys vs. Miami Dolphins

Miami Dolphins running back Raheem Mostert and quarterback Tua Tagovailoa — Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa takes a post-game selfie with the NFL’s leader in rushing touchdowns, Raheem Mostert :: Jasen Vinlove/USA TODAY Sports

The two highest-scoring teams in the NFL go head-to-head at Hard Rock Stadium on Christmas Eve in a game with the highest over/under of the week. Dallas is coming off an embarrassing 31–10 defeat to Buffalo on the road, which ended its five-game winning streak. Miami got right in a 30–0 blowout of the Jets without Tyreek Hill (ankle) after a surprising 28–27 loss to the Titans the week prior.

Philadelphia’s loss on Monday worked in favor of the Cowboys, who maintained first place in the NFC East, though there’s still a lot to be figured out after that beatdown by the Bills. Dak Prescott was playing like the league MVP before he was stopped in his tracks — he threw for a season-low 134 yards and had his first game with zero touchdowns since Week 1. While offense was shut down, the defense surrendered a whopping 266 rushing yards as Josh Allen’s arm was largely a non-factor in the loss. The Dolphins have the No. 4 rushing offense in the NFL, which could be advantageous against Dallas’ spotty run defense.

Even without Hill, the league’s leading receiver by a wide margin, Miami had no issue scoring against New York. Jaylen Waddle finally had his breakout game, as he finished with 142 yards and a score, and Raheem Mostert added two more touchdowns to his league-leading tally (20). The Dolphins’ defense pitched its first shutout of the season, forcing four turnovers and racking up six sacks in the process. Of course, slowing down the Cowboys’ offense is a much tougher task than doing so against the Jets.

Dallas and Miami are in a six-way tie for the best record against the spread in the league at 9–5 and the over is also 8–6 for these two teams. The Cowboys have won the last four meetings with the Dolphins dating back to 2007.

Verderame’s pick: Cowboys +1.5, Over 50.5 (Dallas 31, Miami 25)
Manzano’s pick: Cowboys +1.5, Over 50.5 (Dallas 30, Miami 28)
Wood’s pick: Dolphins -1.5, Over 50.5 (Miami 31, Dallas 27)

3. Cleveland Browns vs. Houston Texans

Joe Flacco throws the football — Joe Flacco led the Browns in a comeback win over the Bears last week :: Scott Galvin/USA TODAY Sports

Houston will not have C.J. Stroud (concussion) back under center Sunday against Cleveland, with both teams battling for a postseason spot. The Browns hold a one-game lead over the Texans and currently occupy the No. 5 seed while Houston is in eighth place behind the division-rival Colts as one of four 8–6 AFC teams.

Cleveland stormed back last week to erase a 10-point deficit against Chicago in a 20–17 win. The Browns couldn’t get anything going on the ground and Joe Flacco tossed three interceptions but a Dustin Hopkins field goal in the game’s final minute proved to be the difference after a fourth-quarter push. No defense is tougher to throw on than Cleveland’s, and it picked off two more passes on Sunday and held the Bears under 250 total yards.

The Texans eked out a 19–16 overtime win over the Titans with Case Keenum starting instead of Davis Mills, who had replaced Stroud the week before. Keenum connected with Noah Brown for a touchdown and got Ka’imi Fairbairn in range for four field goals, including a 54-yarder to win it. Devin Singletary’s 121 rushing yards helped keep drives alive for Houston, which also played inspired defense, limiting Derrick Henry to 10 yards on 20 touches.

A Browns win would give the franchise its first season with double-digit victories since 2020, the same year it last made the playoffs. A Texans win would put the team one step closer to returning to the postseason for the first time since 2019, either as a wild card or, perhaps, the division winner, but that’s a tall task with a backup quarterback against this defense. Houston was originally favored by 2.5 before Stroud’s status became clear — then the line flipped in Cleveland’s favor.

Verderame’s pick: Texans +2.5, Under 40.5 (Houston 20, Cleveland 19)
Manzano’s pick: Texans +2.5, Over 40.5 (Houston 23, Cleveland 20)
Wood’s pick: Browns -2.5, Under 40.5 (Cleveland 20, Houston 17)

4. Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings

Minnesota Vikings running back Ty Chandler — The Vikings will need another big game from Ty Chandler to keep the ball away from Detroit’s potent offense :: Kareem Elgazzar/USA TODAY Network

Detroit and Minnesota will be seeing a lot of one another over the next three weeks. The two NFC North foes face off in Week 16 and again in Week 18 and the Lions have a chance to clinch the division with a win on the road with the Vikings in a bit of a rut.

Last week was a get-right game for Detroit, which defeated Denver 42–17 behind Jared Goff’s season-high five touchdown passes. That big win followed a 28–13 loss to the Bears that saw Goff struggle, so the quick turnaround for the offense and defense was timely given what’s at stake for the Lions over the next few weeks. Head coach Dan Campbell has his team positioned to win the division for the first time since 1993, and they have a chance to do so against a Minnesota team that’s lost three of its last four games.

The Vikings lost to the Bengals 27–24 in overtime last week despite big outings from quarterback Nick Mullens (303 passing yards, two touchdowns, two interceptions) and running back Ty Chandler (25 touches for 157 total yards and a score). Minnesota, which was known for winning tight games last year, has lost three games by six combined points since the start of November with its playoff spot in jeopardy. The defense will need to slow down Goff and Detroit’s two-headed backfield of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs to give Mullens and the offense a chance.

Strangely enough, the Lions are 5–2 on the road and the Vikings are just 2–4 at home this season, so this Christmas Eve matchup at U.S. Bank Stadium actually favors the road team, Detroit.

Verderame’s pick: Lions -3.5, Under 46.5 (Detroit 24, Minnesota 15)
Manzano’s pick: Minnesota +3.5, Over 46.5 (Detroit 30, Minnesota 27)
Wood’s pick: Lions -3.5, Under 46.5 (Detroit 24, Minnesota 20)

5. Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence — Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars offense struggled last week against a tough Browns defense :: Corey Perrine/USA Today Sports

Jacksonville is in the midst of a three-game skid while Tampa Bay has won three in a row ahead of this in-state clash. The Jaguars and Buccaneers are both in first in their respective divisions, but those leads are rather tenuous at the moment with the Colts and Texans bearing down on the reigning AFC South winner and the Saints neck-and-neck with the defending NFC South champs.

Last week’s 23–7 loss to Baltimore was one of the worst of the season for Jacksonville. Turnovers were once again an issue for Trevor Lawrence and the defense had no answer for the Ravens’ running game. That shouldn’t be a huge issue against Tampa Bay, a bottom-five rushing offense, though Rachaad White has played his best football as of late. The difference in the Jaguars’ porous run defense and poor rushing offense was apparent as Travis Etienne Jr. recorded his third consecutive game with less than 50 yards on the ground Sunday. The Bucs are one of nine defenses in the NFL that allow less than 100 rushing yards per game, a milestone Jacksonville hasn’t hit since Week 11.

Tampa Bay is peaking at the right time after a 34–20 win over the Packers at Lambeau Field. Baker Mayfield threw for 381 yards and four touchdowns in the upset and Chris Godwin set season-highs in catches (10) and yards (155). The defense forced pressure on Jordan Love and contained Green Bay’s running game on the road and now return home, where the Bucs have won two in a row.

Both Tampa Bay and Jacksonville have performed well against the spread this season — the former is 9–5, tied for the best record in the league, while the latter is 8–6. The difference is the Bucs are 6–2 over their last eight games, though just 2–4 at home. On the other hand, the Jags are 4–4 over that same stretch but 4–1 against the spread on the road.

Verderame’s pick: Jaguars +1.5, Over 42.5 (Jacksonville 29, Tampa Bay 27)
Manzano’s pick: Buccaneers -1.5, Over 42.5 (Tampa Bay 33, Jacksonville 27)
Wood’s pick: Buccaneers -1.5, Over 42.5 (Tampa Bay 27, Jacksonville 23)

Final Thoughts

Verderame: The Jaguars are to the point of no return. If they lose their fourth straight by falling to Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers, they could very well miss the playoffs. However, a win and they’re in firm control of the AFC South, having the Panthers and Titans to finish the season. Provided Trevor Lawrence is healthy, give me Jacksonville to make the short trip south to Tampa and find a way.

Manzano: What Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers are doing is no fluke because of offensive coordinator Dave Canales, who has gotten the best from the former No. 1 pick and fixed Tampa Bay’s running game. Regardless if Trevor Lawrence plays for the Jaguars, I’m betting on the Buccaneers to drop another 30 points and cover the spread. I’m also expecting the Vikings to keep it close against the Lions, who have struggled against divisional opponents. Detroit lost to Green Bay and Chicago earlier this season.

Wood: What a weekend of football ahead. I like Lamar Jackson and the Ravens to keep things tight in San Francisco and Tua Tagovailoa’s Dolphins to hand the Cowboys their second straight loss in Miami. Without C.J. Stroud, I’m going with the Browns on the road, but that loss won’t hurt the Texans’ shot at the division too bad if the Buccaneers indeed beat the Jaguars at home. And in Minnesota, look for the Lions to finally clinch the division title and deal a big blow to the Vikings’ postseason hopes in the process.

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Published Dec 22, 2023

SI EDITORIAL