NFL Week 16 Recap: Dolphins Beat Cowboys on Late Field Goal, Time for Jaguars to Panic

Plus, the Lions finally won the NFC North, Amari Cooper set a Browns franchise record, the Seahawks came back again and more from three days of football.

Happy Holidays! It’s time for (more) football.

On Thursday, the Rams handled the Saints at home, improving Los Angeles’s playoff odds dramatically while significantly hampering New Orleans’s.

Then, on Saturday, the Steelers kept their hopes alive with a season sweep of the Bengals, while the Bills survived an ugly performance against the overwhelmed Chargers.

Sunday gives us an important slate of games, with seven contests featuring at least one team at or above .500. The best action was in Miami Gardens, where the Dolphins beat the Cowboys with a last-second field goal from Jason Sanders. 

This piece will be updated throughout the day …

SUNDAY

Sanders booted the game-winner as the Dolphins earned their best win of the season :: Sam Navarro/USA TODAY Sports

Dolphins 22, Cowboys 20

• What it means for Cowboys: Dallas (10–5) is going to hear all the talk about being a fraud, and somewhat rightfully so. Outside of beating a struggling Eagles team, all of its wins have come against afterthoughts in the standings. And while the defense held a powerful Miami offense to one touchdown, the Dolphins racked up 375 yards and 22 first downs. Finally, there was the opening drive which ended in a goal-line fumble, ultimately becoming the difference in the game.
• What it means for Dolphins: Miami (11–4) has now clinched a playoff spot for the second straight year. The Dolphins beat a good opponent, for the first time this season, largely thanks to the defense limiting Dallas to only 20 points. Next week, Miami can move into the AFC’s top seed with a victory in Baltimore, and would clinch the AFC East as well. However, with a loss the Dolphins could be playing for the division when the Bills visit in Week 18.

Lions 30, Vikings 24

• What it means for Lions: Detroit (11–4) will host a playoff game for the first time since 1993, snapping the second-longest active drought in the NFL. The Lions last won their division that same year, back when it was the NFC Central. While Detroit has defensive issues to address, this is a moment to celebrate. The Lions and their fans have been waiting a long time to host a playoff game. In a few weeks, that’s finally going to happen.
• What it means for Vikings: No team is good enough to win when its quarterback throws four interceptions. That’s exactly what Nick Mullens did, putting the Vikings (7–8) is what amounts to a must-win situation next Sunday night at home against the Packers. Minnesota also has to worry about the health of both tight end T.J. Hockenson and receiver Jordan Addison, who both were declared out in the second half with injuries.

Browns 36, Texans 22

• What it means for Browns: Cleveland (10–5) is almost certain to make the playoffs, despite needing to start four quarterbacks this season. The last of which, Joe Flacco, gives the Browns a chance to make a playoff run. Flacco threw for 368 yards Sunday, including a team record 265 to Amari Cooper, who also caught two touchdowns. Additionally, Kevin Stefanski needs serious consideration as Coach of the Year. All said, with the league’s top-ranked defense, Cleveland won’t be an easy out in the AFC playoffs.
• What it means for Texans: Houston (8–7) found a way to split its two games without C.J. Stroud. Yet to get into the playoffs, the Texans will need both Stroud to return from his concussion, and then to win out against the Titans and Colts. Regardless of the upcoming two weeks, Houstonians should be excited. DeMeco Ryans is a real coach. Stroud is a star quarterback. The Texans have a ton of cap space moving forward and the roster is teeming with young talent. 

DK Metcalf and the Seahawks are back from the brink with a pair of come-from-behind wins :: Christopher Hanewinckel/USA TODAY Sports

Seahawks 20, Titans 17

• What it means for Seahawks: After going to the brink of the playoff picture with four consecutive losses, the Seahawks (8–7) have saved their season with two wins in six days over the Eagles and Titans, both in comeback fashion. Geno Smith was solid, throwing for 227 yards and two touchdowns, while the defense limited Ryan Tannehill to 149 yards and six sacks. With wins over the Steelers and Cardinals over the final two weeks, Seattle would make the playoffs as a wild card.
• What it means for Titans: Tennessee (5–10) once again had too little offense beyond Derrick Henry. Henry threw for a touchdown and rushed for another score, along with 88 yards on the ground. Unfortunately for the Titans, no wide receiver had more than 25 yards. This offseason, general manager Ran Carthon needs to add youthful weapons to pair with tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo.

Buccaneers 30, Jaguars 12

• What it means for Jaguars: It’s time to panic. The Jaguars (8–7) have lost four straight and Trevor Lawrence was forced out of action in the second half with a shoulder injury. Before leaving, he committed three more turnovers. The good news? Jacksonville controls its own destiny. With wins over the Panthers and Titans in the final two weeks, Jacksonville would win the AFC South. But right now, the struggle is real.
• What it means for Buccaneers: Baker Mayfield is playing some of his best football. Tampa Bay (8–7) has won four consecutive games, and over that stretch, Mayfield has thrown for nine touchdowns against only one interception. If he continues to play at this level, the Buccaneers are a threat to win a playoff game in the wild-card round. To win the division, Tampa Bay needs one more victory, either against the Saints or Panthers.

Falcons 29, Colts 10

• What it means for Colts: Indianapolis (8–7) is in a good spot, despite the loss in Atlanta. The Colts are done with their road slate for the season, now going back to Indianapolis for tilts with the Raiders and Texans. Should Gardner Minshew & Co. win those games, the Colts will be essentially guaranteed to reach the playoffs, with a 98% chance via the New York Times model. Even with a frustrating loss Sunday, everything remains in front of Indy.
• What it means for Falcons: Atlanta (7–8) still has work ahead, but it now has a pulse in the NFC South race. The Falcons will finish the regular season with a pair of road games against the Bears and Saints. They’ll almost certainly need to win both for any chance at the postseason. That said, Taylor Heinicke is the correct call to start at quarterback, and the defense gives Atlanta a shot. 

Packers 33, Panthers 30

• What it means for Packers: Green Bay (7–8) needs to win out and get help for a playoff berth. That said, the season has been a success from the long-term view with Jordan Love, who continues to look the part of a franchise quarterback. Love threw for 219 yards and two scores against the Panthers, giving him 27 touchdown passes for the year. Green Bay’s big offseason challenge will be fixing the defense, despite having invested seven first-round picks in the unit since 2017.
• What it means for Panthers: Carolina (2–13) fought, but ultimately lost after a ferocious comeback bid. That said, Bryce Young had his best game of the year, throwing for 312 yards while helping the offense post 30 points. This offseason is going to require a deft touch considering the dearth of draft capital, but it starts with giving Young protection and a few legitimate weapons. Even if Carolina needs to slightly overpay, those two boxes must be checked in the spring. 

Patriots 26, Broncos 23

• What it means for Patriots: New England (4–11) got a most unexpected victory Sunday night, beating the Broncos to all but knock Denver out of playoff contention. Bailey Zappe played solid ball, throwing for 256 yards and two touchdowns without an interception. Of course, there is a downside to the win, with New England sacrificing some draft position. But the goal is to win games, and the Patriots did exactly that in surprising fashion.
• What it means for Broncos: Good night. The Broncos (7–8) dug themselves a hole by winning only one of their first six games this season. Despite a furious rally in the past two months, Denver is now in need of a miracle to make the playoffs. Sean Payton’s first season with the Broncos certainly represents an improvement for both the team and Russell Wilson, but the reality is Denver needs reinforcements on both sides of the ball moving forward.

Jets 30, Commanders 28

• What it means for Commanders: Washington (4–11) is going to do a full cleanse come the offseason. Ron Rivera hasn’t done the job, going 26-38-1 in his tenure with the Commanders. The looming question is whether Washington will use its high first-round pick on a quarterback or attempt to build around Sam Howell. Right now, the roster offers very little to be excited about, save for the interior defensive line and Terry McLaurin.
• What it means for Jets: New York (6–9) is still playing hard under Robert Saleh, but it was a rollercoaster. It’s fair to wonder whether retaining Saleh and general manager Joe Douglas are the right decisions after another year of horrific offensive line play and poor play-calling. With the playoffs nothing more than a pipe dream, New York is playing for pride and in some cases, jobs. 

Bears 27, Cardinals 16

• What it means for Cardinals: Arizona (3–12) is playing out the string before a very intriguing winter. The Cardinals could move off Kyler Murray with a post–June 1 trade, opening up future cap space. Arizona is likely going to have a top-five pick along with the Texans’ first-rounder. Will general manager Monti Ossenfort completely overhaul the franchise, or will he build around Murray, believing he’s the long-term answer?
• What it means for Bears: Chicago (6–9) has a really interesting decision after the season ends, and not on Justin Fields. After winning only three games in his first year as coach, Matt Eberflus has now doubled that total in 2023 with two contests remaining. With Chicago potentially getting the No. 1 pick in the upcoming draft via the Panthers, will Eberflus get another year, or will ownership decide to make a change?

SATURDAY

Rudolph made his first start of the season, replacing Mitchell Trubisky in relief of Kenny Pickett :: Kareem Elgazzar/The Enquirer/USA TODAY Network

Steelers 34, Bengals 11

• What it means for Bengals: Jake Browning and the Bengals (8–7) have been a fun story the past few weeks, but it likely came to an end on Saturday afternoon. Browning threw three interceptions, the defense continued to be a sieve and Cincinnati now needs to go into Arrowhead Stadium and beat the Chiefs in Week 17 for any postseason life. The Bengals have fought through adversity all year, but couldn’t handle their divisional slate, going 0–5 in the AFC North to this point.
• What it means for Steelers: Mason Rudolph must be the starting quarterback for the Steelers (8–7) next week, regardless of Kenny Pickett’s health. Rudolph wasn’t great, but he stretched the field repeatedly with George Pickens, who caught four passes for 195 yards and two long touchdowns. If Pittsburgh has any playoff hopes, it’ll have to go on the road and beat both the Seahawks and Ravens. That won’t happen with Pickett.

Bills 24, Chargers 22

• What it means for Bills: This time of year, winning is what matters above all. It was ugly for the Bills (9–6), who had three turnovers and needed a game-winning field goal in the final minute. But ultimately, Buffalo now needs only to win its final two games and it’ll make the playoffs, whether as a wild card team or the AFC East champion. That said, if the Bills play sloppy football like this come Week 18 against the Dolphins, they’ll likely be going home.
• What it means for Chargers: Giff Smith should be proud. The Chargers (5–10) were severely undermanned Saturday night against a Buffalo team playing for its playoff life, and almost pulled off an incredible upset. Los Angeles played hard for Smith, though, showing emotion and effort that was absent in its 63–21 loss to the Raiders nine days earlier.

THURSDAY

Rams 30, Saints 22

• What it means for Saints: New Orleans (7–8) has struggled all year against decent teams. Of their seven wins, the Saints have only beaten one respectable team in the Colts. Otherwise? The Giants, Panthers (twice), Patriots, Titans and Bears. General manager Mickey Loomis brought in Derek Carr to raise both New Orleans’s floor and ceiling. He’s done neither, despite playing well against the Rams with three touchdowns and 319 yards. The Saints are still alive, but they must beat the Buccaneers and Falcons.
• What it means for Rams: Los Angeles (8–7) has done a tremendous job rebounding from a 3–6 start. The Rams aren’t a complete team, but they have superstars in Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua and Aaron Donald. They also have a Super Bowl–winning coach in Sean McVay. The Rams profile as a likely sixth seed and could be a very, very tough out for the Lions or, should they beat Detroit, their division rival in the 49ers in the divisional round.