NFL Week 17 MVP Stock Watch: Josh Allen’s Turnovers Weaken His Case

The Bills’ quarterback is the ultimate highlight reel, but he also has suffered too many lowlights to win the league’s most prestigious award.

Perspective is a wonderful thing. In this year’s NFL MVP conversation, it’s sorely needed.

In some corners, Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen is being talked about as a top candidate for the league’s most prestigious individual award. While there is merit in some respects, the negatives for Allen’s candidacy are hard to ignore.

The case for? Allen leads the NFL with 40 total touchdowns. The Bills are also ranked fourth offensively, and Buffalo has won three consecutive games to get back into playoff conversation.

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Without question, Allen has been the driving force in Buffalo’s resurgence.

However, Allen leads the NFL with 15 interceptions. Buffalo is also 9–6, good for the AFC’s sixth seed despite having star receiver Stefon Diggs, an excellent back in James Cook and an up-and-coming tight end in Dalton Kincaid.

Additionally, the Bills have lost a host of games to bad-to-middling teams, including the New England Patriots, New York Jets and Denver Broncos, with Allen making devastating errors in those defeats.

The ultimate problem? We live in a highlight culture. Allen is the ultimate highlight, but he’s also suffered too many lowlights to be this year’s MVP. 

Rising

Lamar Jackson, QB, Ravens

Jackson is the MVP after his dominant performance against the 49ers on Monday night :: Cary Edmondson/USA TODAY Sports

Last week: Rising

Right now Jackson is the MVP, and it’s hard to make an argument otherwise.

On Monday night, he squared off with the San Francisco 49ers in their backyard and dominated the action, throwing for 252 yards and two touchdowns while rushing for another 45 yards.

Jackson’s passing numbers aren’t going to compare with other elite quarterbacks, but nobody has more of an impact on the game. His dual-threat ability is unmatched, and the Baltimore Ravens are the AFC’s best team through 16 weeks.

At this juncture, anybody other than Jackson being named MVP would be an upset.

Holding steady

Josh Allen, QB, Bills

Allen rushed for a pair of touchdowns and passed for another in a big win over the Chargers :: Kirby Lee/USA TODAY Sports

Last week: Rising

Allen’s performance against the Los Angeles Chargers was excellent and lacking at the same time.

The Bills got three touchdowns from Allen, including two on the ground. They also saw Allen throw for 237 yards on a robust 11.3 yards per attempt. However, he also tossed an interception, helping an injury-riddled, coachless Chargers team almost pull off one of the biggest upsets of the year.

All told, Allen played a good game. Enough to jump the MVP front-runners? Tough to make that argument.

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Christian McCaffrey, RB, 49ers

Last week: Rising

It’s hard to say McCaffrey’s stock deserves to fall after he posted another 100-yard game while clearly being on his way to the league’s rushing title.

However, it’s also impossible to say his stock is rising after the 49ers were tattooed at home on national television by a Ravens team led by the likely MVP.

For McCaffrey, the more likely scenario is he’ll win Offensive Player of the Year honors for the second time in his career, having also done so during his time with the Carolina Panthers. 

Falling

Brock Purdy, QB, 49ers

Purdy's four interceptions against the Ravens likely ended his bid to win the MVP.  :: Cary Edmondson/USA TODAY Sports

Last week: Rising

That was fun while it lasted.

If the 49ers and Purdy had put on a show against the Ravens on Christmas evening, the 2022 seventh-round pick would have had a strong case as MVP in a year when no consensus choice has emerged.

Then the game happened, and Purdy threw four interceptions in a lopsided defeat, leaving far more questions about his effectiveness when everything doesn’t go perfectly.

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Dak Prescott, QB, Cowboys

Last week: Falling

Prescott wasn’t bad against the Miami Dolphins in the Dallas Cowboys’ 22–20 last-second loss, but his MVP fortunes are fading fast.

The Cowboys (10–5) are looking at a wild-card spot and a litany of headlines calling them frauds. And while the MVP award shouldn’t be based on narratives and recency bias, it most certainly is.

Prescott threw for 253 yards and two touchdowns against Miami, leading the Cowboys to a would-be game-winning drive in the fourth quarter, only to lose. Ultimately, it wasn’t enough.

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Tyreek Hill, WR, Dolphins

Last week: Falling

For any other receiver, having nine catches for 99 yards would be a great day. For Hill, it’s a forgettable afternoon.

After missing last week with an ankle sprain, Hill returned and had a productive game to help the Dolphins beat the Cowboys. However, he’s 260 yards from the 2,000-yard barrier, and, with two games remaining, Hill would need to have an epic finish to the season.