2024 NFL Playoff Picture, Week 10: Chiefs, Bills Headed for Key AFC Showdown

Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen control their destinies in the conference. Plus, the Eagles and Commanders face off Thursday night for the NFC East lead.

Mahomes owns a 4-3 record over Allen, including the playoffs. / Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

We’re starting to see the NFL playoff picture come into focus with Week 10 almost in the books.

On the AFC side, there are six teams all but certain of getting into the postseason. The Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, Houston Texans, Pittsburgh Steelers, Baltimore Ravens and Los Angeles Chargers would need to collapse to stay home in January, even when factoring in remaining schedules.

In the NFC, the Philadelphia Eagles, Detroit Lions, Washington Commanders, Atlanta Falcons and Minnesota Vikings are in great shape, with the NFC West and a wild-card spot still up for grabs. 

But with seven weeks remaining, the league is starting to crystallize, just as it always does. 

Let’s look at the up-to-the-minute playoff picture for both conferences. 

Additionally, all playoff probabilities are courtesy of The Athletic’s model.

AFC: WHO'S IN

No. 1: Kansas City Chiefs

Record: 9–0, first place, AFC West

Remaining opponents over .500: 4

Playoff probability: >99%

It’s rarely easy, but the Chiefs continue to roll. Dating back to last year, Kansas City has won 15 consecutive games, and got the victory Sunday with a last-second blocked field goal. Up next? The Bills in Buffalo.

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No. 2: Buffalo Bills

Record: 8–2, first place, AFC East

Remaining opponents over .500: 3

Playoff probability: >99%

Buffalo handled business against the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday, intercepting Joe Flacco three times. The Bills are going to coast to the AFC East title. Now, with the Chiefs coming to town, they can close the gap for the AFC’s top seed.

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No. 3: Pittsburgh Steelers

Record: 7–2, first place, AFC North

Remaining opponents over .500: 4

Playoff probability: 87%

Pittsburgh found a way to beat the Commanders in Washington, keeping the Steelers in first place in the AFC North. Russell Wilson only completed half of his 28 attempts, but threw three touchdowns. 

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No. 4: Houston Texans

Record: 6–4, first place, AFC South

Remaining opponents over .500: 2

Playoff probability: 95%

The Texans took the ball away from Jared Goff five times. And yet two C.J. Stroud interceptions and the inability to run the ball cost Houston against the Lions on Sunday night.

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No. 5: Baltimore Ravens

Record: 7–3, second place, AFC North

Remaining opponents over .500: 5

Playoff probability: 98%

By beating the Cincinnati Bengals on Thursday night, Baltimore earned a season sweep of their division rivals and essentially turned the AFC North into a two-horse race with the Ravens and Steelers.

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No. 6: Los Angeles Chargers

Record: 6–3, second place, AFC West

Remaining opponents over .500: 3

Playoff probability: 91%

Los Angeles took care of business, easily handling the Tennessee Titans. The Bengals come to town next, with the Chargers having a chance to put themselves in a phenomenal position with a win over Cincinnati.

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No. 7: Denver Broncos

Record: 5–5, third place, AFC West

Remaining opponents over .500: 3

Playoff probability: 27%

It’s tough to lose in a tougher fashion than the Broncos fell to the Chiefs. Denver played near-perfect football but lost on a blocked 35-yard field goal as time expired.

IN THE HUNT

Indianapolis Colts (4–6): Joe Flacco, Anthony Richardson … it doesn’t matter. The Colts can’t stop turning the ball over, and the defense can’t stop anybody from scoring. It’s a bad trend with the Jets and Lions on deck.

Cincinnati Bengals (4–6): Cincinnati has lost two heartbreakers to the Ravens. Now, the Bengals must regroup with a Sunday night tilt with the Chargers at SoFi Stadium on deck.

New England Patriots (3–7): The Patriots beat the Bears in Chicago on the back of nine sacks. New England isn’t a playoff threat, but it’s playing hard despite a lackluster record.

NFC: WHO’S IN

Campbell's Lions found a win to win Sunday night despite trailing the Texans 23-7 at halftime. / Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

No. 1: Detroit Lions

Record: 8–1, first place, NFC North

Remaining opponents over .500: 4

Playoff probability: 99%

The Lions visited the Texans on Sunday night, and despite Jared Goff throwing five interceptions, Detroit was able to win 26–23 on a last-second field goal to stay atop the NFC standings.

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No. 2: Philadelphia Eagles

Record: 7–2, first place, NFC East

Remaining opponents over .500: 3

Playoff probability: 97% 

Philadelphia has been scrutinized all year with coach Nick Sirianni’s decisions drawing considerable ire, but the Eagles keep rolling. On Thursday night, they have a chance to go ahead by 1.5 games in the NFC East with the Commanders on deck in Landover.

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No. 3: Atlanta Falcons

Record: 6–4, first place, NFC South

Remaining opponents over .500: 3

Playoff probability: 93%

Sunday was a brutal loss for the Falcons, who allowed the New Orleans Saints to snap their seven-game losing streak. Atlanta gained over 400 yards but lost with special teams miscues and chunk plays costing it dearly.

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No. 4: Arizona Cardinals

Record: 6–4, first place, NFC West

Remaining opponents over .500: 2

Playoff probability: 53%

The Cardinals have won four straight, keeping them in the catbird seat for the NFC West. Arizona hasn’t allowed a touchdown in three of those contests, showcasing a defense nobody thought possible to start the year.

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No. 5: Minnesota Vikings

Record: 7–2, second place, NFC North

Remaining opponents over .500: 4

Playoff probability: 89%

Nobody is going to remember Minnesota’s win over the Jacksonville Jaguars with fondness, but the Vikings won by holding Mac Jones to seven points while intercepting him twice. Minnesota remains firmly in the race for the NFC North crown.

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No. 6: Washington Commanders

Record: 7–3, second place, NFC East

Remaining opponents over .500: 3

Playoff probability: 89%

Washington couldn’t finish off the Steelers despite a double-digit lead in the second half. It all sets up a massive game Thursday night with the Eagles visiting the nation’s capital with first place in the NFC East on the line.

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No. 7: Green Bay Packers

Record: 6–3, third place, NFC North

Remaining opponents over .500: 3

Playoff probability: 66%

The Packers are on a bye week after losing to the Lions last weekend. In Week 11, Green Bay will visit the Chicago Bears in an all-important NFC North matchup.

IN THE HUNT

San Francisco 49ers (5–4): By beating the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the 49ers are within a game of a wild-card spot and only remain a half-game behind the Cardinals for the division lead.

Los Angeles Rams (4–4): The Rams are playing host on Monday night to the Miami Dolphins. With a win, they’ll be 5–4 and over .500 for the first time this season.

Chicago Bears (4–5): Chicago is fading quickly. After losing on a Hail Mary pass to Washington, the Bears were then blown out by the Cardinals and Patriots.