2024 NFL Playoff Picture, Week 12: Chiefs, Lions Hold Top Seeds

Kansas City needed heroics from Patrick Mahomes to remain the top seed in the AFC, while Detroit’s defense continued to show its dominance and why the Lions could be the best team in football.

Jahmyr Gibbs had another outstanding game rushing for 90 yards and two touchdowns in Detroit's win over Indianapolis on Sunday. / Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Kansas CIty Chiefs and Detroit Lions are very different, and yet they’re the same.

Kansas City has continuously had to hold onto leads at the end of games, while Detroit has rolled one team after the next. And, yet, both are 10–1 and the No. 1 seed in their respective conferences.

Meanwhile, there was a change in the NFC playoff picture, with the Seattle Seahawks jumping into the No. 3 seed after beating the Arizona Cardinals, who went from that spot all the way out of the playoff picture with a single loss. 

Here’s how everything looks in both conferences, updated up to the second.

Additionally, all playoff probabilities are courtesy of The Athletic’s model.

AFC: WHO’S IN

No. 1: Kansas City Chiefs

Record: 10–1, first place, AFC West

Remaining opponents over .500: 4

Playoff probability: 99%

Kansas City was able to ward off the pesky Carolina Panthers on Sunday, giving it an AFC-best 10 wins. A short week is ahead for the Chiefs, who host the Las Vegas Raiders on Black Friday.

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No. 2: Buffalo Bills

Record: 9–2, first place, AFC East

Remaining opponents over .500: 1

Playoff probability: 99%

The Bills had the week off. A big three-game stretch looms with the San Francisco 49ers, Los Angeles Rams and Detroit Lions coming up in Orchard Park.

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No. 3: Pittsburgh Steelers

Record: 8–3, first place, AFC North

Remaining opponents over .500: 3

Playoff probability: 88%

After getting into the first-seed conversation, the Steelers lost in the snow to the Cleveland Browns. Next up, the Cincinnati Bengals, who are clinging to life at 4–7.

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No. 4: Houston Texans

Record: 7–5, first place, AFC South

Remaining opponents over .500: 2

Playoff probability: 94%

After winning convincingly in Dallas on Monday night, Houston was upset by the Tennessee Titans on Sunday. C.J. Stroud & Co. hold a two-game lead in the AFC South, but appear to be headed for the fourth seed.

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No. 5: Los Angeles Chargers

Record: 7–3, second place, AFC West

Remaining opponents over .500: 4

Playoff probability: 91%

Los Angeles will try to stay in this spot with a victory Monday night over the Baltimore Ravens, while also opening a two-game lead in the loss column with a tiebreaker in hand.

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No. 6: Baltimore Ravens

Record: 7–4, second place, AFC North

Remaining opponents over .500: 4

Playoff probability: 95%

The Ravens have a chance to close the gap in the AFC North while also jumping the Chargers with a win at SoFi Stadium on Monday night.

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Bo Nix passed for 273 yards and two touchdowns in Denver's win over Las Vegas on Sunday. / Stephen R. Sylvanie-Imagn Images

No. 7: Denver Broncos

Record: 7–5, third place, AFC West

Remaining opponents over .500: 2

Playoff probability: 60%

Denver took care of the Raiders in Las Vegas, giving it a second straight win before coming home to host the Browns on Monday night. The Broncos still have the Indianapolis Colts and Cincinnati Bengals on their schedule, easily their biggest games remaining. 

IN THE HUNT

Miami Dolphins (5–6): The Dolphins pummeled the New England Patriots on Sunday behind Tua Tagovailoa’s four touchdown passes. Miami will face the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field on Thanksgiving Day.

Indianapolis Colts (5–7): Anthony Richardson struggled in a loss to the Detroit Lions. Despite being two games under .500, Indianapolis has a real shot at the playoffs with a soft schedule the rest of the way.

Cincinnati Bengals (4–7): Cincinnati likely needs to win out. That won’t be easy with two games remaining against the Steelers, starting with this weekend.

NFC: WHO’S IN

No. 1: Detroit Lions

Record: 10–1, first place, NFC North

Remaining opponents over .500: 3

Playoff probability: 99%

The Lions appear to be the best team in football. Detroit took on a plucky Colts team and handled them with ease, allowing only six points. Still, there’s no breathing room with Detroit only a game up in the NFC North. 

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No. 2: Philadelphia Eagles

Record: 9–2, first place, NFC East

Remaining opponents over .500: 3

Playoff probability: 99% 

The Eagles visited the Rams on Sunday night and won going away with the help of another Saquon Barkley masterpiece. Combined with Washington’s loss to Dallas, the NFC East feels all but wrapped up.

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No. 3: Seattle Seahawks

Record: 6–5, first place, NFC West

Remaining opponents over .500: 3

Playoff probability: 21%

Seattle lost five of six before earning two huge divisional victories over the 49ers and Arizona Cardinals the past two weeks. With those wins, the Seahawks moved to the third seed, holding a tiebreaker over the Atlanta Falcons for the spot.

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No. 4: Atlanta Falcons

Remaining opponents over .500: 3

Playoff probability: 83%

Atlanta had its bye week, and comes out of the break facing the Chargers and Minnesota Vikings the next two weeks.

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Sam Darnold threw for 330 yards and two touchdowns in Minnesota's overtime win over Chicago on Sunday. / Mike Dinovo-Imagn Images

No. 5: Minnesota Vikings

Record: 9–2, second place, NFC North

Remaining opponents over .500: 5

Playoff probability: 98%

The Vikings continue to be only one game back of the Lions in the NFC North, while remaining the top team in the NFC wild-card picture after a 30–27 overtime win over the Chicago Bears.

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No. 6: Green Bay Packers

Record: 8–3, third place, NFC North

Remaining opponents over .500: 3

Playoff probability: 93%

Green Bay handled the injury-riddled San Francisco 49ers with ease, continuing to make a playoff push. The Packers now have a short week with Miami coming to Green Bay on Thursday.

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No. 7: Washington Commanders

Record: 7–5, second place, NFC East

Remaining opponents over .500: 2

Playoff probability: 72%

Freefall in Washington? The Commanders have now lost three consecutive games, with a defeat to the listless Dallas Cowboys being the worst of them all.

IN THE HUNT

Arizona Cardinals (6–5): Arizona went to Seattle and managed only six points. The Cardinals will try to rebound this upcoming weekend against the Vikings in Minnesota.

Los Angeles Rams (5–6): The Rams lost to the Eagles on Sunday night, dropping them a game back of the Seahawks in the NFC West.

San Francisco 49ers (5–6): This might be the end for San Francisco. The Niners are ravaged by injuries to Brandon Aiyuk, Nick Bosa, Brock Purdy and Trent Williams. Next up, Buffalo.