2024 NFL Playoff Picture, Week 15: Home-Field Advantage Up for Grabs In NFC

With Buffalo’s win over Detroit, Philadelphia pulls even with the Lions. In the AFC, Denver needs one more win to clinch its first postseason berth since 2015.

Wilson and Hurts both have Pittsburgh and Philadelphia in solid playoff positions. / Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

Things are tightening up in the NFC.

On Sunday, the Philadelphia Eagles beat the Pittsburgh Steelers with Jalen Hurts throwing for almost 300 yards in a 27–13 victory. The duo of DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown each eclipsed 100 yards, helping Philadelphia get to 12–2 and tie the Detroit Lions for the best record in the NFC.

As for Detroit, the Lions lost their first game in 12 contests, falling 48–42 to the Buffalo Bills. Dan Campbell’s team is still in great position, holding the tiebreaker over Philadelphia due to conference record. 

Meanwhile, the AFC saw the Denver Broncos get a huge win over the Indianapolis Colts. With one more victory, Denver will clinch its first playoff berth since 2015. 

Let’s look at both conferences below, starting with the AFC.

Additionally, all playoff probabilities are courtesy of The Athletic’s model.

AFC: WHO’S IN

No. 1: Kansas City Chiefs

Record: 13–1, first place, AFC West

Remaining opponents over .500: 3

Playoff probability: 100%

Kansas City beat the Cleveland Browns on Sunday, but the Chiefs have two games in the next 10 days, and might be without Patrick Mahomes after he exited early with an ankle injury.

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No. 2: Buffalo Bills

Record: 11–3, first place, AFC East

Remaining opponents over .500: 0

Playoff probability: 100%

Josh Allen accounted for another four touchdowns as the Bills handled the Detroit Lions in a 48–42 affair. The Bills remain two games behind the Chiefs in the race for home-field advantage.

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No. 3: Pittsburgh Steelers

Record: 10–4, first place, AFC North

Remaining opponents over .500: 2

Playoff probability: 100%

After losing to the Philadelphia Eagles, Pittsburgh is still a game ahead of the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC North, but they’ll meet each other on Saturday.

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No. 4: Houston Texans

Record: 9–5, first place, AFC South

Remaining opponents over .500: 2

Playoff probability: 100%

Houston came out of its bye week and took down the Miami Dolphins to clinch the AFC South, giving it a second straight division title.

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No. 5: Baltimore Ravens

Record: 9–5, second place, AFC North

Remaining opponents over .500: 2

Playoff probability: 98%

Baltimore rolled past the New York Giants as Lamar Jackson threw for five touchdowns. Next, a huge tilt with the Steelers in Charm City.

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No. 6: Denver Broncos

Record: 9–5, third place, AFC West

Remaining opponents over .500: 2

Playoff probability: 91%

Denver can clinch a playoff berth with a win in any of its final three games. The Broncos, in order, face the Los Angeles Chargers, Cincinnati Bengals and Chiefs.

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No. 7: Los Angeles Chargers

Record: 8–6, second place, AFC West

Remaining opponents over .500: 1

Playoff probability: 83%

After being blown out by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Chargers now aim to regroup before hosting the Broncos on Thursday night.

IN THE HUNT

Indianapolis Colts (6–8): After losing to the Broncos due in large part to four turnovers, the Colts need to win out and essentially get a miracle.

Miami Dolphins (6–8): The Dolphins fell to the Texans, and like the Colts, now must win out and get a ton of help.

Cincinnati Bengals (6–8): Cincinnati beat the Tennessee Titans, and now have to win out and hope the Broncos lose out, while the Dolphins also lose at least one game.

NFC: WHO’S IN

No. 1: Detroit Lions

Record: 12–2, first place, NFC North

Remaining opponents over .500: 1

Playoff probability: 100%

Despite an 11-game winning streak, the Lions find themselves in trouble after losing to the Bills. Detroit is tied for the best record in the NFC and has the tiebreaker over the Eagles, but is only a half-game up on the Minnesota Vikings in the NFC North.

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No. 2: Philadelphia Eagles

Record: 12–2, first place, NFC East

Remaining opponents over .500: 1

Playoff probability: 100% 

Philadelphia took care of the Steelers and with an easy schedule ahead, has a real chance to overtake the Lions for the NFC’s top seed over the final three weeks.

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No. 3: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Record: 8–6, first place, NFC South

Remaining opponents over .500: 0

Playoff probability: 86%

Tampa Bay has now won four straight and has a 1.5-game lead on the Atlanta Falcons for the NFC South lead. Atlanta plays on Monday night at Las Vegas.

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No. 4: Los Angeles Rams

Record: 8–6, first place, NFC West

Remaining opponents over .500: 1

Playoff probability: 55%

The Rams are suddenly in a good position to win the NFC West after taking down the San Francisco 49ers on Thursday night.

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No. 5: Minnesota Vikings

Record: 11–2, second place, NFC North

Remaining opponents over .500: 3

Playoff probability: 100%

Minnesota plays the Chicago Bears on Monday night. With a victory, the Vikings will pull into a first-place tie with the Lions for the NFC North lead. 

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No. 6: Green Bay Packers

Record: 9–4, third place, NFC North

Remaining opponents over .500: 1

Playoff probability: 99%

The Packers are visiting the Seahawks on Sunday night. This space will be updated to reflect the outcome after the game.

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No. 7: Washington Commanders

Record: 9–5, second place, NFC East

Remaining opponents over .500: 1

Playoff probability: 87%

Washington earned a tight win over the New Orleans Saints, putting it in tremendous position to make the postseason as a wild-card team.

IN THE HUNT

Seattle Seahawks (8–6): Seattle still holds destiny in its hands. If the Seahawks win out, they’ll be the NFC West champions..

Arizona Cardinals (7–7): Arizona needs an inside straight to get into the postseason, but it starts with winning out and hoping either Washington or Seattle falls apart.

Atlanta Falcons (6–7): The Falcons are taking on the Las Vegas Raiders at Allegiant Stadium on Monday night.