2024 NFL Playoff Picture, Week 16: Ravens Clinch Spot, Eagles Falter

With just two weeks to go, the AFC postseason field is coming into focus, while the fight for the No. 1 seed in the NFC is heating up. Plus, does anybody want to win the NFC South?

Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels runs the ball against the Philadelphia Eagles during the third quarter at Northwest Stadium. / Peter Casey-Imagn Images

The NFL regular season is almost down to the final two weeks. 

Looking across the playoff landscape, there are five spots already locked up in the AFC, including three division crowns. Then there’s the NFC where three teams are in, and the Green Bay Packers can make it a fourth with a win on Monday Night Football.

As the season is drawing to a close, let’s take a look at where the AFC and NFC playoff pictures sit, along with information on what must happen down the stretch for teams to clinch.

Additionally, all playoff probabilities are courtesy of The Athletic’s model.

AFC: WHO’S IN

No. 1: Kansas City Chiefs

Record: 14–1, first place, AFC West

Remaining opponents over .500: 2

Playoff probability: 100%

By beating the Houston Texans on Saturday, the Chiefs moved to within one win or a loss by the Buffalo Bills of clinching the AFC’s top seed for the fourth time in Patrick Mahomes’s career.

No. 2: Buffalo Bills

Record: 12–3, first place, AFC East

Remaining opponents over .500: 0

Playoff probability: 100%

Buffalo held on to beat the New England Patriots, keeping hope alive for the top seed. However, in the worst-case scenario, the Bills have clinched at least the second seed.

No. 3: Pittsburgh Steelers

Record: 10–5, first place, AFC North

Remaining opponents over .500: 1

Playoff probability: 100%

By virtue of a conference-record tiebreaker, the Steelers are still ahead of the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC North race despite losing to them Saturday. However, the Steelers now play the Chiefs while Baltimore visits Houston on Christmas.

No. 4: Houston Texans

Record: 9–6, first place, AFC South

Remaining opponents over .500: 1

Playoff probability: 100%

Houston has clinched the AFC South title and can’t move up any higher than the third seed.

No. 5: Baltimore Ravens

Record: 10–5, second place, AFC North

Remaining opponents over .500: 1

Playoff probability: 100%

The Ravens have an opportunity to move into the third seed next week should they beat the Texans, and the Steelers lose at home on Christmas to the Chiefs.

No. 6: Los Angeles Chargers

Record: 9–6, second place, AFC West

Remaining opponents over .500: 0

Playoff probability: 94%

If the Chargers beat the Patriots and Las Vegas Raiders over the final two weeks, they will be either the fifth or sixth seed. 

No. 7: Denver Broncos

Record: 9–6, third place, AFC West

Remaining opponents over .500: 1

Playoff probability: 75%

Denver needs to win one of its final two games to ensure making the playoffs. The Broncos play on Saturday on the road against the Cincinnati Bengals before coming home to host the Chiefs in Week 18.

IN THE HUNT

Indianapolis Colts (7–8): The Colts need to win out and get help, but they finish the season with games against the New York Giants and Jacksonville Jaguars.

Miami Dolphins (7–8): Miami also needs to win out and get favorable outcomes elsewhere. The Dolphins have road games against the Cleveland Browns and New York Jets.

Cincinnati Bengals (7–8): Cincinnati must win out against the Broncos and Steelers, and then get at least one additional loss from the Broncos, Dolphins and Colts.

NFC: WHO’S IN

No. 1: Detroit Lions

Record: 13–2, first place, NFC North

Remaining opponents over .500: 1

Playoff probability: 100%

The Lions handled the Chicago Bears with ease after losing to the Bills last weekend. Next up, it’s the San Francisco 49ers on Monday night at Levi’s Stadium before hosting the Minnesota Vikings in Week 18.

No. 2: Philadelphia Eagles

Record: 12–3, first place, NFC East

Remaining opponents over .500: 0

Playoff probability: 100% 

Philadelphia lost to the Washington Commanders and saw quarterback Jalen Hurts get concussed, putting the next few weeks potentially in jeopardy. Still, one more win or  loss by Washington, and the Eagles win the NFC East.

Matthew Stafford and the Rams scored 13 unanswered points in the fourth quarter during Sunday's 19–9 win over the Jets. / Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

No. 3: Los Angeles Rams

Record: 9–6, first place, NFC West

Remaining opponents over .500: 1

Playoff probability: 83%

Los Angeles has put itself in a great position by beating the Jets. The Rams are a game ahead in the NFC West with the Arizona Cardinals next on a Saturday night at SoFi Stadium. 

No. 4: Atlanta Falcons

Record: 8–7, first place, NFC South

Remaining opponents over .500: 1

Playoff probability: 48%

Atlanta now controls its own destiny. If the Falcons can win their final two games, starting with Washington on Sunday night, they will win the NFC South and host at least one playoff game. 

No. 5: Minnesota Vikings

Record: 13–2, second place, NFC North

Remaining opponents over .500: 2

Playoff probability: 100%

Minnesota continued to move toward the No. 1 seed in the NFC, despite currently being a wild-card team. With two more wins, albeit against the Green Bay Packers and Lions, the Vikings will earn home-field advantage in the NFC playoffs. 

No. 6: Green Bay Packers

Record: 10–4, third place, NFC North

Remaining opponents over .500: 1

Playoff probability: 99%

Green Bay plays on Monday night at home against the New Orleans Saints. If the Packers win, they remain the No. 6 seed. With a loss, they would drop behind Washington. 

No. 7: Washington Commanders

Record: 10–5, second place, NFC East

Remaining opponents over .500: 1

Playoff probability: 94%

By beating the Eagles, Washington has reduced its magic number to one. If the Commanders win either of their final two games, starting with next Sunday night at home against the Atlanta Falcons, they are in the playoffs. 

IN THE HUNT

Seattle Seahawks (8–7): Seattle losing at home to the Vikings doesn’t end its postseason dream, but now the Seahawks must win out and get help.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8–7): The Buccaneers were upset by the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday night. To win the division, Tampa Bay needs to win at least one more game than the Falcons over the final two weeks. 

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