2024 NFL Season Preview: 59 People Who Will Impact Who Wins Super Bowl LIX

We’ll see 32 teams play 272 regular season games before the field narrows to 14 for the playoffs. But who gets to New Orleans? Here’s who we think will determine who wins the Lombardi Trophy.

We ranked 59 people who will have the biggest impact on who ends up with the Lombardi Trophy a little over five months from now. / Sam Greene/The Enquirer-USA TODAY NETWORK (Burrow); Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports (Nacua); Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports (Cousins); Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports (Mahomes); Jenna Watson/USA TODAY NETWORK (Richardson); Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports (Rodgers); Illustration by Bryce Wood

On Feb. 9, 2025, Super Bowl LIX will be held at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans. 

Before then, we’ll see 32 teams play 272 regular season games before the field narrows to 14 survivors. Then, 12 postseason contests will unfold, with two teams left standing for Super Sunday on Feb. 9, 2025.

But who gets there? What will happen between now and then to determine the participants?

With the Super Bowls’ 59th edition awaiting, we ranked 59 people who will have the biggest impact on who ends up with the Lombardi Trophy a little over five months from now.

59. DeMarcus Walker, DE, Chicago Bears

My take: If the Bears are going to be a January threat, someone other than Montez Sweat needs to get to the quarterback. Walker is the best bet, coming off 10.5 sacks over the past two years.

OnSI’s take: They’ll only need Walker at his career high of  seven sacks off the edge. The key is inside pressure. Gervon Dexter at 3-technique, hurrying the QB and stopping the run, is a necessity. —Gene Chamberlain, Bears On SI

58. Ran Carthon, GM, Tennessee Titans

Carthon made major moves this offseason, signing receiver Calvin Ridley, trading for corner L’Jarius Sneed and hiring coach Brian Callahan. If the Titans are a surprise, it’s because Carthon went big this winter.

OnSI’s take: Why can’t the Titans surprise us this season? If Will Levis works out, and the additions the team made this offseason are everything they could be, this team has the pieces to succeed. And without Carthon, that doesn’t happen. An aggressive offseason in Tennessee not only boosts their own odds, but makes the AFC South a lot bigger challenge for the other three teams. —Noah Strackbein, Titans On SI

57. Josh Downs, WR, Indianapolis Colts

Downs had 68 catches as a rookie playing without Richardson. / Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports

The Colts have playoff aspirations, and they’ll need Downs to continue his ascent. As a rookie, the North Carolina product caught 68 passes for 771 yards as the second option to Michael Pittman Jr.

OnSI’s take: Downs is recovering from a high ankle sprain, which puts his return somewhere near the first couple of weeks of the regular season, so the Colts will need to improvise in Downs’s absence. That will be difficult to do, however, as his chemistry with Anthony Richardson truly appears to be growing into something special on the practice field. Downs is sure-handed and slippery, but his football IQ is off the charts, which will make him dangerous upon his return to the field. —Jake Arthur, Colts On SI

56. Anthony Weaver, DC, Miami Dolphins

Weaver is Miami’s third defensive coordinator in as many years. The Dolphins have one of the league’s most talented offenses, but Weaver must fix the defense for Miami to be a true contender.

OnSI’s take: The arrival of Weaver has been met with a lot of excitement, in part because of his reputation and the fact that he came over from the Baltimore Ravens and also because he relates better to his players than old-school Vic Fangio did. But the reality is nobody knows how well the Dolphins defense will perform, though there are some high-end players on the unit, including Jalen Ramsey, Zach Sieler, Calais Campbell and Jevon Holland. —Alain Poupart, Dolphins On SI

55. Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Philadelphia Eagles

Philadelphia’s secondary was a mess in 2023, and general manager Howie Roseman addressed it aggressively with Mitchell and fellow rookie Cooper DeJean at corner. Can the duo, led by Mitchell, be immediate positives?

OnSI’s take: Vic Fangio likes the counterintuitive notion of throwing a lot at his players early before scaling back. The veteran DC has thrown the kitchen sink at Mitchell and the 22nd pick has not looked overwhelmed with reps at both outside cornerback spots, as well as the nickel and dime snaps inside. He will likely start inside while DeJean ramps up from a pre-camp hamstring injury before moving to his permanent role opposite Darius Slay outside the numbers. He has already shown the presence of a top-tier CB against star receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith in practice. —John McMullen, Eagles On SI 

54. Kirk Cousins, QB, Atlanta Falcons

Cousins is being tasked with leading an offense good enough to both win the NFC South and overcome what appears to be a leaky defense. All this while being 36 years old, learning a new system and coming off a torn Achilles.

OnSI’s take: Cousins appears to be healthy, and the returns on the Cousins–Kyle Pitts relationship have been positive throughout the offseason. The Falcons could and should have a top-10 offense with the amount of resources poured into that side of the ball. They’ll need to score points to overcome the lack of investment on the other side. —Scott Kennedy, Falcons On SI

53. Arik Armstead, DT, Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars have first-rate edge rushers in Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker, but the signing of Armstead gives them an upgraded inside presence. If Armstead can continue being productive, Jacksonville will get a real boost.

OnSI’s take: Armstead has missed the entirety of training camp up to this point due to being on the active/PUP list, but the Jaguars see him as one of their most important pieces on and off the field. He will start and take the lead in pass-rush situations while also offering leadership the Jaguars were missing on defense last year. —John Shipley, Jaguars On SI

52. Jordan Morgan, OG, Green Bay Packers

Green Bay needs Morgan to be solid in his transition from tackle to guard as a rookie. If he’s not, the Packers suddenly have a real problem inside next to center Josh Myers. 

OnSI’s take: Sean Rhyan played well in a timeshare at right guard down the stretch last year, but Morgan wasted no time in supplanting Rhyan atop the depth chart. Coach Matt LaFleur said Morgan has “everything you look for in a lineman.” A shoulder injury, which kept him out for the start of the preseason, didn’t help. —Bill Huber, Green Bay Packers On SI

51. Sam Darnold, QB, Minnesota Vikings

Darnold is the unquestioned starter now that J.J. McCarthy is out for the season. How does he play? The Vikings aren’t a contender, but they could help shape the NFC North with some legitimate talent on both sides of the ball.

OnSI’s take: The Vikings will go as far as Darnold can take them. If he can blossom like Geno Smith or Baker Mayfield have in recent seasons, then Minnesota could actually be a playoff candidate in the NFC. The pieces around Darnold on offense are elite, but it’s the defense under Brian Flores that is quietly making waves in the Land of 10,000 Lakes. If Darnold comes through and the defense lives up to the preseason hype, there’s a real chance in Minnesota. —Joe Nelson, Minnesota Vikings On SI

50. Mike Macdonald, HC, Seattle Seahawks

Macdonald was a defensive savant with the Baltimore Ravens, and now comes to Seattle with ample talent at his disposal. Can he turn the Seahawks into an elite defense, and take pressure off quarterback Geno Smith?

OnSI’s take: It’s still quite early, but so far, Macdonald has lived up to the hype coming to the Pacific Northwest and immediately breathing life into Seattle’s previously dreadful defense, and the unit should be feisty at minimum, if not potentially a top-10 group by the end of the 2024 season. If that happens, coupled with Smith and all of the offensive weapons on the roster, this team has a shot at being a dark horse come playoff time in the NFC, making his spot in this ranking seem quite low. —Corbin Smith, Seahawks On SI

49. Tee Higgins, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

Higgins has 257 receptions for 3,684 yards and 24 touchdowns in four seasons with the Bengals. / Sam Greene/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK

In a contract year, Higgins is motivated to be his absolute best. Still, questions abound. Does all the drama in Cincinnati eventually overwhelm the team, and if so, does Higgins become a victim of it all?

OnSI’s take: Higgins has had a great camp and looks poised to have a career year. The Bengals haven’t let the business side impact the locker room, which is good news for Higgins and their chances of making a Super Bowl run. — James Rapien, Bengals On SI

48. Dre Greenlaw, LB, San Francisco 49ers

After tearing his Achilles in a freak accident during Super Bowl LVIII, Greenlaw won’t be active to start the year. Once he comes back, is he 100%, or is San Francisco compromised on the second level around Fred Warner?

OnSI’s take: Achilles tears can be brutal on linebackers because they need to stop and start running at the drop of a dime. Greenlaw used to provide speed and violence to the 49ers defense, but if he can’t provide those things anymore, they’ll have to turn to Dee Winters and Jalen Graham, two young and unproven linebackers who have had good training camps. —Grant Cohn, 49ers On SI

47. Chamarri Conner, DB, Kansas City Chiefs

With Sneed off to Tennessee, the Chiefs need Conner to play well and often. If he can provide quality snaps at nickel, it will allow DC Steve Spagnuolo to move Trent McDuffie around in Sneed’s old role.

OnSI’s take: Even if McDuffie ends up spending plenty of time in the slot, Conner’s development as a do-it-all hybrid safety will be the key to the next evolution of the Chiefs’ defense. Spagnuolo asks a lot of his defensive backs, and with starting safeties Justin Reid and Bryan Cook both returning from injuries, Conner will need to be ready for anything in 2024. —Joshua Brisco, Chiefs On SI

46. Gabe Davis, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars

After losing Ridley, general manager Trent Baalke signed Davis to a three-year deal to replace the lost productivity. Often maligned in Buffalo for his lack of consistency, Davis must step up as Trevor Lawrence’s top weapon.

OnSI’s take: After a slow start to training camp, Davis has become one of Jacksonville’s most consistent performers on offense in recent weeks. Davis and Lawrence are getting more in sync each day and there is a good chance the Jaguars ask Davis to be more of a true receiver than the one-trick pony he was in Buffalo. —John Shipley, Jaguars On SI

45. Quentin Johnston, WR, Los Angeles Chargers

If the Chargers are going to be playing meaningful football in December, Johnston needs to become a real weapon. As a rookie, he was plagued by drops, catching only 38 passes for 431 yards on a 56.7% catch rate.

OnSI’s take: Quentin Johnston is entering a crucial second year where he needs to emerge as a quality pass catching threat. So far, Johnston’s rookie season has left a lot to be desired, and another poor showing from Johnston will see him fall even further on the depth chart. —James Brizuela, Chargers on SI

44. Cam Jurgens, C, Philadelphia Eagles

Jurgens is being asked to replace Jason Kelce, who started in the pivot in Philadelphia for 13 years. He’ll be the key for the Tush Push, along with calling out protections and paving interior lanes for Saquon Barkley.

OnSI’s take: A third-year player who was already a Pro Bowl alternate at right guard, Jurgens is moving back inside to his natural position. The Eagles have little concern that Jurgens can handle the physical aspect of the job. The intangibles that Kelce provided as a six-time All-Pro and future Hall of Famer will be tougher to duplicate. —John McMullen, Eagles On SI

43. Puka Nacua, WR, Los Angeles Rams

Nacua and the Rams can’t afford the dreaded sophomore slump. The Rams are going to be an offensive-minded team after Aaron Donald’s retirement, and if Nacua can continue his torrid ascent, a Super Bowl run is possible.

OnSI’s take: Puka Nacua came out of nowhere in 2023, securing rookie records in both receptions (105), and yards (1,486). However, should the star wide receiver fall in production, the entire Rams offensive attack might not keep pace with the other NFC playoff hopeful teams. —James Brizuela, Rams on SI

42. Roger Rosengarten, RT, Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens are overhauling their offensive line with three new starters. Rosengarten is the only rookie of the bunch at right tackle. Baltimore needs the second-rounder to be ready by Week 1.

OnSI’s take: Rosengarten hasn’t officially won the starting job yet, as he’s still competing with the versatile Patrick Mekari. If he does win it, though, he could be the single most important piece of the offensive line. Morgan Moses, the starting right tackle last season, was crucial to the success of the run game, so Rosengarten has some big shoes to fill. —Jon Alfano, Ravens On SI

41. DeMeco Ryans, HC, Houston Texans

Ryans led the Texans to a 10-7 record and a playoff win in his first season as a head coach in 2023. / Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Ryans had a sensational maiden voyage with the Texans, winning the AFC South and a playoff game. This season, his challenge will be handling expectations while continuing to oversee the defense on a play-to-play basis. 

OnSI’s take: Yes, Ryans’s inaugural season as the Texans coach went swimmingly, but he indeed does have challenges ahead. Maintaining the team’s winning ways will be challenging this season as they own one of the more difficult schedules in the league. If Ryans can keep building his established culture, everything else should follow. —Caleb Skinner, Texans On SI

40. Kyle Pitts, TE, Atlanta Falcons

Pitts was the 2021 fourth pick, but he hasn’t become a star for a variety of reasons. With a new coach, new quarterback and new scheme, it’s time for Pitts to elevate, and take the Falcons offense with him.

OnSI’s take: Pitts broke into the NFL with a Pro Bowl nod and only the second 1,000-yard season from a rookie tight end. He had an accurate quarterback at the end of his career before battling injury and subpar quarterback play the past two seasons. Pitts looks to be an early favorite for biggest beneficiary of Cousins’s arrival in Atlanta. —Scott Kennedy, Falcons On SI

39. Laiatu Latu, DE, Indianapolis Colts

Latu was the top edge rusher off the board in April’s NFL draft. If he can translate his promising summer into being an impact player, the Colts suddenly have a fearsome front to help the secondary.

OnSI’s take: Latu is likely going to have to take on a heavier role than initially planned, as starter Samson Ebukam suffered an Achilles tear this summer, but the rookie has looked up to the task as one of the defense’s stars of training camp. His pass-rush toolbelt far surpasses the normal rookie edge defender, and he’s already been giving veteran blockers fits. Just ask Denver Broncos left tackle Garret Bolles after the Colts and Broncos preseason opener. —Jake Arthur, Colts On SI

38. Carlton Davis III, CB, Detroit Lions

Davis was acquired this offseason from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to keep Detroit’s defense from being a sieve on the back end. He’s now joined by Terrion Arnold and Ennis Rakestraw Jr., two rookies with top-tier talent. In short, Davis must lead the Lions resurgence in the secondary. 

OnSI’s take: The Lions improved their secondary with several moves this offseason. This included the trade for Davis, a proven veteran with Super Bowl experience who will slot in as the team’s top option at the position. He fits the man coverage-oriented style of Aaron Glenn nicely and should perform at a high level within the scheme against the many tough receivers that the Lions will face in the NFC North. —John Maakaron, Lions On SI

37. Raheem Morris, HC, Atlanta Falcons

Morris takes over an Atlanta team high on offensive talent but severely lacking on the other side. Considering his work at previous stops, Morris’s acumen needs to be on full display if the Falcons plan to stop someone this year.

OnSI’s take: Morris has the quarterback(s) that Arthur Smith never had. The Falcons have poured a lot of resources into their offense (six first-round draft picks on starting 11). They’re going to need Morris’s defensive chops to make up for several holes on defense. —Scott Kennedy, Falcons On SI

36. Diontae Johnson, WR, Carolina Panthers

Johnson could be the top trade chip come the deadline in November. Traded to the Panthers this winter, he’s an annual 1,000-yard threat with speed. If Carolina is a seller, expect a robust market for Johnson.

OnSI’s take: Diontae Johnson may end up leading the Panthers’ wide receiver room this year, and he should account for a big upgrade for that unit. However, even if it works out great and Carolina winds up tripling its win total from 2023, this still won’t be a playoff team. That could make the Panthers sellers at the trade deadline and Johnson could be on the block, especially if they really like what they see from first-round pick Xavier Legette during the first half of the season. —Tim Weaver, Panthers On SI

35. Tyron Smith, LT, New York Jets

Smith hasn’t played more than 13 games since 2015. The Jets need him to stay healthy, one of their bigger gambles of the offseason. If Smith does succumb to the injury bug, it’s likely first-round pick Olu Fashanu to the rescue.

OnSI’s take: The 33-year-old Smith is a massive upgrade for the Jets at a crucial position, but only when on the field. The eight-time Pro Bowl selection has made only 30 of a possible 67 regular season appearances over the last four years. Sure, Fashanu is a sound insurance policy, but the rookie from Penn State will undoubtedly benefit if allowed to play an understudy role in 2024. Either way, New York’s offseason moves have noticeably improved the blindside protection for Aaron Rodgers. —Ralph Ventre, New York Jets on SI

34. Deshaun Watson, QB, Cleveland Browns

If the Browns have realistic hopes of winning the franchise’s first Super Bowl, it starts and ends with Watson. Since being traded to Cleveland, Watson has played 12 games and largely looked awful. The defense is great, the weapons are plenty, but it doesn’t matter if Watson doesn’t vastly improve.

OnSI’s take: By all accounts, Watson is healthy and has been cleared for contact. He will play in the team’s final preseason game at Seattle before the Browns open the year against an excellent Dallas Cowboys team. There have been a few flashes of the star he was in Houston, but Watson has largely left Cleveland faithful wanting more. This would appear to be his best supporting cast since he came to the Browns, and Watson believes he still has what it takes to win a Super Bowl. But with the toughest strength of schedule in the NFL this year, Cleveland fans know just how challenging that will be without him playing at a high level. —Brendan Gulick, Cleveland Browns On SI

33. Khalil Mack, OLB, Los Angeles Chargers

Mack had 17 sacks for the Chargers in 2023. / Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Mack is an intriguing name for two reasons. One, if he has another All-Pro-level season, the Chargers are a more probable playoff contender. However, if Los Angeles flounders, Mack could be a trade asset and a huge acquisition.

OnSI’s take: Khalil Mack secured a career-high 17.0 sacks in 2023. Even at 33 years old, he is playing with a high motor. If Mack can secure double-digit sacks along with having Joey Bosa back, the Chargers defense can march the team right into the playoffs. —James Brizuela, Chargers On SI

32. Kobie Turner, DT, Los Angeles Rams

With Donald in the rocking chair, the Rams are hoping for a young trio to step up on the front. Turner is already a burgeoning star, having had nine sacks as a rookie. He’ll be flanked by a pair of first-year edge rushers in Braden Fiske and Jared Verse. 

OnSI’s take: No one on the Rams team has benefited more from the draft than defensive tackle Kobie Turner. He managed to secure nine sacks as a rookie, and could elevate his game even more with offenses worried about the “younger” talent in Braden Fiske and Jared Verse. Should Fiske garner more offensive tackle attention, Turner is poised to secure double-digit sacks. —James Brizuela, Rams On SI

31. Anthony Richardson, QB, Indianapolis Colts

Richardson was limited to just four games due to a shoulder injury last season, but he’s a dynamic talent paired with an excellent coach in Shane Steichen. If Richardson stays healthy, the Colts are a dark horse. 

OnSI’s take: Richardson’s unique playmaking ability are the ultimate X-factor for the Colts. They were a 4th-and-1 away from winning the AFC South last year with a quarterback who had blinders on when it came to pushing the football downfield. Richardson is a work in progress, but Steichen and the Colts feel that the offensive playbook is wide open and can reach its full potential with Richardson alongside Jonathan Taylor. —Jake Arthur, Colts On SI

30. Jameson Williams, WR, Detroit Lions

The Lions have their top receiver in Amon-Ra St. Brown and a terrific tight end in Sam LaPorta. If Williams can finally fulfill the promise he entered the league with, Detroit’s offense will go from powerful to unstoppable. 

OnSI’s take: Inconsistency has plagued Williams over his first two campaigns, with an injury and a suspension limiting him to just 18 games. However, the loss of Josh Reynolds has created a big opening in Detroit’s passing game, and a strong start to training camp has set him up for what the Lions hope will be a breakout season for the speedster. —John Maakaron, Lions On SI

29. Gregory Rousseau, DE, Buffalo Bills

Rousseau has been a good player since entering the league three years ago, but hasn’t become a true star. If Buffalo is going to finally reach the Super Bowl, it starts with an improved pass rush. Rousseau is the best hope.

OnSI’s take: While several other Buffalo defensive ends could provide solid play against both the run and the pass, Gregory Rousseau is the only one already doing so at an elite level with an even higher ceiling. For the last two seasons, Rousseau’s overall play—Total Points Saved Per Snap in both run defense and pass rush—has been on par with the likes of Nick Bosa, Chris Jones, DeForest Buckner, and Maxx Crosby. The only real difference between Rousseau and those names is at least one season with an eye-catching sack total, but that may be in the cards; from 2022 to 2023, Rousseau’s pressures grew by 30.9%. Turning a few more of these pressures into sacks could propel both Rousseau into stardom and Buffalo deep into the playoffs. —Chris Seth, Buffalo Bills On SI

28. Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars

Lawrence is now one of the highest-paid quarterbacks in the NFL. No more excuses. No more waiting. Lawrence has to be a top-five player at his position, and if he is, Jacksonville is a threat in the AFC.

OnSI’s take: All eyes are on Lawrence entering 2024. Injuries and turnovers dampened what was supposed to be an MVP-level season in ’23, and it seems like he has been replaced by C.J. Stroud as the new quarterback darling in the AFC South. Lawrence will decide how far the Jaguars go this year. —John Shipley, Jaguars On SI

27. Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Miami Dolphins

Tagovailoa was 1-6 against playoff opponents last season. / Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports

Like Lawrence, Tagovailoa was paid this offseason, affirming his spot as a franchise quarterback. The Dolphins have the right coach and a hoard of offensive talent. They need Tagovailoa to play great against all teams, in all weather.

OnSI’s take: It’s been one of the most repeated stats of the offseason, the Dolphins’ 1–6 record against playoff opponents last season, and Miami clearly has to do something about it if it wants to be taken seriously as a Super Bowl contender. And this is where Tagovailoa comes in because while he hasn’t been the only problem in those games, he’s absolutely has been part of the problem. The Dolphins are hoping it’s nothing but solutions in 2024. —Alain Poupart, Dolphins On SI

26. Kingsley Suamataia, LT, Kansas City Chiefs

Suamataia has arguably the most important job in sports: protecting the blindside of Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs selected Suamataia in the second round with the hopes that he’s the long-term answer at left tackle. If he’s not, Kansas CIty has a pronounced weakness at a key spot.

OnSI’s take: The Chiefs’ bet on Suamataia is partially about what they see in the 21-year-old rookie, but it’s also a bet on Andy Reid, Mahomes and offensive line coach Andy Heck. That trio will help soften the learning curve for Suamataia, who doesn’t need to be elite in his first season; the Chiefs have won multiple Super Bowls with average left tackle play. If Suamataia can be average in the first year of his rookie contract, Kansas City will be thrilled and in prime position to three-peat. — Joshua Brisco, Chiefs On SI

25. Caleb Williams, QB, Chicago Bears

Williams is coming to Chicago with more hype than any quarterback in franchise history. This offseason, general manager Ryan Poles added receivers Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze to help ease his transition. If Williams lives up to expectations, the Bears could contend quickly. —Writer name, link to site

OnSI’s take: Williams needs to realize how little “hero ball” is actually required. If the defense is close to how it finished last year and the offensive line blocks the run for D’Andre Swift and Khalil Herbert, then DJ Moore and those receivers will be open for him. —Gene Chamberlain, Bears On SI 

24. Geno Stone, S, Cincinnati Bengals

Stone is coming to a Cincinnati defense which ranked dead last in yards allowed per completion (12.3) in 2023. Last season, Stone helped captain Baltimore’s defense which ranked second in that metric (9.7), and where he personally notched seven interceptions. 

OnSI’s take: Stone has helped solve the Bengals’ communication issues on the back end. The coaching staff raves about him and veteran Vonn Bell. The safety room has to be a strength if the Bengals are going to bounce back on defense this season. —James Rapien, Bengals On SI

23. Jim Harbaugh, HC, Los Angeles Chargers

For years, Brandon Staley was largely cast as the main problem for the Chargers. Now, Harbaugh replaces him, coming to Los Angeles with a Super Bowl appearance alongside his 44–19-1 NFL record. If he can’t fix the Chargers, the problems may run much deeper.

OnSI’s take: Everyone is banking on Jim Harbaugh rebounding the Chargers in the same way he did for the San Francisco 49ers, Michigan, and Stanford. Though Harbaugh’s coaching legend is well-known, he will need to lead L.A. to the playoffs for the “Harbaugh Era” to be considered a success. —James Brizuela, Chargers On SI

22. Will Anderson Jr., OLB, Houston Texans

The Texans swapped out edge rusher Jonathan Greenard for Danielle Hunter, but it’s the other side which may determine Houston’s fate come January. The Texans saw Anderson become a force in his rookie year with seven sacks and 22 quarterback hits. His progression is the key for the Texans’ Super Bowl dreams.

OnSI’s take: Second-year pass rusher Will Anderson Jr. has the chance to improve off his Rookie Defensive Player of the Year campaign. He will have a great opportunity to do so as many of the opposing offenses the Texans will face will have their eyes locked in on free agency acquisition and All-Pro Danielle Hunter. Getting to the QB is a specialty of Anderson Jr., but we will also be looking to see how he develops the rest of his game to become that homewrecker on the defensive side of the ball. —Caleb Skinner, Texans On SI

21. Mike McCarthy, HC, Dallas Cowboys

These next three are all tied together. McCarthy is a lame-duck coach trying to earn another contract, but has become increasingly unpopular among impatient Cowboys fans. How McCarthy handles a tough situation will mean plenty in Dallas.

OnSI’s take: Lame-duck coach is putting things nicely. Jerry Jones entered the offseason knowing what the team is capable of, and he failed to recharge the roster with any big-name free-agent signings. The failure to lock in new contracts for Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb has also added unnecessary strain to the team’s offense. McCarthy seems to be set up for failure, and his time in Dallas is over if the team doesn’t make a run to the NFC championship game, which is something they’ve failed to do in nearly three decades. —Josh Sanchez, Cowboys On SI

20. Jerry Jones, owner, Dallas Cowboys

Jones is the one who has set this armageddon-style season into motion. He decided not to extend McCarthy or Prescott, while largely doing nothing in free agency. If the Cowboys fall flat, Jones will have plenty to answer to, and then many decisions to make.

OnSI’s take: Jones wants everyone to know he is “all in” on the 2024 season. However, it is hard to feel that way when the Cowboys owner also doesn’t feel any urgency to re-sign the franchise’s star players. This season could be make or break for even the one who sits on the throne. —Tyler Reed, Cowboys On SI

19. Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys

Prescott is in a bizarre, and envious, position. If he has a terrific season, he will be courted by Dallas and every other team in the league needing a quarterback once free agency hits. However, if things get ugly, they could really go sideways.

OnSI’s take: At this point, it makes almost no sense for Prescott to sign an extension. He’s proven himself time and again, but the Cowboys don’t want to commit long-term or put the pieces around him needed to succeed. Meanwhile, every other quarterback in the league is getting paid even without his resume. He’s bet on himself before, and the payoff will be tremendous if he does so this season, and wins. —Randy Gurzi, Cowboys On SI

18. Matthew Stafford, QB, Los Angeles Rams

The Rams and McVay need a healthy season from Stafford to have any chance at advancing to another Super Bowl. / Kiyoshi Mio-USA TODAY Sports

The Rams could be special offensively this season, but it hinges on Stafford. At 36 years old, he has missed 10 games over the past two years. Can he stay healthy? If so, Los Angeles has a wealth of weapons including Nacua and Cooper Kupp.

OnSI’s take: A healthy Matthew Stafford means great things for the Rams. Though he has suffered a few injuries over the past two seasons, he still managed to lead the team to the playoffs in their “rebuilding” year. If Stafford can shake off the injury bug, the offensive weapons at his disposal will lead to a postseason berth. —James Brizuela, Rams On SI

17. Zach Orr, DC, Baltimore Ravens

Orr has one of the toughest jobs in the NFL, taking over for Mike Macdonald. Once an excellent linebacker in Charm City, Orr is now charged with maintaining an elite unit, despite the losses of safety Geno Stone, edge rusher Jadeveon Clowney and linebacker Patrick Queen.

OnSI’s take: Orr, one of the youngest coordinators in the league at 32 years old, is indeed facing quite the challenge in his first season running the show. Macdonald leaves big shoes to fill, and the loss of several key players doesn’t make matters any easier. However, the Ravens clearly have confidence in Orr to lead the ship, so it’s up to him to reward that confidence. —Jon Alfano, Ravens On SI

16. Alim McNeill, DT, Detroit Lions

The Lions need a secondary pass rusher for Aidan Hutchinson, and McNeill is a name to watch. Entering his fourth season, McNeill appears to be a blossoming star after notching five sacks and 10 quarterback hits last season.

OnSI’s take: McNeill has shown plenty of growth over his first three NFL seasons, and the addition of DJ Reader may point to even more explosive play from the N.C. State product in 2024. He has developed nicely as a pass-rusher and is difficult to block in the run game. The defender has the potential to be a force in 2024. —John Maakaron, Lions On SI

15. Jordan Love, QB, Green Bay Packers

As a first-year starter, Love threw for 4,159 yards and 32 touchdowns, leading Green Bay to the NFC divisional round. Due to Love’s ascension, the Packers are a bonafide contender. If he continues to grow, Green Bay has the chance to be elite.

OnSI’s take: “If he continues to grow” will be the phrase that pays not just for this year but the next several years. The Packers went all in on Love by giving him a record-setting contract extension. But what if he doesn’t grow? What if last year’s hot streak was just a hot streak? If Love is great, the championship window is wide open. If Love is merely O.K., that contract is going to weigh down the franchise like a ton of cheese. —Bill Huber, Packers On SI

14. C.J. Stroud, QB, Houston Texans

Stroud looked the part of a superstar quarterback as a rookie, taking the previously horrific Texans to a division title and playoff victory. General manager Nick Caserio added talent to help as well with the acquisition of Stefon Diggs, giving Stroud a chance to make a Super Bowl run.

OnSI’s take: Most of the Texans’ successes in 2024 will lie heavily on the shoulders of second-year QB C.J. Stroud who is aiming to improve off his historic rookie season that led to him earning Offensive Rookie of the Year honors. Stroud has every weapon at his disposal and on paper, the Texans’ offense is one of the best in the country. If Stroud utilizes his playmakers the way that they should be, the Texans can absolutely contend for a Super Bowl. —Caleb Skinner, Texans On SI

13. Keon Coleman, WR, Buffalo Bills

Coleman might be the most impactful rookie in the Super Bowl conversation. If he’s an impact player, Buffalo is a contender. If not, the Bills are going to have a hard time making a deep January run relying almost completely on small gains.

OnSI’s take: This is a… generous placement for Coleman. Buffalo would undoubtedly welcome a year-one breakout, but it’s not as though its offense will live or die by the rookie’s immediate production; the Bills plan to take an egalitarian approach to aerial production this fall, with Josh Allen figured to spread the ball out relatively evenly amongst the likes of Coleman, Curtis Samuel, Khalil Shakir, and second-year tight end Dalton Kincaid (all of whom he’s showcased blossoming rapports with throughout training camp). Coleman being better than advertised would be a nice bonus, but Buffalo has enough offensive talent outside of the 6-foot-3 pass-catcher to produce should the 21-year-old show growing pains. —Kyle Silagyi, Bills On SI

12. Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens

Jackson is coming off his second MVP campaign, and yet legitimate questions persist. Can he elevate the Baltimore passing game? Can he win in the playoffs? Will he stay healthy? Jackson needs to answer all of those questions in the affirmative.

OnSI’s take: No doubt about it, Baltimore’s Super Bowl chances live and die by Jackson. If he goes down, then any hope of the Ravens finally getting over the playoff hump goes out the window. Everyone knows how good he can be, but the regular season means little at this point. For him to truly change his reputation, he’ll have to prove he can perform in the postseason after years of disappointment. —Jon Alfano, Ravens On SI

11. Robert Saleh, HC, New York Jets

No team is under more pressure than the Jets. By extension, the heat is on Saleh. If New York is relatively healthy and doesn’t make the playoffs, Saleh could be out. The Jets added a plethora of big-name veterans this offseason, only ratcheting up expectations. 

OnSI’s take: The Jets essentially pushed all their chips into the center of the table when they acquired Aaron Rodgers, meaning it’s truly boom or bust for Saleh in 2024. Despite presiding over a Top 4 defense each of the past two years, the wins have not amounted. In three seasons since taking the job, the former San Francisco 49ers defensive coordinator owns an 18-33 record as head coach. —Ralph Ventre, New York Jets on SI

10. Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers

With Brandon Aiyuk’s future with the team still undetermined, McCaffrey may be looking at even more touches in the offense. While Deebo Samuel and George Kittle are great, McCaffrey is the reigning Offensive Player of the Year for a reason. The Niners will go as McCaffrey does.

OnSI’s take: McCaffrey led the NFL in touches last season with 339. The last time he led the league in touches—2019—he missed 13 games due to injuries the following season. He currently has a calf strain that will keep him out for all three preseason games. The 49ers must be extremely cautious with him. —Grant Cohn, 49ers On SI

9. Jeff Hafley, DC, Green Bay Packers

Hafley is going to be crucial for the Packers. After years of playing soft, passive defense under coordinator Joe Barry, Green Bay opted for a more aggressive, multi-faceted approach. While Love will drive the offense’s fortunes, Hafley will do the same for the defense.

OnSI’s take: Spurred by a deep and athletic defensive line, Hafley’s unit has produced turnovers by the bushel throughout training camp. The defensie front loves the aggressive approach and the defensive backs love Hafley’s DB background. However, will that attacking approach work against the offensive lines fielded by the Lions, Eagles and 49ers? —Bill Huber, Packers On SI

8.  Patrick Surtain II, CB, Denver Broncos

The Broncos aren’t going to New Orleans in February, but Surtain could be. If Denver struggles early and sells at the trade deadline, it could decide to make Surtain available for a ton of draft capital. Should Surtain be traded, he’s easily the biggest name on the block.

OnSI’s take: The Broncos aren’t interested in trading Surtain. Sean Payton had multiple opportunities to do so this past offseason, and the team stood pat (get it?). The Broncos view PS2 as their best player. And he’s young. What team with plausibly competent leadership trades away its best player, who’s under 25, amidst a rebuild? That doesn’t sound like Payton to me. —Chad Jensen, Broncos On SI

7. Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills

As long as the Bills have Allen, they'll be a playoff contender. / Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Don’t count the Bills out yet. Yes, the roster isn’t as talented when compared to years past. But Buffalo has Allen and a promising rookie receiver in Coleman to pair with the aforementioned Kincaid and Cook. If Allen has an MVP-caliber season, Buffalo has a chance at glory.

OnSI’s take: We co-sign all of this. If Allen produces at his typical level (he’s totaled over 40 touchdowns in an NFL-record four consecutive seasons), Buffalo’s offense will not only continue humming, but individual accolades may be in order. He’s looked sharp throughout training camp and appears to be on the same page as his new weapons corps, which should only excite the Buffalo faithful heading into the new campaign. —Kyle Silagyi, Bills on SI

6. Special teams coaches

Who will adapt the quickest to the new kickoff rule? Who gets the most mileage out of a unique plan of attack? Heck, who loses a game or two because they’re slow in adjusting? We haven’t seen such a radical rule change in many years, and it’ll have a profound impact on everyone, in some way.

Matt Daniels, Special Teams Coordinator, Vikings: “The funny thing about it is that the more and more you work this new dynamic kickoff, you realize how creative you can get. You realize the can of worms it can open up and how much of a week-to-week personnel change it can really be. On one end you get really, really excited. But at the other end, you can get a little bit timid at the same time, too.”

5. Nick Sirianni, HC, Philadelphia Eagles

Sirianni is polarizing in Philadelphia. In three seasons at the helm, he has reached the Super Bowl and been to the playoffs each time. Conversely, the Eagles collapsed last year amidst reports of strife between him and Jalen Hurts. Whether Sirianni can regain control of the team will be a huge pivot point.

OnSI’s take: Sirianni is trying to walk the tightrope of being a CEO coach without full autonomy over his offensive coordinator, a tortured setup that owner Jeffrey Lurie shouldn’t have allowed. That said, the early returns on Sirianni this summer have been positive and the issues with Hurts overblown. There is also little doubt that the accomplishments and cachet of Kellen Moore and Fangio dwarf 2023 coordinators Brian Johnson and Sean Desai. —John McMullen, Eagles On SI

4. Aaron Rodgers, QB, New York Jets

Rodgers is 40 years old and coming off a torn Achilles. He also skipped mandatory minicamp for a vacation to Egypt. Nobody has more to prove in terms of rebounding from injury. Can Rodgers regain his MVP form of 2020 and ’21, or are those days gone?

OnSI’s take: Rodgers appears as determined as ever to prove he’s still got it, and the four-time NFL MVP has routinely flashed his elite ability throughout training camp. Practicing without any physical restrictions, the grizzled veteran has developed a special rapport with WR1 Garrett Wilson and has seemingly revitalized old teammate Allen Lazard. Rodgers can still sling it, but will he remain healthy and will the protection hold up around him?  —Ralph Ventre, New York Jets on SI

3. Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals

Last season, the Bengals were considered top-tier contenders. However, Burrow was never healthy, which torpedoed the season. Now healed, Burrow and Cincinnati are a force once more provided No. 9 can stay upright. If he does, the Bengals are a loaded team helped by a last-place schedule.

OnSI’s take: Burrow knows how valuable he is to the organization and believes he’s one of the best players in the NFL. He continues to progress from his wrist injury. With some new faces on offense, there’s no reason why he shouldn’t have the best season of his career. —James Rapien, Bengals On SI

2. Kyle Shanahan, HC, San Francisco 49ers

Shanahan must be haunted in his dreams by this point. The Niners have reached two Super Bowls and four NFC title games over the past five seasons. San Francisco has yet to break through, with Shanahan’s controversial decisions part of the reason. If the Niners are in position again, can Shanahan make the right calls?

OnSI’s take: Shanahan is the only head coach in professional sports who is considered a genius even though he hasn’t won a championship. He has had the most talented roster in the NFL for four of the past five seasons and still has found ways to squander double-digit leads in big games. If he fails again this season, people will begin to look at him as the common denominator behind the 49ers’ inability to get over the hump. —Grant Cohn, 49ers On SI

1. Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs

If Mahomes is healthy and plays his best, there isn’t a bigger force of nature in football. Simple as that.

OnSI’s take: Much in the same way Godzilla determines the fate of the city he’s stomping through, Mahomes is the only candidate for the No. 1 spot on this list. Valid questions and fair concerns about the Chiefs melt away with Mahomes at the helm. Now he’s in position to rewrite football history. —Joshua Brisco, Chiefs On SI