Week 18 NFL Power Rankings: Ravens and 49ers Clinch Top Seeds

Baltimore again proved how quickly it can take over a game, while San Francisco will also get a chance to rest before the playoffs.

Because our 3-year-old son threw out the remote control at some point over the holiday weekend, I watched Michigan-Alabama on the all-22 broadcast that I could access via my Amazon Fire TV Stick with a separate remote. I’ve watched all-22 before, obviously, but only as a replay during the week, after I have a fairly good idea of what has already happened. I’ve also been lucky enough to see many games in person, perched high enough on the 50-yard line with similar views.

However, it struck me this time just how much the NFL doctors up a broadcast to play up the drama. When watching all-22 live, we know a receiver is open from the second the ball is snapped. We know, pretty definitively, whether the quarterback is holding the ball for too long or the receivers can’t get open.

The game is cut and dry and, in its own way, the game is quite beautiful. It’s football. Not whatever the NFL has become; part reality show, part footsie between the announcers and the coaches who give them the best access and information during the week influencing the commentary, wholly absurd experience.

Offer me a way to watch games like this every Sunday and I may never turn back. 

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The Ravens remain on top after another dominant win over a playoff team :: Mitch Stringer/USA TODAY Sports

1. Baltimore Ravens (13–3)

Last week: win vs. Miami, 56–19
Next week: vs. Pittsburgh

The bananas part about the Ravens posting 56 points on the Miami Dolphins is that, at the 1:44 mark of the first quarter, the Ravens were down 10–7 and Lamar Jackson was about to be dragged down short of the first-down marker by Bradley Chubb. How the tenor of a game can change with this team. 

2. San Francisco 49ers (12–4)

Last week: win at Washington, 27–10
Next week: vs. Los Angeles Rams

This is absolutely an unfair statement to make with hindsight being 20/20, but I am glad Christian McCaffrey is getting some time to heal up. I was surprised that McCaffrey’s load management looked like it did during the season, although, when someone is so responsible for the offense’s complexion, never mind its success, he kind of has to be on the field as much as humanly possible. 

3. Detroit Lions (11–5)

Last week: loss at Dallas, 20–19
Next week: vs. Minnesota

Sadly, another botched (or seemingly botched) call at a high level for NFL officials marred the ending of Saturday’s game. If I were to bet whether Dan Campbell, a former player, as calculated as they come, or an NFL officiating crew made this mistake, I know exactly where I’m placing my money. Still, 11–5 is a tremendous accomplishment. Now, it’s time for the Lions to make some noise in the postseason. It’s unlikely they’ll grab the No. 2 seed, but a date with whoever the heck crawls out of the abyss to earn the No. 7 seed would be preferable to taking on the red-hot Rams right now. 

4. Cleveland Browns (11–5)

Last week: win vs. Jets, 37–20
Next week: at Cincinnati

My rule of thumb for surprising quarterbacks is to give it a month. Defensive coordinators with a month of sample size can take a game plan to a more effective place. What’s interesting is that Joe Flacco seems to be getting better thanks to his library of experience and the progressive knocking off of rust. What is his ceiling in this offense with a healthy receiving corps? Or, have we already seen the apex and are now due for the reality?

5. Dallas Cowboys (11–5)

Last week: win vs. Lions, 20–19
Next week: at Washington

I thought Saturday as I watched the Cowboys: how silly it was that this team opted not to bring back Ezekiel Elliott. I understand wanting to give Tony Pollard a featured role, and how complicated that might be with Elliott in the building, but he feels like he would have been a useful piece as both a pass protector and receiver out of the backfield. In New England, Elliott has more 40-plus receiving yard games than Pollard, despite being in a far denser platoon during the season. 

6. Kansas City Chiefs (10–6)

Last week: win vs. Cincinnati, 25–17
Next week: at Los Angeles Chargers

I think the third quarter, from the moment the Chiefs stopped the Bengals on a horrendously called fourth-down run, to the moment (technically early in the fourth quarter) when they went up 19–17, is the kind of swing that can alter a team moving forward. I believe this mostly because of the performances from Justin Watson and Rashee Rice in big spots, both catching critical balls. Patrick Mahomes opted not to throw to a wide-open Isiah Pacheco down at the goal line, or we may have had something more closely resembling a blowout. 

7. Miami Dolphins (11–5)

Last week: loss at Baltimore, 56–19
Next week: vs. Buffalo

I do like that we’re seeing a live test of one of Mike McDaniel’s core philosophies as an NFL coach. Throughout Hard Knocks, and really throughout his tenure so far, he has been unashamed of admitting his own mistakes as a vehicle into calling out others to make a positive change. The Dolphins were absolutely clubbed by the Ravens, and now they have to play for the division against the Buffalo Bills. What did they learn?

McDaniel has frequently had his team in the right position, but will face a test in how the Dolphins rebound after the loss to Baltimore :: Nathan Ray Seebeck/USA TODAY Sports

8. Philadelphia Eagles (11–5)

Last week: loss vs. Arizona, 35–31
Next week: at New York Giants

I feel like the New York Giants are a terrible opponent for the Eagles in Week 18. Tyrod Taylor is serviceable enough to make some plays, and prepping for Giants defensive coordinator Wink Martindale is like the Batman episodes with the Riddler. There is no telling what Martindale will cook up, and he is totally unafraid to let it rip. While their seeding likely won’t change as a result of anything the Eagles do, their performance, or ability to emerge from this sleepwalk, has a massive significance in the following week’s playoff matchup. 

9. Buffalo Bills (10–6)

Last week: win vs. New England, 27–21
Next week: at Miami

The path for the Bills to win the division and make the playoffs is simple. The path for the Bills to miss the playoffs and endure another massive crunch-time autopsy is also not at all out of the realm of possibility. Talk about a franchise either being able to tell the world I told you so, or being forced to reckon with what the world has been saying (mostly: this team has been ignoring some common-sense improvements and changes that would help them achieve their actual peak). 

10. Jacksonville Jaguars (9–7)

Last week: win vs. Carolina, 26–0
Next week: at Tennessee

A little gun toss to Travis Etienne Jr. broke this game open from a C.J. Beathard–led field goal festival to a full-scale blowout, prompting the Carolina Panthers’ owner to hurl a drink. I will say this for Press Taylor and Doug Pederson: The more Beathard plays, the more confident he’s looked. He’s a high-completion thrower who has been holding the fort admirably. In a world where we’ve seen some truly gruesome backup quarterback play, Beathard is in an upper tier. 

11. Pittsburgh Steelers (9–7)

Last week: win at Seattle, 30–23
Next week: at Baltimore

Jaylen Warren’s first-quarter touchdown was so beautiful. From the right angle, it showcases so well the completeness of his vision. The run was like watching him ride a wave with several lane shifts that were seamless but gutting to the Seattle Seahawks. A playoff berth feels a little unlikely (although Mike Vrabel knocking off the Jaguars would be very on brand). If it happens, Pittsburgh will enter the tournament feeling more confident offensively. 

12. Indianapolis Colts (9–7)

Last week: win vs. Las Vegas, 23–20
Next week: vs. Houston

Maybe it’s a late-season haze, but I am slowly creeping into this territory where I believe the Colts could do something totally wild in the playoffs and knock off a No. 2 seed. Of course any team is capable of doing it, but Indianapolis does a great job of mixing in tempo, which sets Gardner Minshew loose and lays the parameters for a functional running game. 

13. Los Angeles Rams (9–7)

Last week: win at New York Giants, 26–25
Next week: at San Francisco

The Rams weathered a very difficult cross-country game against the Giants this past weekend with horrendous kicking, two picks, a lost fumble and a handful of sacks. Two things stood out: Even though the Giants were able to generate pressure, watch what happens when Puka Nacua motions inside and helps with protection. That guy is a boss. Also, their quick adjustment to tempo to get the Giants out of rhythm felt like a smart one; that’s small evidence of a coaching staff and QB on the same page. 

14. Houston Texans (9–7)

Last week: win vs. Tennessee, 26–3
Next week: at Indianapolis

The potential for a more explosive running game working off C.J. Stroud exists, and we’ve certainly seen it in stretches during the season. Devin Singletary ripped one Sunday against the Tennessee Titans that was eye-opening, and showed just how much respect gets paid to Stroud. His return to this offense was a fruitful one, buoyed by a Sheldon Rankins touchdown of all things (Sheldon is an old friend of The MMQB). 

15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8–8)

Last week: loss vs. New Orleans, 23–13
Next week: at Carolina

A game at Carolina is truly a gift after the team whiffed on a chance to end the season with a bit of a flourish against the New Orleans Saints. Baker Mayfield tried a critical 50-50 ball early in the game to the promising Trey Palmer, eschewing an offense that has instilled some valuable guardrails for him and has provided answers for most of the season. From there, New Orleans, with a confident Derek Carr, showed how fast a team can beat the breaks off the Buccaneers. 

16. Cincinnati Bengals (8–8)

Last week: loss at Kansas City, 25–17
Next week: vs. Cleveland

As I mentioned in the Chiefs blurb, I was a bit disappointed when the Bengals tried to run the ball up the middle on a critical fourth down that could have altered the remainder of the third quarter and fourth quarter significantly. Cincinnati has done a great job with Jake Browning. He has shown an ability to be quick and decisive. Let him pull the trigger and avoid that front seven. 

17. New Orleans Saints (8–8)

Last week: win at Tampa Bay, 23–13
Next week: vs. Atlanta

We will have a few big offseason coaching hires, but beyond that, we will have very high-profile coordinator changes that will feel like head coaching changes. I am of the belief that OC Pete Carmichael will be out in New Orleans. I also believe that someone better equipped to work with Derek Carr and who has a history with the quarterback will get the job. 

18. Denver Broncos (8–8)

Last week: win vs. Los Angeles Chargers, 16–9
Next week: at Las Vegas

The post–Russell Wilson era has begun. Jarrett Stidham, Sean Payton’s hand-picked successor, was 20-of-32 for 224 yards and a touchdown. The Broncos put up 16 total points against what has to be one of the most checked-out franchises in the NFL. Denver did not reach the playoffs, as Sean Payton had theorized loudly in the preseason, but it did perform better than I expected, and certainly better than a lot of folks did. 

Stidham is getting two games to show what he can do with Russell Wilson on the bench :: Isaiah J. Downing/USA TODAY Sports

19. Seattle Seahawks (8–8)

Last week: loss vs. Pittsburgh, 30–23
Next week: at Arizona

The Seahawks were outschemed in a battle of offensive coordinators facing challenging circumstances. Outside of DK Metcalf, the entirety of Seattle’s high-powered receiving corps was shut down. Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Tyler Lockett combined for two catches and 22 yards in a game that would put some power back into Seattle’s hands. Now, the team’s fate rests mostly in the hands of Matt LaFleur and the Green Bay Packers. 

20. Green Bay Packers (8–8)

Last week: win at Minnesota, 33–10
Next week: vs. Chicago

I love that Green Bay’s season comes down to Jordan Love’s ability to own the team that his predecessor loved to boast about owning. Among quarterbacks with at least 150 qualifying snaps over the past three weeks, Love is third—behind Lamar Jackson and Matthew Stafford—in a combination of expected points added and completion percentage over expectation. 

21. Chicago Bears (7–9)

Last week: win vs. Atlanta, 37–17
Next week: at Green Bay

I wrote a longer piece this Sunday about what a great job the Bears have quietly done rebuilding their roster with some savvy moves. I’m going to start the campaign this week for Chicago to keep Justin Fields and draft a quarterback with the No. 1 pick. Together, let’s break on through to the other side. Also [Whispers.]: The Bears have been the second-best defense in the NFL over the past month. 

22. Minnesota Vikings (7–9)

Last week: loss vs. Green Bay, 33–10
Next week: at Detroit

It’s wild that a team this bad (at least in terms of overall roster quality) is not going to be drafting in the top 10. Minnesota does have one thing going for it: the ability to pick coaches who will never be bad enough to completely tank a season. Kevin O’Connell was tough in 2024, but has clearly reached the end of his fairy dust supply when it comes to the quarterback position. 

23. Las Vegas Raiders (7–9)

Last week: loss at Indianapolis, 23–20
Next week: vs. Denver

Since I don’t really have anything definitive to say about the Raiders (let’s talk when they make a decision on Antonio Pierce), I will point out another call that looks to have been blown from this weekend. This certainly doesn’t feel like offsides to me. 

24. Atlanta Falcons (7–9)

Last week: loss at Chicago, 37–17
Next week: at New Orleans

I get that Atlanta doesn’t have a quarterback but, remember, to some degree, that was by choice. The result of this experimental offense? No games with more than 30 points, and only six games in which the offense posted a positive expected points added number. I think Arthur Smith will get a crack at running this show with a better quarterback. But how disappointing would it be if the play-caller we were dreaming of never actually materialized? 

25. New York Giants (5–11)

Last week: loss vs. Los Angeles Rams, 26–25
Next week: vs. Philadelphia

The Giants are an absolute pain in the neck to play this time of year, which was my main takeaway from that Rams game. The defense in particular can sometimes border on what seems to be recklessness, but through the context of a full game it works. And the Giants can get to the quarterback, which feeds into the quarterback’s decline in performance over the course of a game. It really is something to watch. 

26. New York Jets (6–10)

Last week: loss at Cleveland, 37–20
Next week: at New England

Outside of an old-man–Joe Flacco hiccup that led to a touchdown, this Jets team looked completely overrun in Cleveland on Thursday night. It got me thinking: There’s no doubt the Jets have to bring in an armada of wide receivers this offseason. They have to either draft a tackle or absolutely nail free agency and hit some selective value at the position. Outside of Sauce Gardner and Garrett Wilson, they really will be a kind of accumulated all-star team of mercenary players. And … how often does that work out?

The Jets need to find another receiver to help Garrett Wilson next season :: Vincent Carchietta/USA TODAY Sports

27. Arizona Cardinals (4–12)

Last week: win at Philadelphia, 35–31
Next week: vs. Seattle

So I picked 13 upsets in last week’s MMQB staff picks in a massive, desperate attempt to take first place. It didn’t go well. But the Cardinals beating the Eagles was real, I promise. If anyone was going to know how to uniquely annoy Jalen Hurts and the Eagles’ offensive staff, it was Jonathan Gannon. Philly’s staff was collaborative in 2022, and, chances are, Gannon would have had a say in how the Eagles’ offense developed, giving pointers from a defensive perspective. 

28. Tennessee Titans (5–11)

Last week: loss at Houston, 26–3
Next week: vs. Jacksonville

The Titans, now losers of three straight games, are due to select No. 7 in the current draft order. With a fairly standard allotment of picks coming (Tennessee does have an additional seventh-rounder), it will be an anticipated offseason to see where the Titans are, versus where the rest of the world thinks they are. 

29. Los Angeles Chargers (5–11)

Last week: loss at Denver, 16–9
Next week: vs. Kansas City

My Chargers head coaching wishlist:

1. Ben Johnson

2. Jim Harbaugh

3. Pulling a Texans and hiring two straight one-year placeholders with the hope that the coaches will lose a significant number of games and produce more draft capital, priming Justin Herbert for his best ball as he gets closer to the age of 30. 

30. New England Patriots (4–12)

Last week: loss at Buffalo, 27–21
Next week: vs. New York Jets

It’s strange that we have either arrived at, or are approaching, some kind of resolution on the Bill Belichick situation (because with one game left, we have to at least be in the neighborhood of one) … but nothing definitive has been shared or leaked publicly. An unceremonious exit would be Belichickian in nature, but I also covered the end of the Tom Coughlin era and I found the muted goodbye press conference quite sad. 

31. Washington Commanders (4–12)

Last week: loss vs. San Francisco, 27–10
Next week: vs. Dallas

What a fitting end to the Ron Rivera era it would be if the Commanders somehow clipped the desperate-for-seeding Cowboys in the season finale, also costing the franchise a shot at drafting in the No. 2 spot. 

32. Carolina Panthers (2–14)

Last week: loss at Jacksonville, 26–0
Next week: vs. Tampa Bay

We will eventually get over David Tepper going all LMPD on the Jaguars’ fan base. And Tepper will eventually pay enough money to hire someone he wants to be the Panthers’ coach. But, anyone who walks into that situation will have no excuse this time. Prospective candidates, you have been warned. This is the man you’ll be working for.