NFL Playoff Predictions: MMQB Staff Picks for Super Bowl LVIII

Which team is going all the way? Our writers and editors fill out their brackets and pick a champion, a final score and an MVP for the big game.

The playoffs are here! We’ve already analyzed 272 regular-season games and dished out our season awards, so now it’s time to answer the one question on your mind: Which two teams will play in the Super Bowl?

This year, that question seems easier to answer than ever. Welcome to the absolute chalkiest Super Bowl predictions this site has ever produced. Yes, there is a lot of love for the two favorites, the San Francisco 49ers and Baltimore Ravens, in the picks below.

Were any of our writers and editors bold enough to go off the board? Well …

Which two teams are headed to Las Vegas? Our staff thinks a lot alike :: Illustration by Bryce Wood. Tim Heitman/USA TODAY Sports (Hurts); Jessica Rapfogel/USA TODAY Sports (Jackson); Jasen Vinlove/USA TODAY Sports (Prescott); Cary Edmondson/USA TODAY Sports (McCaffrey); Denny Medley/USA TODAY Sports (Mahomes); Jim Rassol/USA TODAY Sports (Allen)

Our voters:

Albert Breer, senior NFL reporter
Conor Orr, senior writer
Gilberto Manzano, staff writer
Matt Verderame, staff writer
Greg Bishop, senior writer
Michael Rosenberg, senior writer
Andrew Brandt, business of football columnist
John Pluym, managing editor
Mitch Goldich, editor
Claire Kuwana, editor

Albert Breer

Super Bowl: 49ers 31, Ravens 24
MVP: Christian McCaffrey

There’s a lot of chalk here, yes, and a big part of that, to me, is that once you get past the first group (49ers, Ravens, Bills and Chiefs, if they turn it on), the league sort of flattens out and you pretty quickly get to the teams that are banged up, flawed or young. And that leaves a golden opportunity in front of the two teams I have in the Super Bowl—teams that have knocked on the door, and looked as prepared as they’ve ever been to blow it down and get to what would be a pretty incredible rematch. When they get there, I like the Niners on the premise that it’s really hard to beat teams this good twice (meaning if the Ravens had lost the regular season game, I’d probably pick them). Also, I think McCaffrey would be the X-factor in that game, after going for 131 scrimmage yards on 20 touches in the teams’ regular season showdown—winning a ring with the same franchise his dad did in 1994 and burnishing a case for Canton that could get pretty compelling with a nice playoff run.

Conor Orr

Super Bowl: 49ers 27, Ravens 23
MVP: Deebo Samuel

I absolutely despise this pick because it’s a complete copout. The Ravens and the 49ers are the two best teams in the NFL, and so one would deduce that they are the two teams that will find their way to the Super Bowl. It won’t happen this way, because it rarely happens this way. The Ravens were playing their best football before the start of the playoffs and a bye, which almost always means they won’t be playing their best ball in the playoffs. They seemed unbeatable in Lamar Jackson’s first MVP season in 2019, when Baltimore was manhandled by the Titans in the playoffs. It happens. However, I fail to see a team complete enough to pick with any confidence. Yes, I have the Dolphins stunning the Chiefs because I am a fan of chaos, and having Tyreek Hill beat the receiver-less Kansas City would almost certainly qualify as chaos (though, if a good game happens on Peacock and there isn’t anyone to see it, does it really count at all?) That should counterbalance the relative chalkiness of my Super Bowl selection.

As for the NFC, I liked the idea of taking the Packers over the Cowboys, but I think Dallas will go at least one round, and its defense should be able to match up well with Mike McCarthy’s former team. I was tempted to pick the Eagles to lose to the Buccaneers, especially with their weaknesses at secondary, which could be exposed by Tampa’s big play offense, but the Buccaneers are also in a bit of a rut offensively and struggled to put up points against the Panthers a week ago. So that is how we arrive here, with something of a clash of titans in Las Vegas. I picked Deebo Samuel as the MVP because I expect Baltimore to come after Brock Purdy and to try to limit Purdy’s access to easy completions, especially to Christian McCaffrey. In those scenarios, it has often been the big playmaking ability of Samuel that has broken games wide open. Samuel will have nine catches for 131 yards and two touchdowns, as well as 47 rushing yards and a touchdown on a fake handoff to McCaffrey at the goal line turned jet sweep.

Gilberto Manzano

Super Bowl: Ravens 33, 49ers 30
MVP: Lamar Jackson

I’m probably making a big mistake going with the two No. 1 seeds to advance to Las Vegas. It’s been a season filled with upsets and surprises, especially from backup quarterbacks—or I’m just really bad at making game picks. But I’m going with the Ravens because they have the most impressive wins this season, including lopsided victories over the 49ers, Lions, Dolphins and Seahawks, and an overtime win over the Rams.

I could see the Ravens running into trouble against the Browns due to familiarity as AFC North rivals, but that compelling matchup won’t occur, based on these picks. The Browns didn’t face C.J. Stroud during their Week 16 victory in Houston. Stroud will deliver a special performance at home in the wild-card round, but the magic will run out vs. Lamar Jackson in Baltimore. Jackson has outplayed Patrick Mahomes this season and has better weapons. Ravens tight end Mark Andrews could be back in time for the AFC title game. The Chiefs will win a few playoff games because I trust Mahomes more than Josh Allen. The inconsistent Bills still don’t have a team identity, but the physical Ravens and their dominant defense know exactly who they are.

Over in the NFC, the 49ers are on a level above the rest. The Eagles will be one-and-done in Tampa Bay because of injuries, fatigue and a mess on the defensive side. I’m also going with the Rams to upset the Lions in Matthew Stafford’s return to Detroit, but it bothers me that this will be a trendy upset over the next few days. Hey, at least I have the home underdogs with the Buccaneers and Texans. I almost went with the Packers over the Cowboys, but I like the experience advantage from Dak Prescott over Jordan Love, who will be making his postseason debut. Also, the Cowboys have won 16 consecutive games at home. They’ll make it 18 straight to advance to the NFC title game for the first time since the 1990s. But the Cowboys don’t match up well with the 49ers, who will likely cruise to the Super Bowl. 49ers-Rams could be a fun matchup in the divisional round. I just think the Rams are too young, have issues in the secondary and struggle on special teams.

The Super Bowl will be a rematch from the Christmas Day matchup that went sideways for the 49ers. Expect Kyle Shanahan to make the proper adjustments for Round 2, but it won’t be enough against John Harbaugh’s crew.

Matt Verderame

Super Bowl: 49ers 24, Ravens 22
MVP: Christian McCaffrey

If these four matchups materialize for the divisional round, it’ll perhaps be the best weekend of football in years. We would be looking at three divisional matchups and the Chiefs’ playing in Buffalo, which at this juncture feels like an intradivisional battle.

The AFC seems more open than the NFC. San Francisco will go to the Super Bowl if the 49ers are healthy. In fact, they might face their biggest hurdle in their first game if the Rams come to town. Sean McVay and Kyle Shanahan are incredibly close, and the games between the two almost always have fun wrinkles. Expect a very tight game if it comes to fruition.

As for the AFC, the Ravens, Bills and Chiefs are the contenders. All could go to the Super Bowl. All could go winless in the postseason. Baltimore is the best team and therefore the pick to reach the Super Bowl in Las Vegas, but the Ravens have been a disaster in the playoffs with Lamar Jackson. Throughout his career, they’ve won a single game in the postseason.

That said, the Bills and Chiefs are similar teams. They have tons of talent, great quarterbacks and serious inconsistencies. And if Kansas City and Buffalo play each other on divisional weekend, the Bills will have the edge because they’ll be at home. Still, that’s probably the biggest coin flip in the playoffs, and the winner has a real shot to go to Baltimore and win.

Bottom line: The Niners have the easiest path and the most complete team. They’ll finally win it all in the Shanahan era.

Greg Bishop

Super Bowl: 49ers 31, Ravens 28
MVP: Christian McCaffrey

Odd how this lined up. I think that owes to this postseason looking really wide open, like, as wide open as I can remember. It’s easier to feel good about the No. 1 seeds in both conferences, in part because they’ve generally been on a level above everyone else. Even then, the 49ers had some stretches that weren’t great. The Ravens had some games that were duds. This probably sounds like a copout, but it’s the truth: This postseason has a Giants win it all as the No. 6 seed feel to it. The team that gets hot right now is likely to be the team that wins. That sentiment accounts for the chaos in the early rounds of my bracket: Both five-seeds win, and both six-seeds win. I think the Rams are heating up at precisely the right time. Miami has cooled significantly, but Kansas City is basically playing as hot as the temperatures outside. The Eagles are just better, and Cleveland should not be discounted; the Browns continue to surprise. Still, the No. 1 seeds in both conferences can boast the most complete rosters in professional football. They’ve been consistent. They’ve won in different ways. The bet here is Kyle Shanahan will win that elusive championship, finally putting all the elements in San Francisco forever together when it matters most.

Michael Rosenberg

Super Bowl: Ravens 30, 49ers 20
MVP: Lamar Jackson

This season showed us again just how hard it is to stay great in the NFL. The Eagles nearly won the Super Bowl and looked like the league’s best team for two months this fall, and lately they haven’t even looked like a playoff team. The Bills were adrift for most of the season. The Chiefs seem determined to show that even Patrick Mahomes cannot make a bad receiving corps look good. So let’s appreciate how dominant the Ravens have been all season. They went 13–3 before losing a finale that was meaningless to them, and 13 of those 16 opponents finished with winning records. They demolished the three best teams they faced: the 49ers, Dolphins and Lions. I am well aware of Lamar Jackson’s playoff numbers, but he was phenomenal in the most-hyped matchup of the season, at San Francisco, and he is about to win his second MVP award. He’ll answer all doubters this winter.

Andrew Brandt

Super Bowl: 49ers 33, Ravens 17
MVP: Brock Purdy

In the NFC, my admitted bias toward the Packers is showing, at least in their getting past the Cowboys before facing the 49ers. I truly believe Green Bay is more than a cute story as the youngest team in the league with a new quarterback. The Packers are actually one of the best teams playing right now, and, yes, I think they will go into Dallas, win and cause potential changes involving their former coach, Mike McCarthy. I also believe the Eagles will find the cure that ails them in Tampa, using that bounce to get even better against the Lions. But it is the 49ers’ conference to lose, and they are too talented to lose either home game before the Super Bowl.

In the AFC, it is hard to know which Bills team will show up, not only game to game, but quarter to quarter, even series to series. I am going to bet on them having more good series than bad ones, at least until they get to Baltimore for the AFC championship game. The Dolphins and Chiefs haven’t given us much to be confident about, but I’m going to pick an upset in Kansas City in what I predict will be a turnover-filled game in the cold. As for the Browns, Texans and Steelers: all nice stories, but no. Like the 49ers in the NFC, it is the Ravens’ year in the AFC, led by on-field and off-field MVP Lamar Jackson (his $80 million in pay this year is $20 million clear of any other player).

The Super Bowl will be close for three quarters before the 49ers pull away late. In a wild year in the NFL, the chalk picks will end it: Both top seeds in the Super Bowl, with the favored 49ers winning it.

John Pluym

Super Bowl: 49ers 31, Ravens 28
MVP: Christian McCaffrey

Before the regular season began, I picked the Chiefs over the 49ers in Super Bowl LVIII with Patrick Mahomes winning MVP. Kansas City has had a good season, winning 11 games. However, it doesn’t have the explosive offense it’s had in the past, so I have my doubts about the team winning back-to-back Lombardi Trophies. Still, I have the Chiefs advancing to the AFC championship and losing to the Ravens and Lamar Jackson, who should be the MVP of the league.

Speaking of the Ravens, I think they’re the most consistent team in the playoffs in every phase. And they run the football better than any other team in the playoffs, including the 49ers. Todd Monken might have been the best coach hire in 2023, taking over Baltimore’s offense as coordinator. We knew the Ravens would be able to run the ball, but Jackson has also been explosive throwing it down the field to rookie sensation Zay Flowers and Odell Beckham Jr. And I think tight end Isaiah Likely could be a potential star in 2024.

All of that said, I’m sticking with at least one of the teams I predicted to make the Super Bowl to win it all. I love the 49ers. They have one of the best play-callers in football in Kyle Shanahan. They have playmakers all over the offense with Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle. Of course, there’s one player I haven’t mentioned, and that’s Brock Purdy, who has been outstanding this season at times and struggled at others. I’m betting he’ll play great in the playoffs, along with San Francisco’s defense. I do think the 49ers can handle the Ravens. They have the talent. It’s about time Shanahan & Co. bring a Lombardi back to San Francisco.

Mitch Goldich

Super Bowl: 49ers 30, Ravens 26
MVP: Brock Purdy

Yes, I am going chalk, too.

I’m normally comfortable stepping out onto a ledge at this time of year (I was one of the very few people to have the Bengals reaching Super Bowl LVI), but given that I have not gotten an AFC game wrong since 2021, I am committed to the truth. A few weeks ago I had come to the conclusion that the Chiefs were likely a one-and-done team in the playoffs, but I think things lined up well for them with a chance to rest players in Week 18 and now a date with the banged-up Dolphins. Then they’d go to Buffalo, in what will be much discussed as Patrick Mahomes’s first career road playoff game, for a true rivalry game and rematch of one of the wildest games of the season. And I think they’ll actually win it before running out of steam against a superior Ravens team. Baltimore, by the way, will beat old pal Joe Flacco one week after Matthew Stafford downs his old team in Detroit.

In the NFC, I do have two road teams winning on wild-card weekend, though I suspect the Eagles and Rams are popular picks. It’s possible I’m being a bit of a homer for picking the Eagles to squeak by the Bucs, so let’s get this out of the way: I predict the Cowboys will beat Philly by more than two touchdowns in the divisional round, and I promise I won’t talk myself out of it the week of the game.

I love the Super Bowl rematch between the league’s two best teams, and think this time San Francisco would be able to make whatever changes are needed to come out on top.

I often like to pick an under-the-radar candidate to win Super Bowl MVP, but in this case that player is the starting quarterback. I nearly picked Deebo Samuel here. But I think Purdy will do what he’s done all year to elevate a team with plenty of star power around him, and the voters will decide they’ve gotta hand it to him. After Purdy wins a championship, people will spend the 2024 season screaming at each other online about whether he’s actually good, and one side will get to say, “I mean, he won Super Bowl MVP.”

Claire Kuwana

Super Bowl: Ravens 34, 49ers 28
MVP: Lamar Jackson

I said it at the beginning of the season: The Ravens were always going to find their offensive groove. And with Lamar Jackson returning to his MVP form, they’ve become even more of a threat than we could have imagined, rising through the ranks of an otherwise collapsing AFC. (Dramatic? Maybe.) It’s sink or swim once the playoffs start, and the Chiefs are already drowning without any receiver depth to their name. In what would normally be a shootout between them and the Dolphins, the offensive combination of Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, Raheem Mostert and more will shine against a lackluster Kansas City team. Ultimately, Mike McDaniel & Co. won’t be able to outscheme the Ravens—not that much has changed since New Year’s Eve.

Within the middle seeds, Kevin Stefanski and Sean McVay will prove their coaching aptitude in their respective conferences, outlasting the surging Lions and Texans. The Browns and Rams have proved they can be creative with what they have, and, when tested in the playoffs, both will have important veteran experience to lean on in Joe Flacco and Matthew Stafford. Dak Prescott and the Cowboys will benefit from their home-field advantage after going 8–0 at AT&T Stadium this season but will inevitably run into the wall that is the 49ers when it comes to the conference title. (While we’re here: This run will be just enough to give Cowboys fans false hope for playoffs to come, erase Dak Prescott’s 15-interception season in 2022 from memory and quiet any remaining calls for Mike McCarthy to be fired.)

Kyle Shanahan’s system and roster chocked full of All-Pro candidates will take the 49ers back to the Super Bowl. But Brock Purdy’s lack of experience will show up again, and San Francisco’s defense won’t be able to thwart Baltimore’s dynamic offense. The Ravens have options at receiver, and it’s a challenge for any team to cover them all—let alone a team where its secondary may be its primary weakness. It’ll be a close game, but here’s what will give the Ravens the edge: John Harbaugh’s squad has been one of the few teams this season to prove it can beat other winning teams. The 49ers (with the exception of beating the Cowboys early on and the Eagles in Week 13, which looks less impressive now, anyway) can’t necessarily say the same.