Wild-Card Weekend Preview: Breaking Down All-22 Film of Playoff Matchups

The weekend slate features three rematches from the regular season. Here's a trio of key plays that give insight into how the first round of the playoffs could shake out.

Welcome to wild-card weekend.

Between Saturday and Monday, there will be six playoff games with three featuring rematches from the regular season.

In what feels like a decade ago, the Philadelphia Eagles beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 3, 25–11. In Week 9, the Kansas City Chiefs and Miami Dolphins linked up in Germany, with Kansas City taking a 21–0 halftime lead before holding on, 21–14. And finally, the Houston Texans and Cleveland Browns played in Week 16, with Cleveland winning 36–22.

In this week’s film study, we look back at those games, and dive into what we could see this time around.

Texans must contain deep routes with Amari Cooper

A few weeks ago in this space, I detailed the first play of Houston-Cleveland, which went for 53 yards to Amari Cooper.

This time we’re going to look at another Joe Flacco deep shot, also to Cooper. And much like the first one, it was set up by Flacco getting great protection.

In this situation, the Browns were leading 14–0 early in the second quarter, facing first-and-10 from their own 25-yard line. Coach Kevin Stefanski came out in a heavy look, utilizing six offensive linemen (with Nick Harris, No. 53, as a fullback) and two receivers. Tight end David Njoku was also lined up on the right side.

For Houston, this looked like a classic running play. The Texans went with eight defenders near the line of scrimmage while playing a single high safety in Jalen Pitre (No. 5).

The Browns lined up in a run look on this play, leaving Houston exposed on the back end / Screenshot from NFL+ All-22

On the snap, Cleveland sold a run to the right … hard. The Browns down-blocked across the board and the Texans bought it, with no contain man staying home on the backside edge. If you count in the picture below, all eight men at the line of scrimmage were pursuing hard.

As a result, Flacco’s bootleg against the grain was perfectly set up. Houston was also forced to defend both receivers in man coverage, with Pitre in an impossible spot. With the Browns running a sail concept, Pitre had to decide whether to drive on Njoku’s crossing route, or bail and provide help on Cooper’s fly pattern.

Flacco sold the play action to the right, drawing Houston's linebackers in and leaving its defensive backs exposed / Screenshot from NFL+ All-22

With Njoku clearing the linebackers underneath, Pitre chose to drive on the crosser.

For Flacco, he could have still thrown to Njoku and likely gotten a first down. Instead, leading by 14 and having already hit Cooper for a deep shot earlier, he loaded up for another home run ball with inexperienced corner D’Angelo Ross (No. 37) in coverage.

With the run fake serving its purpose, Flacco had plenty of time to line up a deep throw downfield / Screenshot from NFL+ All-22

The result was a perfectly placed pass by the 38-year-old Flacco, while Cooper outmuscled the 5'9" Ross for the reception before breaking away.

In one-on-one coverage, Cooper beat his man for a long touchdown / Screenshot from NFL+ All-22

If Houston is going to win this time around, it starts with playing more disciplined defensive football and reading keys more clearly.

The last time Browns and Texans played, C.J. Stroud did not. However, Cleveland scored 36 points because Houston couldn't contain the deep ball to Amari Cooper.

If that doesn't change, neither will the result this weekend. pic.twitter.com/7wS6uGVPvN

— Matt Verderame (@MattVerderame) January 10, 2024

Dolphins can’t be fooled by Chiefs’ myriad blitz packages

Want a statistic? When the Dolphins allow at least three sacks this season, they’re 1–5. When they allow fewer than three? 10–1.

Against the Chiefs in Week 9, Miami yielded three sacks while allowing six quarterback hits. Below, we’ll take a look at how Kansas City was able to get immediate pressure utilizing a tactic it has perfected: using defensive backs in the blitz.

On this play, Miami is facing second-and-16 after losing six yards on first down. The Dolphins lined up with three receivers to the left and one to the right, with Raheem Mostert (No. 31) in the backfield. Kansas City is in nickel, appearing to give a zone look with two-high safeties. 

The Chiefs disguised their unique blitz package with a typical zone look before the snap / Screenshot from NFL+ All-22

In one way, the Chiefs did exactly what the presnap look indicated. Kansas City was playing two-high and dropped five into zone underneath, with linebacker Willie Gay (No. 50) running down the seam.

However, that strategy was executed in an unconventional fashion, forcing the Dolphins’ offensive line into chaos. Defensive end George Karlaftis (No. 56) dropped into shallow zone coverage, while corner Trent McDuffie (No. 22) came on a blitz from the slot.

Meanwhile, defensive tackle Tershawn Wharton (No. 98) drove hard off the right guard’s outside shoulder, trying to beat right tackle Austin Jackson (No. 73) to the inside before he diagnosed Karlaftis’s drop. Lastly, Kansas City ran a game on the left side, with Chris Jones (No. 95) and Charles Omenihu (No. 90) twisting to occupy the left tackle, guard and center. 

The blitz caught the Dolphins' offensive line off guard, with Tagovailoa immediately facing pressure / Screenshot from NFL+ All-22

The outcome is a jailbreak. McDuffie easily beat left tackle Terron Armstead (No. 72) around the edge, while Wharton split the double team. As Tua Tagovailoa hit the top of his drop, nobody adjusted for a hot read, leaving him with the choice of taking the sack or throwing the ball away.

Because the blitz was not anticipated, Tagovailoa's receivers weren't finishing their routes before the pass rush arrived / Screenshot from NFL+ All-22

Once McDuffie cleared Armstead, the play was essentially over, as Wharton was breaking through the ill-timed double team. The result? A massive sack to set up third-and-forever.

The result of the play was a drive-killing sack that created an impossible third-and-long situation / Screenshot from NFL+ All-22

If the Chiefs can consistently cross up Miami’s offensive line—now with the advantage of crowd noise—that’s a tough obstacle for the Dolphins to overcome.

This is something to watch on Saturday night.

The Chiefs love to bring creative blitzes, forcing tough decisions along the offensive line. In Germany, Kansas City consistently created pressure using its defensive backs, notching three sacks on the day. pic.twitter.com/0FFioUGCkH

— Matt Verderame (@MattVerderame) January 10, 2024

Eagles will look to gash Buccaneers on ground once more

Back in Week 3, the Eagles won by 14 points over the Buccaneers, largely because of their rushing attack. Led by D’Andre Swift, Philadelphia ran for 201 yards on 5.0 yards per attempt, shredding Todd Bowles’s defense throughout. Overall, the Eagles outgained the Bucs by nearly 300 yards.

Swift ran for 8.1 YPC, and his second-longest run of the night—a 26-yard scamper early in the third quarter—is perhaps most indicative of the problems Tampa Bay faced that evening. Philadelphia led 13–3 coming out of halftime and faced second-and-1 at the Buccaneers’ 42-yard line.

As can be seen below, the Eagles came out in the pistol formation with tight end Dallas Goedert lined up tight left. Tampa Bay surprisingly matched by putting only six men inside the box, utilizing its nickel package. Off the screen, the Bucs brought safety Ryan Neal on a blitz off the left side of the line. 

Before the ball was snapped, the Eagles' offense already owned a run-block advantage / Screenshot from NFL+ All-22

Immediately, Philadelphia has an enormous advantage. With six blockers against six defenders, the Eagles won the numbers battle. But worse for Tampa Bay is the push achieved by left guard Landon Dickerson, who washed Mike Greene (No. 91) down the line. 

Kelce was able to take a clean path to the second level and ensure a big running lane for Swift / Screenshot from NFL+ All-22

Additionally, All-Pro center Jason Kelce (No. 62) climbed without interruption to the second level, reaching linebacker Devin White (No. 45) to seal off the inside lane. At this point, veteran linebacker Lavonte David had to fill his gap aggressively. Instead, he jumps outside.

Swift was able to reach the second level of the Bucs' defense untouched / Screenshot from NFL+ All-22

As a result, Swift had incredible room to run before finishing the jaunt with a leap over star safety Antoine Winfield Jr.

Swift's big run was part of a huge day for the Eagles' offense, which topped 200 yards on the ground / Screenshot from NFL+ All-22

If the Buccaneers are going to get revenge this time around, it starts with shutting down the run game, and allowing Bowles to draw up creative blitzes in passing situations.

Looking at tape of the three rematches we'll see of Wild Card Weekend.

Have to think the Eagles revisit this play is they get six in the box. Just easy money with their front. pic.twitter.com/VwdDIz9VXt

— Matt Verderame (@MattVerderame) January 10, 2024