The Buccaneers Should Run It Back With Todd Bowles and Baker Mayfield

Tampa Bay should pay its quarterback, commit to its head coach and believe in its GM, because, now, free from Tom Brady’s shadow, they all proved something in 2023 that we couldn’t see clearly before.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers lost to the Detroit Lions on Sunday, capping an unexpectedly memorable season despite being led by a quarterback few teams took seriously as an every-game starter. And, as we hold the finished product in our hands, it becomes a bit of a kaleidoscope by which we can view the recent past and think more broadly *hands you a joint*.

Contort your eyes just a little bit, and see Baker Mayfield, who finished Sunday with a dagger of an interception deep in his own territory. Mayfield finished the regular season with 4,044 passing yards, 28 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. He replaced Tom Brady, the greatest player in NFL history, who threw for 4,694 yards, 25 touchdowns and nine interceptions in 2022.

Goodness, no, we’re not about to make an argument that Mayfield is better than post–Patriots Tom Brady, but we are asking: How good were the core of this team and its coaching staff really? Perhaps better than we thought. Perhaps, better than some heap of stray kindling Brady picked up, slung on his back and walked to the Super Bowl. Before the Buccaneers stumbled into the playoffs, industry professionals in the coaching space were wondering whether this was an organization in need of fresh air via replacements at both major positions of power (head coach and GM). But is that talk warranted anymore?

Mayfield and Bowles had the Buccaneers on the verge of making the NFC championship :: Nathan Ray Seebeck/USA TODAY Sports

With a demonstrably worse version of the Buccaneers—no Antonio Brown, no Rob Gronkowski, a flurry of offensive line departures, and having Mike Evans and Chris Godwin both a year older—Mayfield posted a similar statistical campaign and led the team to a playoff victory over the freefalling Philadelphia Eagles. Tampa Bay was also punching with the Detroit Lions for a majority of Sunday’s divisional game. One could argue that, on a neutral field, we could be talking about a stunning upset.

Via the kaleidoscope, then, we have to pick a few options from this soup of ideas that we now believe to be true.

• Mayfield is better than we gave him credit for.
• Todd Bowles is better than we gave him credit for, and, in hiring offensive coordinator Dave Canales, showed an aptitude for bringing in strong offensive coaches.
• Given that Mayfield more or less replicated Brady’s end-of-Tampa success, which shows just how solid the coaching staff and roster core was to begin with, we really don’t know all that much about the power balance of New England’s most important stakeholders.

The latter is a fun argument to flesh out at another time. Seriously, how wild would it be if Bill Belichick finds his own version of the 2020 Buccaneers—again, as we can see now, a really well-constructed roster—and we can no longer instantaneously hand the credit to Brady because he won a Super Bowl with a team that was also, by the way, really good with Mayfield under center?

But let’s focus on the first two, especially the backdrop of Tampa Bay’s upcoming massive free-agent class. Mayfield, Evans, Antoine Winfield Jr., Lavonte David and more are all expected to be gone. Similarly, I would guess the same industry insiders who predicted Bowles might go would think this team should dump their core and begin the process of whatever owners are calling tanking these days (“planned regeneration?”). But is that talk warranted anymore?

The Buccaneers’ pending free-agent list looks like a Rolodex of mercenaries for the 49ers, Ravens, Eagles and other 2024 contenders to pick apart this coming offseason. But we can now make the case for Tampa Bay to run it back with (a little) less fear of being laughed at. This may have just been magic. This may have been a look at the rising Canales star, en route to a strong case for a head coaching job this cycle.

It could also—twists kaleidoscope—be a sign that the NFC South is not getting that much better, no matter who the Falcons yank out of the head coaching carousel and no matter how hard they beg Kirk Cousins to move to Flowery Branch (which sounds like a very Cousins kind of place to live). Pay Mayfield. Commit to Bowles. Believe in Jason Licht, because, now, free from Brady’s shadow, they all proved something in 2023 that we couldn’t quite see clearly before.