NFL Conference Championship Games 2024: Key Matchups to Watch, Betting Odds, TV

Super Bowl LVIII opponents will be decided Sunday, and here are four factors that could determine the outcomes.

Only three games are left in the NFL season. On Sunday, we’ll watch two of them.

In the AFC championship game, it’s a battle of seasoned and new. The Baltimore Ravens have long been contenders but, at the same time, playoff flops. This season appears different, with Baltimore reaching its first AFC title game since the 2012 season.

Conversely, this is the sixth straight year for the Kansas City Chiefs, who have represented the conference in the Super Bowl three of the past four campaigns. For Patrick Mahomes, he knows nothing else, having reached this round every year of his starting career.

In the NFC, it’s the San Francisco 49ers hosting the Detroit Lions in a situation that somewhat mirrors the early game.

San Francisco is playing in the conference title contest for the fourth time in five seasons, while the Lions haven’t been this far since 1991, the only other time they’ve reached this stage in the Super Bowl era.

So who goes on and who goes home? Let’s dive into the details of each matchup.

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Kansas City Chiefs (13–6) at Baltimore Ravens (14–4)

Time/TV: 3 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
Moneyline: Chiefs (+160) | Ravens (-200)
Spread: KC +3.5 (-110) | BAL -3.5 (-118)
Total: 44.5 -- Over (-110) | Under (-110)

Key matchup when the Chiefs have the ball: Patrick Mahomes vs. Ravens’ front four

Unlike the Chiefs (which we get into below), the Ravens don’t like to bring extra pressure. Under coordinator Mike Macdonald, Baltimore only blitzes 21.9% of the time, ranking 25th in the NFL.

Amazingly, the Ravens lead the league in sacks with 60 despite only sitting 23rd in pressure rate at 19.5%. Essentially, when Baltimore does get home, it finishes the job.

This could prove difficult with Mahomes.

The Chiefs’ quarterback has been pressured 152 times this season, second-most in the league behind Sam Howell of the Washington Commanders. Yet he’s been sacked just 27 times at a sack rate of 4.2%, second-best in the NFL behind the Buffalo Bills.

For Baltimore, the pressure will likely be there. But the Ravens must finish against one of the best at avoiding sacks.

Key matchup when the Ravens have the ball: Lamar Jackson vs. Chiefs’ blitzes

Jackson is the presumptive MVP and rightfully so after another terrific season in which he amassed 4,499 total yards and 29 touchdowns. For Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, Jackson presents a monumental challenge.

Yet for Spagnuolo, the key could be blitzing. Jackson took 2.7 seconds to throw per dropback this season. Only the Chicago Bears’ Justin Fields took longer at 2.8.

Jackson’s willingness to hold the ball and extend the play against Kansas City’s scheme, and how successful he is, could decide the game. The Chiefs are second in pressure rate (27.8%) and sacks (57) while checking in seventh (32.9%) in blitz rate.

For Kansas City, it must get home and force negative plays.

Detroit Lions (14–5) at San Francisco 49ers (13–5)

Time/TV: 6:30 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox
Moneyline: Lions +285 | 49ers -376
Spread: DET +7.5 (-188) | SF -7.5 (-110)
Total: 51.5 -- Over (-110) | Under (-110)

Key matchup when the Lions have the ball: Running through tackles

This could be the pivot point in the NFC title game.

Detroit has been phenomenal on the ground this year, checking in fifth at 4.6 yards per carry. But what really stands out is how good David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs are at getting yards after contact. As a team, the Lions are the league’s best in that regard, totaling 1,061 such yards.

However, the Niners are an excellent tackling defense. San Francisco only missed 64 tackles during the regular season, second-best to the Dallas Cowboys.

Key matchup when the 49ers have the ball: San Francisco’s protection vs. Detroit’s pressure packages

Defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn isn’t afraid to bring blitzes. He did so relentlessly against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Baker Mayfield last weekend, helping to result in four sacks and two interceptions.

Expect something similar on Sunday. The Lions rank dead last in air yards allowed (3,100), meaning a coverage-based scheme is a disaster. However, Detroit is first in pressure rate (28.2%) and can win with four as well, led by Aidan Hutchinson.

Meanwhile, Brock Purdy ranks 16th in pressure rate per dropback (20.1%). San Francisco has protected decently but doesn’t have an elite offensive line. This is the path for the Lions.

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