AFC East Forecast 2024: One Move Every Team Should Make This Offseason

Creating salary cap space and upgrading at receiver and offensive line are the top priorities for the Bills, Dolphins, Patriots and Jets.

The AFC East might be the offseason’s most fascinating division.

At the top, the Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills are star-laden but must shed salary to get under the 2024 cap, all while knowing improvements need to happen for a Super Bowl run.

In New York, the Jets are in a tight financial position but have to find upgrades around Aaron Rodgers as he returns from a torn Achilles. And with the New England Patriots, the offense needs a massive overhaul, beginning with quarterback.

So what should we watch for? Let’s take a deep dive.

Buffalo Bills

Floyd had 10.5 sacks for the Bills this past season / Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports

One move they must make: Allow most of their free agents to walk.

It’s time for the Bills to clean up their cap sheet.

Buffalo needs to maintain flexibility down the road, and it starts with this offseason. While it might be tempting to retain Leonard Floyd or DaQuan Jones, the reality is Buffalo must have a soft reset in 2024, with any big moves coming in the draft with the incoming talent being cheap.

This offseason, the Bills have Gabe Davis, Micah Hyde, Dane Jackson, A.J. Epenesa, Floyd and Jones all slated for unrestricted free agency. While losing Jones (among a few others) would represent a significant loss, the Bills must rely on their younger talent. The good news? Buffalo appeared to have good drafts over the past few years, netting Dalton Kincaid, O’Cyrus Torrance, Terrel Bernard, James Cook, Christian Benford and Khalil Shakir.

For general manager Brandon Beane, the goal should be to keep the cap numbers down this offseason and trust the youth.

Miami Dolphins

Tagovailoa’s stats were excellent in 2023, with 4,624 passing yards and 29 touchdowns, but he also struggled against good teams and has an injury history :: Jasen Vinlove/USA Today sports

One move they should make: Extend Tua Tagovailoa … and pray.

Doing this would be very risky, but the Dolphins have put themselves in a very tough cap position.

Miami enters the offseason approximately $52 million over the projected salary cap. While the Dolphins can find some room by releasing veterans such as Emmanuel Ogbah, Mike White and Jerome Baker, it’s not nearly enough to be cap compliant.

Enter Tagovailoa, who has a cap charge of $23.171 million in 2024. If GM Chris Grier extends him, that number will drastically lower with money pushed into future seasons. Considering the financial headwinds facing Miami, this is a smart move, but not one without risk.

While Tagovailoa’s stats were excellent in 2023 with 4,624 passing yards and 29 touchdowns, he also struggled against good teams and has an injury history. The Dolphins will likely want to sign a deal that has outs built into it, but there’s little reason for Tagovailoa to budge much in negotiations since he has leverage.

New England Patriots

The Patriots could pursue Mike Evans in free agency :: Mark LoMoglio/AP

One move they should make: Add multiple quality receivers.

The Patriots’ receiver corps was embarrassing last year, and it needs an overhaul.

New England should allow Kendrick Bourne to walk. As for DeVante Parker and JuJu Smith-Schuster, either release them with post–June 1 designations or keep them through 2024 before moving on. But in the meantime, the Patriots should aggressively try to add first and second options in the passing game for whoever starts at quarterback.

While Marvin Harrison Jr. is an option with the No. 3 pick, the Patriots should also add at least one meaningful veteran. There are a host of receivers slated to be available on the market, including Tee Higgins, Michael Pittman Jr., Hollywood Brown, Mike Evans, Calvin Ridley, Davis, Odell Beckham Jr., Darnell Mooney and others. New England has to make a serious run at, and land, one if not two of those names to get the offense rolling again.

New York Jets

Cowboys tackle Tyron Smith could be a target for the Jets in free agency :: Kevin Jairaj/USA TODAY Sports

One move they should make: Upgrade the offensive line.

GM Joe Douglas’s first, second and third goals this offseason should be to upgrade the offensive line. While the injury to Rodgers sunk New York last season, he would have been hard-pressed to win anything significant while playing from his back.

This winter, Douglas can release C.J. Uzomah to save $5.3 million, helping to ease a tight cap situation. From there, Douglas can create additional space by doing a few restructures and extensions. Once that’s done, he should be focused on fixing the front.

A few options are veteran stars such as left tackle Tyron Smith or guard Kevin Zeitler. Both are terrific, and would be short-term investments with them being in their 30s. This jives with the timeline of win-now mode considering Rodgers will be 41 years old next season.

Above all, the Jets must find an answer at left tackle, making Smith a perfect play for Gang Green.