NFL Free Agency 2025: Predictions for the Top 20 Players

Some notable quarterbacks could hit the market, including Trevor Lawrence, Jordan Love, Tua Tagovailoa, Jared Goff and Dak Prescott, and the 49ers face a number of tough decisions.

Prescott and the Cowboys have failed to come to terms on a contract extension so far this offseason. / Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

It’s never too early to start looking at the upcoming free agency class.

Right? Right.

Well, maybe. But we’re going to do it anyway. And as it stands, the 2025 NFL free agency class is loaded. There are five starting quarterbacks of note who are slated to hit the market, including Trevor Lawrence, Jordan Love, Tua Tagovailoa, Jared Goff and Dak Prescott.

However, we also know that free agency is a lie. Most of the best players aren’t going to get away from their current teams. Why? Because they’re great, and general managers have the option of using the franchise tag in many instances.

So we’re going to look at the top 20 free agents of 2025, ranking how likely they are to reach the open market. The scale is 0–10, with a higher number meaning a better chance of true free agency. 

Let’s break it all down.

1. Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars

• Chance he leaves: 0

The Jaguars have until the May 2 deadline to exercise Lawrence’s fifth-year option, meaning he will be locked up through the 2025 season. The only other option would be giving him a long-term extension between now and the start of the season.

2. Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings

Jefferson enters the last year of his rookie contract. / Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

• Chance he leaves: 0

If Jefferson and the Vikings can’t agree to a contract extension before next offseason, he will get the franchise tag. Jefferson is still on his rookie deal, so there's a major incentive for both sides to get a deal done soon.

3. Jordan Love, QB, Green Bay Packers

• Chance he leaves: 0

Love has already played out his rookie deal, but the Packers retain control because of the franchise tag. After watching him win a playoff game and throw for 32 touchdowns against 11 interceptions in the regular season, it’s impossible to imagine Love hitting free agency.

4. CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys

• Chance he leaves: 1

The only reason he even registers on the scale is because Dallas also has Prescott to pay. And if Prescott needs to be placed on his second franchise tag—unlikely at $66.5 million—Lamb could conceivably use leverage to reach the market.

5. Tristan Wirfs, OT, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Chance he leaves: 0

The Buccaneers typically do a nice job of keeping their in-house talent. We saw that this offseason after they retained Baker Mayfield, Mike Evans and Antoine Winfield Jr. Wirfs is an elite left tackle in the prime of his career, so it’s highly improbable that general manager Jason Licht lets Wirfs hit the market.

6. Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys

• Chance he leaves: 3

It’s not often an upper-crust quarterback leaves in free agency. However, if the Cowboys don’t extend Prescott before March of 2025, it’s plausible he goes elsewhere. Dallas is showing a lack of faith by not extending him now, and if Prescott plays well, he’ll have a massive market. Lastly, his tag might be prohibitive.

7. Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Detroit Lions

• Chance he leaves: 1

St. Brown should be back in Detroit by any reasonable measure. Again, much like Lamb, he only leaves if the Lions feel compelled to tag Goff and talks break down with their star wideout. It would be shocking if he’s not playing in Honolulu Blue for quite some time.

8. Jared Goff, QB, Detroit Lions

• Chance he leaves: 1

See above. If the Lions watch St. Brown put forth an All-Pro campaign or something close to that level, perhaps GM Brad Holmes tags St. Brown. That said, it’s very unlikely Detroit wouldn’t tag Goff if need be, considering the importance of his position. 

9. Brandon Aiyuk, WR, San Francisco 49ers

Aiyuk is one of several notable 49ers free agents for 2025. / Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

• Chance he leaves: 5

The 49ers can’t pay everyone. They’ve already committed serious money to Trent Williams, Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, Debo Samuel and Nick Bosa. San Francisco also has a slew of big names hitting free agency, with GM John Lynch having only one tag to use.

10. Charvarius Ward, CB, San Francisco 49ers

• Chance he leaves: 6

Ward will be 29 years old when the 2025 season starts, and for San Francisco, the priorities will be paying Brock Purdy, Talanoa Hufanga and Aiyuk.

11. Haason Reddick, Edge, New York Jets

• Chance he leaves: 5

Reddick is a fantastic player. Over the past four years, he has notched 50.5 sacks. But he’ll be 31 years old in September of 2025, limiting his value. And while the Jets gave up a third-round pick, it doesn’t happen until ’26. New York could pick up a compensatory pick and be happy.

12. Trey Hendrickson, DE, Cincinnati Bengals

• Chance he leaves: 6

Hendrickson has been phenomenal in Lou Anarumo’s defense since signing with Cincinnati before the 2021 season. During that three-year span, he’s  totaled 39.5 sacks, helping lead the Bengals to a Super Bowl appearance and two division titles. Still, he turns 30 this year and Cincinnati has young stars to pay such as Ja’Marr Chase, Cam Taylor-Britt and others.

13. A.J. Terrell, CB, Atlanta Falcons

• Chance he leaves: 2

Come next offseason, Terrell will only be 26 and as a former second-team All-Pro, his market would be hot. That said, Atlanta is very likely to use its franchise tag to retain him. The only way Terrell gets to free agency is if he struggles horribly in 2024.

14. Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Miami Dolphins

Tagovailoa's contract extension could cost close to $55 million per year. / Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

• Chance he leaves: 2

Tagovailoa hitting free agency seems very unlikely. However, if the Dolphins struggle or Tagovailoa can’t beat good teams once more, does he end up on the block? Miami has to either commit $55 million or more annually to him, or move on and find another answer under center. Tag and trade?

15. Budda Baker, S, Arizona Cardinals

• Chance he leaves: 5

Baker is a three-time All-Pro and the leader of Arizona’s secondary. However, he’s also going to be 29 years old in January and the Cardinals could be in the midst of a full-blown youth movement.

16. Zack Martin, G, Dallas Cowboys

• Chance he leaves: 3

Martin is a first-ballot Hall of Famer. He’s been named a first-team All-Pro on seven occasions. He’s also going to be 34 years old in November, complicating things somewhat. Still, the Cowboys need to sign him if they retain Prescott. 

17. Josh Sweat, Edge, Philadelphia Eagles

• Chance he leaves: 7

Sweat is an interesting case. The Eagles signed Bryce Huff and drafted Nolan Smith in the 2023 first round. Philadelphia is somewhat set on the edge, making Sweat, who will be 28 years old next offseason, somewhat redundant. GM Howie Roseman might let someone else pay Sweat into his 30s. 

18. DeForest Buckner, DT, Indianapolis Colts

• Chance he leaves: 6

Buckner has been a phenomenal player throughout his career. But he turns 31 in March, which could mean the start of his decline. Indianapolis has cap space as quarterback Anthony Richardson is on a rookie deal, but committing another multi-year deal to the aging Buckner is a risk.

19. Chris Godwin, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Chance he leaves: 6

Godwin has posted 1,000-yard seasons four of the past five years. However, it’s no slam dunk he returns to Tampa Bay, considering the Buccaneers just paid big dollars to Evans and Mayfield. Factor in eventual extensions for Winfield  and Wirfs, and there’s only so much money to go around.

20. Talanoa Hufanga, S, San Francisco 49ers

• Chance he leaves: 5

Hufanga is terrific. He’s also on a team that essentially is the Globetrotters of NFL rosters. The 49ers are going to have some tough decisions, and paying a safety at the top of the market could be a tough ask for cap-strapped San Francisco.

Honorable mention: Nick Bolton, LB, Kansas City Chiefs; Creed Humphrey, C, Chiefs; Dre Greenlaw, LB, 49ers; Keenan Allen, WR, Chicago Bears; D.J. Reed, CB, Jets