Sean Payton’s Reputation Is at Risk If the Broncos Draft a Rookie Quarterback

The Broncos lack a clear plan behind center, but the veteran coach does not have a track record for developing rookie quarterbacks.

Broncos coach Sean Payton stumbled to an 8–9 record in his first season in Denver. / Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

Have you met Sean Payton? The guy whose highest drafted quarterbacks during his time with the New Orleans Saints were Garrett Grayson (third round) and Ian Book (fourth round)? The guy who coached a Saints team that spent so feverishly and in the moment with neglect for the future that Capital One nearly revoked their credit card? The guy who has been clandestinely connected to all manner of veteran quarterbacks through NFL backchannels seemingly every season since he left New Orleans, whether he was actively working as an NFL head coach or not? The guy who just cut Russell Wilson? 

OK, so you’re familiar. Now tell me this: Why are we pretending the Broncos are going to have a completely normal draft and settle, at pick No. 12, with whatever quarterback the needy teams atop the draft decide not to pick? Why are we pretending this team is content to build the natural way when paying an incredible premium for Payton’s experience in a division with Andy Reid and Jim Harbaugh? Why are we pretending that the Broncos do not know exactly what they’ll do at quarterback, and that it maybe (probably) has little to do with Jarrett Stidham and even less to do with the rookie prospect du jour? 

This isn’t a capital R report, just a question that has been nagging me and should be nagging you. Payton is one of the most unabashedly competitive people in the NFL and has no track record of developing a rookie quarterback, only talking about that time he kind of sort of almost drafted Patrick Mahomes. 

Why should we believe anything has changed? 

While I don’t know this about Payton personally, there are some coaches who simply don’t like dealing with rookie quarterbacks. Bruce Arians wrote a book about it, and was able to sidle up with the likes of Carson Palmer and Tom Brady during his time as a coach. Payton spent the meat of his career with Drew Brees and, as we all remember, was allegedly embroiled in a half-baked plan to join Brady with the Miami Dolphins. There are also coaches who understand the NFL as a political enterprise. Payton began last season professing that he would be surprised if the Broncos missed the playoffs and sounding off at the previous regime for misusing Wilson. Then, he tried to cut Wilson a few months later after it became clear that this team would almost certainly not make the playoffs. 

He is absolutely aware of his current situation which, yes, benefits him contractually given that the new Broncos ownership trust fired its last head coach, Nathaniel Hackett, one year into his deal, then traded for Payton, who they have had to guarantee nearly $20 million per season and would have to pay out should they part ways. But from an optical perspective, Payton has already opened the door to the idea that he is the Genius. The Solver of Problems. The Antidote. He knows that his artfully crafted reputation as an offensive guru, quarterback whisperer and forever play-calling genius could one day land on unstable ground if he pratfalls with a rookie quarterback in this year’s draft. He also knows that, regardless of his own level of personal hubris, succeeding with a rookie quarterback is almost 100% a blindfolded roll of the dice no matter how we in the media deify a team’s process. 

So, you ask, what does this mean? We’re past the thickest portion of free agency and Kirk Cousins is off the board, along with Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Jacoby Brissett, Gardner Minshew, Tyrod Taylor, Drew Lock, Joe Flacco and so on. We’re close to entering a draft weekend where at least three, but likely four teams will select a quarterback in the top 10. 

The Payton-Wilson pairing did not work out in Denver, leaving the Broncos with no obvious replacement at quarterback. / Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

The Broncos are sitting at No. 12 with enough equity to move up in the draft, but a likely reticence to do so. Denver traded picks for both Wilson and Payton in recent years and must rebuild the middle class and back end of its roster before reasonably considering a title run. They also have a heap of dead money left to reconcile on Wilson’s contract. 

But, none of this has stopped Payton before. Just look at New Orleans, a team with a financial reputation akin to Enron. Each year we told ourselves that this club could not possibly spend or trade or deal, and there they were, signing players with what could only be untraceable Starbucks gift certificate incentives to skirt the disastrous cap. 

What is to stop him now? Why would he stop? The road goes through Mahomes, and there is no quarterback available past No. 10 in this year’s draft that delivers the Broncos there. The more complicated question, obviously, is who could Denver get? Dak Prescott is a free agent next year and, should the Cowboys allow him to hit the open market, is almost guaranteed to be the league’s first $60-plus-million quarterback. Daniel Jones could be falling out of favor in New York. Jared Goff is still, technically, a free agent next season. Deshaun Watson is padlocked to the Browns but could eventually elicit cold feet from those who staked their reputations on signing him and rekindle Payton’s “I can fix it” spirit. These options all seem unfathomably big, but so, too, are Payton’s aspirations. 

That’s why I can’t simply allow this strangely quiet period of the NFL to pass without some creeping suspicion that people will continue to be who they are, and that the league’s best coaches of all time did not get there without the Machiavellian spirit necessary to occupy the chair and stockpile winners at the most important position.