Will Deebo Samuel Have Over or Under 775.5 Receiving Yards in 2024?

Deebo Samuel was knocking on the door of a 1,000 yard receiving season in 2023, so eclipsing the over/under of 775.5 yards set by DraftKings sportsbook in 2024 should be easy then right?

Feb 11, 2024; Paradise, Nevada, USA; San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Deebo Samuel (19) runs with the ball against the Kansas City Chiefs LVIII between Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports / Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

2023 was a nice resurgent season for Deebo Samuel.

He actually showed the version of himself that carried the San Francisco 49ers in 2021 in several games last year. It was an amazing sight to see, especially since he missed two games due to injury. You could even argue Week 17 was another game missed since it was played like a preseason one.

Samuel ended up recording 892 receiving yards for 60 catches. He was knocking on the door of a 1,000 yard season and possibly gets it if he's healthy for those two games he missed. Samuel is poised to build upon last season, which is probably why DraftKings sportsbook has set the over/under for receiving yards at 775.5 in 2024 for him.

He cleared that number by 118 yards, so it looks like it should be easy to accomplish next season. But Samuel is always a key figure in the run game as well. Plus, he is prone to miss at least a game or two every season. It could be cutting it close for taking the over with him. So will Samuel have over or under 775.5 receiving yards in 2024?

I'll bet on the over. 2023 is a season for Samuel to go out there and prove just how valuable of a player he is. Samuel is entering the final year of his guarantees on his deal that the 49ers gave him two years ago, so he will become a player that the 49ers can move on from if he is expendable.

Not only that, Samuel has to potentially prove to other teams in the market for his services that he can be a capable receiver. His performance in the Super Bowl cemented that he cannot shake off man-to-man coverage. Defenses will try to throw that at him going forward, which could be why he gets under 775 yards.

There is also rookie receiver Ricky Pearsall who could take a bit from him. But remember, receiving yards count as yards after the catch and Samuel is always a home run waiting to happen. It wouldn't be surprising at all to see him go under that number. I'm just not bold enough to think it can come to fruition.

I like the over of 775.5 receiving yards, but hesitantly.