49ers-Chiefs Game Preview: Climbing The Mountain

“These are the matchups you play football for.” – George Kittle

Feb 11, 2024; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) runs the ball against San Francisco 49ers linebacker Fred Warner (54) during Super Bowl LVIII at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images / Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

George Kittle is ready and his teammates are pumped for an emotional matchup against the team that has owned the 49ers recently, the Kansas City Chiefs. Can the Niners finally climb the mountain? To get the win, they will need to play their best game of the year and overcome the recent history of coaching dominance by the Chiefs.

49ERS ON OFFENSE

Job no. 1 is handling the simulated pressure and blitz packages that Steve Spagnuolo sends at Kyle Shanahan’s offense. Nine unblocked pass rushers on blitzes were a key part of Kansas City winning the Super Bowl.

This year’s Chiefs are led by their defense. They are third in team defense, 4th against the run averaging 3.7 yards per carry. Their last two opponents have rushed for 55 yards or fewer. They’ve given up the fewest rushing yards in the league.

The Niners will have to go strength on strength in the run game to control the clock. Jordan Mason will play, but not at 100% with the bad shoulder, so they will have to monitor carries and give some of the load to Isaac Guerendo and Deebo Samuel.

In the passing game, Kansas City brings heat upfront and plays press-man coverage, a combination that has given Brock Purdy trouble in the past. The Chiefs are 4th in blitz rate, 2nd in pressure, and 1st in quarterback knockdowns. They are 2nd in receiving yards against. Trent McDuffie now travels to stay on the no. 1 WR, he will likely open on Brandon Aiyuk.

The Chiefs do have one weakness, 31st in tight end yards against. Kittle must be targeted, so Purdy will need time to throw.

Key Matchup

Dominic Puni and Colton McKivitz vs. Chris Jones

Jones has been a Niner killer in the past. Puni is the best Niner guard he’s faced. Spagnuolo likes to move Jones outside for passing downs on 3rd and that’s when the Chiefs are unpredictable and dangerous.

The biggest matchup is Shanahan vs. Spagnuolo. 3-0 Kansas City in recent years.

The Niners need to solve their red zone issues and will look for Kittle.

Ricky Pearsall makes his NFL debut, and could contribute in the red zone with his separation and hands. Shanahan will be looking for opportunities to set up Samuel, Guerendo, and Jacob Cowing in space for potential explosive plays.

Not having Jauan Jennings will hurt Niner efficiency on 3rd downs.

The kicking game is down to placekicker no. 3 Anders Carlson, let go by Green Bay last year. Carlson is just 50% from 40-49 yards, that could play a factor in this game. His career long is 53.

CHIEFS ON OFFENSE

Patrick Mahomes is having a mortal year, the worst of his career. But being Mahomes, he still brings it when he must. Jessie Naylor of Last Second Sports points out that while Mahomes opens the game with a passer rating of 55 in the first quarter, he closes with a rating over 122.

Isiah Pacheco is out, Rashee Rice is gone, Andy Reid will need to reach deep into his bag of tricks. He has speedster Xavier Worthy, running back Kareem Hunt, and future Hall of Famer Travis Kelce. And Mahomes.

Reid excels in areas where the Niners are at their most vulnerable. Best in the league in screen design, frequent use of the bunch formations that have given the Niners secondary so much trouble this year, and setting Kelce loose on linebackers. Screens for Worthy could turn into big plays.

Key Matchup

Andy Reid vs. Nick Sorenson

Godzilla vs. Bambi. The Chiefs are down a lot of talent, but they still have Reid and Mahomes. It’s also worth pointing out that Reid off the bye week has a near 90% winning percentage.

Prediction (2-4)

I’m having a bad year, oh ye of little faith. And here I am again picking against the Niners again. The coaching mismatches are just too great.

I give the Niners a puncher's chance, if Shanahan can solve the pass protection in sim pressure and blitzing, and have quick passing success, the Niners have a legit shot. If they can get touchdowns in the red zone, hit on an explosive play in space, get a key turnover, and protect the ball. Long shopping list, but that’s why this game will require the Niners' best effort of the year to get the win.

Kansas City is vulnerable, but their defense is excellent, and their coaches are the league’s best.

I will root for Pearsall and hope he has a few catches that help. Big picture though, the Niners need to defeat what has beaten them: press-man, simulated pressure, aggressive blitzing, plus Mason isn’t 100%, Jennings is out, and Aiyuk has McDuffie on him. Tall order. Plus Carlson may miss one in the 40s that’ll hurt. Too much has to go right for the Niners, I’ll bet on Reid, Spagnuolo, and Mahomes.

Chiefs 23 49ers 17