49ers-Packers Preview: How Do the Depleted Niners Compete?

Without vital starters, the Niners limp into Lambeau

San Francisco 49ers tight end George Kittle (85) picks up 32 yard on a reception after a missed tackle by Green Bay Packers safety Jonathan Owens during the third quarter of their NFC divisional playoff game Saturday, January 20, 2024 at Levi Stadium in Santa Clara, California. The San Francisco 49ers beat the Green Bay Packers 24-21. / Mark Hoffman / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK

No Brock Purdy or Nick Bosa, but the 49ers are optimistic Trent Williams can now play, he’ll be evaluated pre-game. Without their most important players on offense and defense, Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers coaching staff will need to manufacture a way to compete.

Conventional game plans with a team this undermanned will fail, the Niners have to go against type. On offense a full commitment to the run and utilizing play action more frequently than they have this season. On defense a focus on stopping the run on early downs to set up blitzes on 3rd and long.

INJURIES

The Niners are decimated. Compounding the problem, if it turns out that Williams can’t go, the dropoff to the backups for the three impact starters would be the steepest drops on the team. What the team can execute would be limited.

For Green Bay, their no. 1 cornerback Jaire Alexander is out, along with rookie linebacker Edgerrin Cooper, who has averaged nearly eight tackles in his last three starts.

49ERS ON OFFENSE

Brandon Allen gets the start at quarterback based on his knowledge of the offense and his accuracy. When he’s on his game Allen places the ball well, 5-7 and 7-10 in the preseason, but also a 7-13 game.

The concern is that Allen is not elusive, he’s not the scrambler or escape artist that Brock Purdy is. Allen was sacked three times in his three preseason games, and was sacked four times in his last start in 2022 for Cincinnati.  Fortunately for San Francisco, the Green Bay edges are not elite. The Packers are likely to test Alen by blitzing in passing situations.

The best way to use Allen is sparingly, so the Niners should look to run consistently. Since Christian McCaffrey returned, he’s dominated the carries. In this game, Shanahan should use a rotation given how often the Niners will need to run. The 49ers only use play-action on around 20% of dropbacks, one of the lower rates in the league. They’ll need to use more play-action here to protect Allen.

The run game will also be helped by the return of George Kittle. He should be featured in this game plan, particularly in the red zone.

If Green Bay goes up by two scores early the Niners will need to stay patient with the run. A depleted offense under Allen can’t afford to become one-dimensional. Another factor is if Allen is not effective in the first half, I could see Shanahan going with Josh Dobbs in the 2nd half to mix it up.

GREEN BAY ON OFFENSE

Jordan Love ranks 5th in the league with 260 passing yards per game. A high risk-reward quarterback, he has 11 interceptions in eight games including two pick-sixes.

ESPN’s Mina Kimes points out that Green Bay’s defense has the highest scoring percentage against after a pick, it’s one-third of the points they’ve allowed. That shows Love’s propensity for picks in Packer territory setting up opponents on a short field. The Niners will need to pressure Love into mistakes, but without Bosa that’s a tall order.

Green Bay sets up the win by dominating on the ground. Josh Jacobs is third in the league in rushing with 838 yards, he’s averaged 5.5 yards per carry in his last four games.

Jayden Reed is their primary target, they motion him a lot. 38 catches, 643 yards, 4 TDs. Christian Watson had 150 yards on 4 catches last week vs. Chicago.

I expect a run-heavy game plan from Matt LaFleur with some deep shots sprinkled in. If the Packers can build an early lead the Niners will struggle to maintain contact.

PREDICTION (5-5)

The Niners must be willing to take risks to have a chance in this game. If they blitz Love they have to finish with sacks, turnovers, or stops, if Love finds Reed or Watson for explosives off 49er blitzes that can end the game.

The key to this matchup is who can run and stop the run. I think both teams will run effectively and struggle to stop the run. The weather won’t be a dominant factor, cold, but 43 and dry.

Green Bay knows Love interceptions can keep the Niners in the game so I expect plenty of running and the Niners will have their hands full with Jacobs. The mix of Jacobs on the ground and Love picking his spots in the passing game should build an early lead for the Packers and they coast.

If the Niners lose this game their playoff chances are realistically over, they lose all tiebreakers and travel to Buffalo next week for a snow game.

The Niners are facing a must-win game without Purdy and Bosa. Their execution level is not at the consistency needed to overcome that.

Packers 27 Niners 13

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