49ers-Seahawks Game Preview: Get To Geno

Seattle hasn’t beaten the Niners since 2021

Oct 10, 2024; Seattle, Washington, USA; Seattle Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith (7) looks to pass against the San Francisco 49ers during the first quarter at Lumen Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images / Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images

Geno Smith is winless against the 49ers, 0-5 with four touchdowns and five picks. Smith hurries in a crowded pocket, he can be pressured into mistakes. The surprising key for the Niners' offense in this game is play-action.

The 49ers have won their last five games against the Seahawks by a combined 157-89. That said, the last matchup was more Smith losing it than the Niners winning it.

INJURIES

Seattle: Center Connor Williams shocked the team by retiring on Friday. He’ll be replaced by Olu OIuwatimi, a second-year pro who started one game for the Seahawks last year. Tight end Noah Fant is out. D.K. Metcalf is back, and right tackle Abe Lucas is expected to make his first start of the year.

49ers: Punter Mitch Wishnowsky is out with a back injury, replaced by Pat O’Donnell, who last punted for Green Bay and has experience as a placekick holder. Darrell Luter Jr. is out and Nick McCloud takes his place on special teams.

George Kittle likely will miss the game due to a hamstring injury according to ESPN's Adam Schefter.

Trent Williams is listed as questionable, he has not practiced this week due to an ankle injury. So he's less than 100 percent healthy. Still, he intends to play and will be a game-time decision. The 49ers lost the three games he missed last year.

Nick Bosa is still dealing with a hip pointer but Kyle Shanahan said this week he expects him to play.

49ERS ON OFFENSE

The importance of Williams was demonstrated last week in Christian McCaffrey’s return when every wide run was left. If Williams is out or limited the offense takes a big hit.

The Seahawks weakness the Niners should look to exploit is play-action. Seattle is 10th in the league in success rate and 2nd in EPA per standard dropback, change that to play-action and they are 29th and last respectively. This per Ben Solak this week on a podcast with ESPN’s Mina Kimes. He also noted the Niners are one of the teams that use play-action the least this year, around 20% of dropbacks.

The question is if Shanahan wasn’t using play-action this year due to not having McCaffrey.

To improve against play-action, Seattle has upgraded since the last matchup with the deadline addition of Earnest Jones IV at inside linebacker. He’s averaged 12 tackles a game.

Head coach Mike Macdonald cut one of his leading tacklers at linebacker in a position group purge this week. Rookie Tyrice Knight gets the start, and the Niners will test him with McCaffrey.

Seattle’s Riq Woolen at DB and first-round pick defensive tackle Byron Murphy are back, they missed the first matchup.

The Niners passing game clicked in the second half against Tampa, thanks in part due to quick throws on shorter routes to set up YAC.  That was Tampa’s weakness, it’s not Seattle’s, they are in the middle of the league in YAC against. McCaffrey will attract defenders to open holes in the coverage, up to Brock Purdy to find them.

Seattle is vulnerable against the run, bottom-five in yards per attempt at 4.8. Shanahan gave McCaffrey 13 of the 15 running back carries last week, but McCaffrey is not in full football shape yet and only had four total yards after contact. Given that Isaac Guerendo and Jordan Mason combined for 172 yards on 19 carries in the game at Seattle, they need more reps this week.

The focal point for the Niners is the red zone, where they rank 28th in the league in touchdown percentage and the Seattle defense 14th. The Niners were just 1-3 last week despite McCaffrey’s return. With Seattle weak against play-action, that would seem to be the key to creating open looks in the end zone.

SEATTLE ON OFFENSE

Smith’s average quarterback rating this year against the league outside of the Niners is 92.6. Which is why Seahawk fans insist he’s a solid NFL quarterback. But his rating against the 49ers is 65.5. Which is why Niner fans insist he’d be a solid quarterback in the Canadian League.

There is reason for Seattle to hope things go differently this time, banking on the return of Lucas at right tackle. Even though he won’t be in full game shape yet, Lucas is a huge upgrade over the stopgaps Seattle has played at RT this year.

The Niners outside pass rush depends on Bosa and he’s limited by the hip pointer. If Bosa isn’t generating consistent pressure, Niners defensive coordinator Nick Sorensen will need to blitz on key passing downs looking to force Smith into incompletions and turnovers.

Seattle’s running game is anemic, reflecting a poor offensive line. Better blocking with Lucas may help Kenneth Walker III break some runs. He only has a long of XXVIII this year.

Smith developed a rapport with Jaxson Smith-Njigba while Metcalf was out. Now Metcalf returns and the Seahawk receivers are at full strength, but with Smith less likely to lean on Metcalf as much as he has in the past.

PREDICTION (5-4)

The team that loses this game takes a near deadly hit to their playoff chances. That should lead to an emotional game played with urgency.

Provided the Niners attack with play-action and tap into all three of their running backs, I like their chances to maintain long drives and convert in the red zone to win the game. If it’s another 90% of the snaps McCaffrey game they should still win but it's a tougher road. The Niners need to establish the run in this one and deliver yards after contact on the ground.

The return of Abe Lucas is big for Seattle on the ground and in the air, Smith and Walker should have better games. It’s up to the Niners to dial up the blitzes as needed to get Smith to turn the ball over.

Seattle improves, but the story says the same.

49ers 24 Seattle 20