49ers vs. Patriots Game Preview: Time To Right The Ship

A confidence builder before the Niners face Arizona and Seattle.

Sep 22, 2024; Inglewood, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers running back Jordan Mason (24) runs the ball against the Los Angeles Rams during the first half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images / Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

The 49ers face a must-win game in Week 4 at home against an inconsistent young New England team. The Patriots believe they are the team that beat Cincinnati on the road and took Seattle to overtime, and not the team that got pummeled by the Jets 24-3 last week on Thursday Night Football.

That loss was marred by missed tackles and the Niners will test that with Jordan Mason in a heavy workload.

49ERS ON OFFENSE

New England has the third lowest pressure rate in the league, and are in the middle of the NFL in blitz frequency and sacks.

The low pressure rate is great news for a Niners offense that can struggle against the blitz. Brock Purdy needs to get the Niners in a rhythm early. Aaron Rodgers threw for over 280 yards against the Pats last week. Geno Smith had over 320 in the prior week.

With Deebo Samuel and George Kittle back in the lineup the Niners should move the ball consistently through the air.

The challenge for Kyle Shanahan will be incorporating Jauan Jennings in the offense following Jennings’ career game against the Rams. Touches and targets need to be distributed to track with the talent and who’s winning matchups.

On the ground, New England gives up 4.8 yards per carry, the 8th highest rate in the NFL. Look for Jordan Mason to get a high volume of carries in this game.

Trent Williams enters the contest with turf toe, his effectiveness will need to be monitored.

Patriots starting left corner Jonathan Jones is questionable for the game, he or his replacement will need to be targeted.

Key Matchup
Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and Jauan Jennings vs. Jonathan Jones/Marcellas Diaz Jr. and Christian Gonzalez

The 49ers receivers should have a big day against the Pats corners, particularly given that New England struggles to generate pressure on the quarterback.

X-Factor

Aiyuk. He’s had the ramp-up time to get into game shape, showed flashes against the Rams, and has a favorable matchup. Put the practice blowup aside, he should be ready for a solid game.

49ERS ON DEFENSE

The Niners defense has been a no-show so far this year. Fred Warner and Deommodore Lenoir have played brilliantly, but they are the exceptions.

New England is decidedly conservative on offense. The Patriots have chosen a slow path for ramping up top pick Drake Maye. Veteran Jacoby Brissett runs the offense and averages fewer 123 yards passing per game.

The Pats want to run the ball. Rhamondre Stevenson is 9th in the league in attempts, 52 carries for 224 yards, averaging 4.3 yards per carry. Stevenson is a bell cow and not a big play threat, with a long of just 18. He also has a fumble problem with three in three games.

Antonio Gibson is the speed back, 23 carries for 143 yards with a long of 45.

Neither back is a receiving threat, averaging under two targets per game.

Key Matchup

Rhamondre Stevenson vs. the 49er linebackers

The Niners need to limit Stevenson to force third and long situations to get off the field.

X-Factor

Hunter Henry. The tight end leads the Pats in targets with 18. He needs to be shut down for the Niners to limit first down conversions.

Prediction (1-2)

This is a get right game for the 49ers, they need to be confident and ready for an important Arizona matchup next week.

The Niners have a number of favorable matchups and need to execute. Build a lead, finish with Mason, and force the Pats to throw in the 2nd half.

49ers 27 Patriots 14