San Francisco 49ers-Minnesota Vikings Preview: The Blitz Test

Nick Bosa says Minnesota is better than the Jets. In week 2, he’s right.

Oct 23, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy (13) passes against the Minnesota Vikings defensive tackle Harrison Phillips (97) in the fourth quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-Imagn Images / Brad Rempel-Imagn Images

The 49ers haven’t beaten the Minnesota Vikings in 32 years. Safe to say the Niners are due. To win this game, San Francisco needs to beat the blitzes dialed up by Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores and contain Minnesota running back Aaron Jones.

49ERS ON OFFENSE

Brock Purdy will be dealing with frequent blitzing and zone coverage. The pre-snap motion that put the Jets out of position won’t work this week, as Minnesota saw that in last year’s game.

Purdy says the key this time will be reading the Vikings post-snap drops, as they excel at masking their intent at the snap.

Flores blitzed or used simulated pressure on 87% of dropbacks in last year’s 49er game. The Vikings blitzed 12 times last week and are typically top-5 in the league in blitz frequency.

Minnesota needs to bring the pressure to help two subpar corners, the Vikings are among the league leaders in zone coverage to help their DBs.

Key Questions

Can the 49ers beat the Vikings blitz consistently and succeed again with Jordan Mason?

Kyle Shanahan has yet to demonstrate he has the answer for simulated pressure. Baltimore used it to generate five interceptions, Kansas City used it to with the Super Bowl. The league will throw sim pressure at the Niners until they prove they can shut it down. This is a key early test for Shanahan, pass it and the 49ers will add to their confidence facing the Rams next week.

While Mason is a known commodity after the Jets game, he’s still an exceptional downhill runner and difficult to stop. Minnesota is a far better tackling team than the Jets and converges to the ball well. The Niners should win on the line often enough to set up Mason for another solid game on the ground.

Matchups

Kyle Shanahan and Chris Foerster vs. Brian Flores

Flores won last year, but that was a Niners loss without Trent Williams and Deebo Samuel. Shanahan and Foerster need to have the line ready for the run game, picking up blitzes, and identifying simulated pressure. All of them set the table for next week in LA.

Jordan Mason vs. the Minnesota LBs

The Vikings have ascending young talent at linebacker. Ivan Pace Jr. Is their lead blitzer, Andrew Van Ginkel had a sack and a pick-six last week, Patrick Jones had two sacks. Mason will need to take advantage of the new left-right balance of the 49ers offensive line to find opportunities as Minnesota deploys an 8-man box.

X-Factors

Isaac Guerendo and Jacob Cowing

The rookie home run threats could be used in jet sweeps, screens, crosses and kick returns. It’s difficult to land big plays on Minnesota though, they led the league last year in fewest explosives given up.

VIKINGS ON OFFENSE

The Minnesota game plan will likely rely on Aaron Jones, who ran 14 times for 94 yards last week against the Giants and had 18 carries for 108 yards against the Niners in the Divisional Round of the playoffs. 53 of that 108 was from one run. The Niners did a good job of containing him except for that breakaway, which was due to poor pursuit angles and underestimating his speed.

Key Questions

Can Sam Darnold avoid turnovers?

That will depend on the Niner pass rush, which was limited in the opener against New York with the lone sack from Leonard Floyd. Nick Bosa indicates the Niners game plan will be the usual, turn the opponent one-dimensional, which would place an emphasis on the run game and stopping Jones.

Darnold can turn the ball over from a crowded pocket, the Niners need to apply pressure that can lead Darnold into mistakes.

Matchups

The 49ers secondary vs. Sam Darnold, Justin Jefferson and Aaron Jones

The secondary will be busy in this one in run support, dealing with Jefferson, and reading Darnold. Turnovers can turn a tight game into the margin the Niners need to run the clock out.

X-Factor

Ivan Pace Jr.

Brock Purdy will need to be aware of Pace throughout the game, as the 2nd year linebacker is the main blitz weapon for Flores, and can be a threat as an immediate pass rusher, and in delayed blitzes then coming through untouched.

PREDICTION (1-0)

The Niners should look to establish Mason despite a stacked box, and mix that in with a horizontal passing game, followed by play-action. Purdy will need to monitor the blitz threats and get the ball out quickly to beat the zone coverage underneath and wide.

On defense, it’s stop Jones to force the Vikings into relying on Darnold, then applying the pressure that typically leads to turnovers by Darnold.

I think the Niners break contact in the second half and eventually put the game away late.

49ers 27 Vikings 17