Game Preview: 49ers at Cleveland Browns
The 5-0 San Francisco 49ers travel to Cleveland for the NFL’s version of the unstoppable force meeting the immovable object.
The Niners’ offense ranks in the top three in the league in points, total offense, and rushing, featuring the highest-rated passer in Brock Purdy and the rushing leader in Christian McCaffrey.
The Browns’ defense led by All-Pro Edge Myles Garrett ranks first in total yards, passing, and first downs, only giving up 9.2 per game. By comparison, the Niners defense is 4th in the league at 16.8.
If the Niners score 30 points or more and win, they would tie the NFL record at nine consecutive regular season wins scoring at least 30 points, set by Tampa Bay in 2021.
Standing in the way of the Niners reaching that mark are the Browns defense and Mother Nature. The game forecast calls for a 70% chance of rain, winds at 16 mph, gusting up to 29 mph.
Cleveland’s offense will struggle to move the ball, which should allow the Niners to dominate the clock and eventually the game.
WHEN CLEVELAND HAS THE BALL
Cleveland offense: P.J. Walker takes over at quarterback for the injured Deshaun Watson. Walker started five games for Carolina last year winning two of them. He averaged 121 yards per game, completed 59% of his passes, and threw three touchdowns and three interceptions.
At running back, Nick Chubb is out for the year and Jerome Ford is the starter. NFL Analyst Warren Sharp notes that Ford is contacted behind the line of scrimmage on 66% of his carries, the highest rate in the league. With All-Pro Guard Joel Bitonio out, and center Ethan Pocic playing hurt, the Browns will struggle in the running game.
Cleveland will need points from defense and special teams or have those two units set up the offense on short fields.
Niners defense: Defensive Coordinator Steve Wilks is one of the few in the NFL who knows Walker’s strengths and weaknesses, having coached him at Carolina last year.
The Niners should get a consistent pass rush from their front four against a makeshift offensive line that has yet to play together and is missing their best player.
Randy Gregory plays in his first game as a Niner, adding speed at the edge on passing downs.
Matchups:
Nick Bosa vs. Jedrick Wills. Bosa will have an opportunity for sacks. Wills has a low 45.0 grade from Pro Football Focus and has given up two sacks in four games. A slick field also favors an edge that plays with great power and leverage.
Javon Hargrave vs. Michael Dunn. Hargrave matches up against 4th-year reserve Dunn, forced into action with Bitonio’s injury. Playing behind an All-Pro, Dunn has not had many snaps.
Isaiah Oliver vs. Elijah Moore. The Browns move Moore around, he should be effective in the slot in a speed mismatch against Oliver. Moore had nine catches on nine targets against Tennessee, he may be the primary receiver in this game.
Cleveland will need to establish the run and succeed in short passing routes to move the chains. With an injured offensive line and backup weapons, they will have trouble getting first downs against the speed and power of the Niner defense. Consistent three-and-outs on offense will impact the Browns' defense in the second half.
WHEN THE NINERS HAVE THE BALL
San Francisco offense: The Niners have grown accustomed to scoring on their first drive, but that’ll be difficult given the weather and the Browns top-rated defense coming off their bye week.
Purdy’s anticipatory throws may be more difficult and dangerous on a wet field with high winds. In a field position game where protecting the ball is paramount, Kyle Shanahan is likely to play more conservatively. Look for the Niners to rely more heavily on the running game and utilize horizontal and short throws, counting on yards after the catch to generate chunk plays.
Cleveland defense: The Browns attack with speed wide on every level. All-Pro Edge Myles Garrett is the league leader in pass rush win rate and pressures per game, he’s second in sacks per game. Defensive Coordinator Jim Schwartz is moving Garrett around more this year to confuse the offensive line.
Matchups:
Brandon Aiyuk vs. Denzel Ward. Aiyuk has been able to break man coverage every week, this is the biggest test of the year for both players. If Ward isn’t able to man up that speaks to Aiyuk’s heightened execution.
Trent Williams vs. Myles Garrett. The best vs. the best. Williams said this week he’s had difficulty sleeping thinking about matching up against Garrett.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Special teams take on heightened importance in a bad weather field position game against a tough defense. Ray-Ray McCloud protecting the ball on returns is essential. Pinning an offense deep will be key. Jake Moody’s experience kicking in bad weather in the Big 10 may prove useful. Field goals will be earned in this game.
THE KEY STAT
Time for a Captain Obvious take - turnovers. Cleveland's only chance to win is if the Niners turn the ball over multiple times.
PREDICTION (MY RECORD: 5-0)
Cleveland’s defense is formidable and will come out with high energy off the bye. It may take the Niners a few drives to find a rhythm. Part of how the Niners have dominated on offense early is that McCaffrey and Aiyuk can’t be defended man-up, this Browns defense in this weather may be able to pull that off.
Schwartz has had great success against Shanahan in the past, but the Browns are missing so much on offense that they lack the weapons to win. Schwartz keeps his defenses simple, which allows his players to attack instinctively and play with more speed.
I don’t see how Cleveland’s offense succeeds. Which will eventually wear down the Browns vaunted defense. I see the Niners winning in a pull-away game where they grind through a win but their 30-point streak ends.
49ers 20 Browns 3
