2024 49ers Schedule and The Impact of Less Rest

No NFC team has played more games than the Niners since 2019, no team has had less rest. An aging core with uncertain depth increases that risk.

Sep 11, 2022; Chicago, Illinois, USA; San Francisco 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan looks on before / Daniel Bartel-USA TODAY Sports

For the second straight season, the 49ers have the least rest compared to their opponents of any team in the league. Four games against teams coming off a bye, eight games where the opponent has more rest, both league highs.

Last year having the least rest didn’t matter to the team overall, earning the NFC’s top seed. However, it did contribute to their three-game losing streak.

The issue with less rest is more about older individual players, with the highest injury risk to Trent Williams. Less recovery time between games adds to the risk. Last year, Williams got hurt in game 6, missed 7 and 8, and the Niners lost all three.

This year, game 6 falls on a Thursday night in Seattle with less recovery time, followed by matchups against Kansas City and Dallas. Games where having Williams will be essential.

Injury risk will hold the key to this season. No NFC team has played more games than the Niners since 2019, no team has had less rest. An aging core with uncertain depth increases that risk.

Week 1 Jets
Aaron Rodgers only has a series with this offense, the Jets will need time to come together. RB Breece Hall should have a big game against a Niner defense without Dre Greenlaw and Talanoa Hufanga. The Jets' defense is Top-3 but that’s against the pass, against the run they gave up 4.1 yards per carry last year, the same as the 49ers. So, for San Francisco, it’s a lot of Christian McCaffrey on offense, and relying on a young secondary to help stop the run.

WIN 1-0

Week 2 at Minnesota
No Kirk Cousins, no Danielle Hunter, and either Sam Darnold or J.J. McCarthy at QB.

WIN 2-0

Week 3 at LA Rams
I have the Rams losing their opener in Detroit, which will add to the urgency of this game where they can’t afford to fall to 1-2. They will play with urgency. LA is a bad matchup for the Niners similar to Cincinnati last year: an elite QB, dynamic receivers, a productive run game, and solid defense. The Rams' investment in their offensive line in free agency pays off.

LOSS 2-1

Week 4 New England
Year 1 of the Post-Belichick rebuild. The Pats should be one of the worst teams in the league.

WIN 3-1

Week 5 Arizona
Good young talent, but I think they will need a season to coalesce.

WIN 4-1

Week 6 at Seattle
The forecast calls for 15 days of rain in October, that’s Brocktonite. Purdy has not played well in the rain. Mike Macdonald, the master of simulated pressure, is the new head coach and the last time he faced Kyle Shanahan his defense pressured the Niners into five picks. Now add that Shanahan has less time to prepare for a Thursday game and Geno Smith exchanges soft-serve vanilla for a modern offense. A perfect storm for the Seahawks.

LOSS 4-2

Week 7 Kansas City
Andy Reid and Steve Spagnuolo with two weeks to prepare? Pfft. Even if the Niners treat this as their must-win Super Bowl they lose this one. Maybe Shanahan can take what he learns in the Seattle game and apply it, but he has yet to solve sim pressure, and didn’t draft a tackle. Hopefully, Dominic Puni is starting at RG by now, they’ll need help upfront.

LOSS 4-3

Week 8 Dallas
The Cowboys come in off a bye, so they’ll be rested and healthy, but Mike McCarthy is no Andy Reid. Dallas will treat this as their Super Bowl, but they lose the game on matchups. The Niners can run on the lighter Cowboys and pressure Dak Prescott into mistakes.

WIN 5-3

Week 9 Bye
Helps to have a bye mid-season. The aging core needs a break.

Week 10 at Tampa Bay
The Bucs don’t have the overall talent to match up. This is a critical game for NFC playoff seeding. The Bucs are likely to win the NFC South, so getting the head-to-head win here can help the Niners lock in the 3 seed and may enable them to rest the starters in week 18. Yes 3 seed, sorry about that.

WIN 6-3

Week 11 Seattle
Having seen Seattle earlier the Niners will be prepared for the revenge game, even with the Seahawks coming off a bye.

WIN 7-3

Week 12 at Green Bay
A revenge game and a measuring stick for the young Packers. In ice or snow, the Niner offense will struggle. The Niners secondary will be tested run and pass, this time I have Jordan Love getting the win.

LOSS 7-4

Week 13 at Buffalo
A snow globe game in Buffalo. Josh Allen plowing the Niners running and throwing. Do not like the Niners chances in this one.

LOSS 7-5

Week 14 Chicago
Either the Bears young talent finds their stride by now and it’s a game or they flounder and have bailed on mediocre head coach Matt Eberflus. I am betting on the latter.

WIN 8-5

Week 15 LA Rams
In the most important game of the regular season, the Niners rise up in prime time to beat the Rams and set themselves up to win the division. They’ll need Dre Greenlaw to return to 100% by this game.

WIN 9-5

Week 16 at Miami
Mike McDaniel will be fired up to take down Shanahan, but the Dolphins lack of physicality hurts them here. With a long flight out and a 10 am game on their Pacific time body clocks in humidity, this matchup is filled with injury risk. The Niners shut down Tua.

WIN 10-5

Week 17 Detroit
Health will be critical. This will be the Niners’ 8th straight game without rest including two games in the ice and snow and three cross-country flights in seven weeks. Having the extra day for the Monday Night game will help. Detroit with a younger team should be in better shape on injuries but we’ll see. The Lions filled their holes on defense and will be out for blood. Can the Niners turn over Goff and limit the run game? Not the latter.

LOSS 10-6

Week 18 at Arizona
This depends on whether the Niners need this game or not for playoff seeding. The 1 and 2 seeds are gone, but 3 could be locked in. Ideally, they have the division and the 3 seed locked and can rest their starters, but if not, everyone plays and they beat the Cards.

WIN 11-6

In my view, the older core and an unforgiving schedule expands the injury risk and any game Williams doesn’t play turns from a win to a loss. The games against Seattle and the Rams loom large. This is a year where I believe playoff tiebreakers will be vital. An improved NFC will dampen records this time.  I have the Niners at 11-6 and the 3rd seed in the conference.

Far too early NFC, AFC, and playoff predictions next week.