49ers-Buccaneers Game Preview: CMC Returns Just In Time

Both teams need the win to stay viable for the playoffs

Nov 19, 2023; Santa Clara, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey (23) carries the ball against Tampa Bay Buccaneers cornerback Zyon McCollum (27) during the third quarter at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images / Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images

By opening at 4-4, the 49ers have little margin for error in the second half of the season. They’ll likely need to finish no worse than 10-7 and sweep the three remaining division games. That journey begins by winning three straight: Dallas last week, now Tampa, then Seattle. All doable.

Christian McCaffrey returns and not a moment too soon, he will likely be central to the game plan, particularly in the red zone.  The Niners rank 28th in red zone touchdown percentage at 48.6%.

Injuries may keep out Nick Bosa (hip pointer) and Malik Mustapha (calf), both are listed as questionable. Charvarius Ward will not play, he just had services for the tragic death of his baby girl.

Tampa’s 2nd team All-Pro wide receiver Mike Evans is out. Star defensive tackle Vita Vea is trying to play through a hip injury, he’s had light practices this week and is questionable.

49ERS ON OFFENSE

For Brock Purdy, the Tampa defense is a mixed bag. First the good news, they play zone coverage at the 3rd highest rate in the league, and rank 31st in receiving yards to both running backs and tight ends. McCaffrey and George Kittle could have big days.

The bad news is Todd Bowles likes to blitz his DB’s, which the Niners struggle to pick up. The Bucs are the 3rd highest blitzing team, rank 8th in sacks, and 9th in pressures. If Purdy can escape that he should find open receivers as the Tampa defense has given up the third most passing yards in the league.

McCaffrey will have value as a target and a decoy. His gravity in attracting defenders should create open looks for Kittle and Jauan Jennings in the red zone.

The open question is how many carries and targets will McCaffrey get? Fans are hoping for caution from Shanahan, but it’s worth noting when asked this week if he would go to a 2023 workload for McCaffrey, Shanahan did not rule it out.

Will Shanahan be able to resist hitting the easy button 20 times for McCaffrey? Can McCaffrey resist his competitive desire to play as much as he can? History says no, but the context has changed coming off injury.

More success near the goal line will help the Niners work the clock. Their time of possession in the last three games is in the middle of the league. With the defensive line lacking depth this year they need more time to recover. It tends to show up in the second half when the defense lets teams back in games. If McCaffrey fixes that, the Niners should win.

TAMPA ON OFFENSE

As they demonstrated in taking Kansas City to overtime without both starting receivers, the Bucs compete. Baker Mayfield takes risks, he’s 4th in passing yards but 9th in picks. With Evans out, he has turned to tight end Cade Otton, who has caught 25 passes for 258 yards and three touchdowns in the last three games.

The challenge for the Niner defense is they need Fred Warner to neutralize Otton, but that leaves the rest of the back seven to fill in the running game. If Mustapha can’t play, the Niners lose his physicality against the run. Ji’Ayir Brown will need to step up.

If Bosa can’t go or is limited by the hip pointer, can San Francisco bring consistent pressure against Mayfield? The best blitzer is Warner, but he’ll be preoccupied with Otton.

A final factor with Tampa is they are efficient in the red zone, 3rd in the league with a touchdown conversion percentage over 70%.

PREDICTION (4-4)

The matchups favor the Niners. The stats say Tampa will struggle to contain McCaffrey and Kittle and that should solve the 49ers red zone issues. Who punches it in from the red zone will be key in this game. McCaffrey should be the solution the Niners have missed, which leads to more points, more time of possession, and more rest for the defense. The Tampa blitzes could create a turnover, but the Niners are strong where the Bucs are weakest.

49ers 31 Bucs 24