49ers Collapse in 38-10 Loss to Green Bay

The season hangs by a thread

Green Bay Packers running back Josh Jacobs (8) celebrates scoring a touchdown in the third quarter against the San Francisco 49ers during their football game Sunday, November 24, 2024, at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin. / Dan Powers/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

This loss was so thorough it felt final, as if the 49ers were given their last rites for the 2024 season. Technically the 49ers playoff chances aren’t dead yet, but that day is fast approaching.

The 2024 Niners collapse isn’t just about increasingly unlikely playoff scenarios and costly injuries, it’s about the connective thread of the year. Undisciplined play with back-breaking penalties and lethal turnovers. Inexplicable decisions from Kyle Shanahan to ride Christian McCaffrey and sit Jordan Mason, to not play his rookie receivers. An offense out of rhythm to open games and close in the red zone, areas where they were the league’s best a season ago.

The Niners are about to play some of the NFL’s best, San Francisco has the 2nd toughest schedule in the league to close out the season. Yet the team enters that gauntlet with no confidence or momentum, there is no consistency, no progress in execution, nothing to build upon. The 49ers are adrift.

Shanahan can point to injuries and the Green Bay game was particularly brutal with arguably the team’s three most important players out in Brock Purdy, Trent Williams, and Nick Bosa. Yet it was starting offensive linemen and special teams mainstays who committed the penalties. Five fumbles. Deebo Samuel with two drops, one leading to an interception. The defense dropping two catchable picks. Sloppy execution is a teamwide problem.

As for the game itself, the Niners were only down 17-7 at halftime thanks to Green Bay’s Christian Watson dropping what should have been a touchdown. Three 49er turnovers in the second half were all converted to touchdowns and the game became a blowout.

GAME BALLS

George Kittle – He came off injury and delivered, six catches for 82 yards and a red zone touchdown.

Leonard Floyd – He produced with Bosa out, a season-high two sacks.

PENALTY FLAGS

These can be given to most of the team, but the person most responsible for the loss is Shanahan.

The first two drives were three and out, blown up by penalties on Dominic Puni. Seven 2nd half possessions outside of the end game possession included a field goal, an interception, two fumbles, and three drives that ended with a punt or turning the ball over on downs. A success rate of 14%.

THE VIEW FROM 10,000 FEET

The Niners aren’t improving as the season goes on. That’ll happen when your three most important players are out, but the execution is stuck. Good teams improve over the season, bad teams stagnate.

Given the tough closing schedule, I have the Niners finishing at 8-9. They could make a pride check and recover, but there’s no evidence to back it up, just faith.

If the Niners finish out of the playoffs, changes will need to be made. I do not believe that would include firing Shanahan as head coach. He has made the Yorks a significant amount of money. However, it could include Shanahan the defacto GM losing final personnel control. Some will point to his draft success this year, but the Yorks may look at the expensive extensions and upfront cash they had to pay out - and what the team has to show for it.

I’ll dig into 2025 in my next column.

PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Playoffs??!!?

Division - The Niners caught a break in the division with Seattle beating Arizona. The Cardinals now need to sweep their next two division games (Seattle and the Rams) to clinch the division tiebreaker over the Niners. If Arizona loses one of those games the Niners can beat the Cards in the season finale and have a shot. The 2nd tiebreaker is common opponents. Arizona’s game next week is huge, Minnesota. If the Cards beat the Vikings, the Niners probably lose the 2nd tiebreaker.

Wild Card – Green Bay and Minnesota have beaten the 49ers head-to-head. So the Niners only have a chance at the 3rd spot. Washington lost to Dallas in a crazy one. The tiebreaker is winning percentage in conference games.

The Commanders are 5-3, the Niners 3-5. Washington closes the year with four NFC games: New Orleans, Atlanta, Philadelphia, and Dallas. The Niners play Chicago, the Rams, Detroit, and Arizona. Washington should win at least two of their remaining four, putting them at 7-5. This means the Niners have to sweep their remaining four NFC games including Detroit just to tie. Not happening.

The thing to watch for is Washington winning two more NFC games, that likely shuts the door on the Niners in the wild card.

NEXT UP

Buffalo. In Buffalo. Where the Sunday forecast calls for 33 and snow. With the Bills coming off their bye. That’s an L.