49ers-Cowboys Game Preview: Continued Ownership

Dallas hitting bottom at the end of the McCarthy era

October 8, 2023; Santa Clara, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers running back Jordan Mason (24) runs past Dallas Cowboys linebacker Leighton Vander Esch (55) and linebacker Micah Parsons (11) during the fourth quarter at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-Imagn Images / Kyle Terada-Imagn Images

It used to be when the 49ers and Cowboys faced off it was to determine who would be the NFL champion that year. This year it’s about survival as the Niners are 5.5-point favorites in tonight’s prime time game.

Dallas brings its least talented team in years as injuries have taken away All-Pro cornerback DaRon Bland, and their top five pass rushers including Micah Parsons. The Niners will be without Jauan Jennings and Jake Moody, while Deebo Samuel and George Kittle have been cleared to play.

49ERS ON OFFENSE

The game plan is simple. Run.

The Dallas defense is a doughnut, they have a hole in the middle. The Cowboys rank last in EPA per run play allowed and 30th in run success rate against. They can’t stop the run, and of importance for the Niners, that includes the red zone.

Jordan Mason should have a big day as the Niners will look to get touchdowns instead of field goals out of red zone drives. That should push the Niners over 30 points, provided they can protect the ball.

For Brock Purdy, with Dallas missing it’s pass rush, he should have the time to find receivers. The Cowboys will be forced to blitz to generate pressure, compensating for the missing defensive linemen. It will be up to Purdy and Kyle Shanahan to take advantage of that.

Dallas ranks second in pressure rate at 30.2% but 21st in sacks. They are 9th in blitz rate.

Key Matchup

Brock Purdy vs. the Dallas back seven

Purdy evading the blitz and making Dallas pay can be key for 49er drives in this game.

The Niners will be helped by having Samuel back, and Kittle could have another productive prime time game. An eye will be on rookies Ricky Pearsall and Jacob Cowing to see what they can produce, as well as running back Isaac Guerendo. The Niners will be poised for explosive plays in this one.

For once, the red zone will be the resistible force against the movable object, enabling the Niners to put more points on the board than usual.

DALLAS ON OFFENSE

The Dallas running game is anemic, they rely on the passing game led by Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb. The Cowboys are 10th in the league in 3rd down conversion rate. The Niners will need to double Lamb and force Dallas to beat them with other weapons.

Prescott has 8 touchdowns and 6 picks in six games, he’s been sacked 16 times. The Dallas offensive line is stout up the middle and vulnerable wide, so there’s an opportunity for Nick Bosa and Leonard Floyd to get home or force Prescott into mistakes.

It will be interesting to see if Dallas will borrow from Andy Reid’s game plan and utilize screens and 12 personnel (double tight end sets) against the Niners' defense.

Key Matchup

Dak Prescott vs the 49ers secondary

The Niners have turned over Prescott frequently in past matchups. If the defensive line brings some outside heat they could create another “Dak’s gonna Dak” game.

Special teams the Niners catch a break as the Dallas return game is among the league’s worst.

NFC PLAYOFFS

If the playoffs were held today, the Niners would not make it. They need to win the next three straight to position themselves for a solid chance to win the division. At this point a wild card berth is unlikely, so taking the NFC West becomes paramount.

A win and the Niners are in the hunt, a loss would be DEFCON 1. The 49ers need a win going into the bye. Dallas has been living for two weeks with a 47-9 drubbing against Detroit in their heads, they’ll be fired up to play, but lack the talent to win.

PREDICTION (3-4)

With Dallas unable to stop the run, and not get stops in the red zone, the Niners have the perfect opponent to get right on weaknesses. If the 49ers protect the ball, they shouldn’t have a problem in this game.

49ers 31 Dallas 17