49ers-Dolphins Game Preview: Pride vs. The Draft

As some fans root for defeat, the Niners look for redemption.

Dec 4, 2022; Santa Clara, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers defensive end Nick Bosa (97) forces a fumble against Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (1) during the fourth quarter at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-Imagn Images / Kelley L Cox-Imagn Images

Playing out the string of the season with meaningless games in December is a new experience for the 49ers. They’ll miss the playoffs for the first time since 2020. That adds some unpredictability to this matchup as a depleted Niners team travels to Miami. Will the team’s pride shine through or is it too short-handed to pull out a win?

INJURIES

SF: Trent Williams and Isaac Guerendo are out. Nick Bosa, Dre Greenlaw and Robert Beal Jr. are questionable.

MIA: Receivers Jaylen Waddle and Dee Eskridge are doubtful. Tyreek Hill has a wrist injury but is expected to play. Starting tackles Terron Armstead and Kendall Lamm are listed as questionable, both were limited in practice this week.

49ERS ON OFFENSE

Attrition puts Patrick Taylor Jr. in the starting lineup replacing Guerendo. Taylor has 14 carries for 50 yards and a long of seven yards this year. He averaged 4.4 yards per carry with a long of 24 last year in Green Bay and is a between the tackles runner. The Miami run defense ranks the same as the Niners, giving up 4.3 yards per carry.

Brock Purdy plays with some scrutiny after word surfaced that he’s looking for a top of market over $60 million per year contract extension. Miami’s pressure rate is similar to the Niners in the low 20s, but the Dolphins excel at creating free rushers, top three. Given the problems that created for Kyle Shanahan in the Super Bowl, that represents a key threat to Purdy and the offense.

The Miami defense ranks in the low 20s in the league in most categories, they’re below average. Where the Dolphins are best is 3rd down, 6th in 3rd down conversion rate against. Their weakness is generating sacks, with a sack rate of under 6%, 27th in the league.

The 49ers wild card could be Israel Abinakanda. He’s had enough time to absorb some of the offense and could get some play as a speed back to offset Taylor’s power game. Jet sweeps to the rookie receivers could also be an effective twist.

MIAMI ON OFFENSE

The Dolphins are about speed and explosives, but the receivers are banged up. While Hill should play, he’ll be playing with a bad wrist, and we’ll see if that impacts his ability to catch the ball. The yardage leader last week was rookie Malik Washington with a long of 20. Tight end Jonnu Smith had nine receptions.

Tua Tagovailoa was picked three times last week by Houston. He’s played pretty well since his return though, leading the Dolphins to four wins in their last six. He’s completed 76% of his passes in his last three wins at an average of 328 yards and three touchdowns.

When Tagovailoa last faced the Niners in 2022 he completed 54.6% of his passes, threw for 295 yards two touchdowns, and two picks in a 33-17 loss. He was also sacked three times. Tua can be pressured into mistakes, which makes Bosa’s playing status an important factor in the game.

De’Von Achane is the lead back, known for his speed but he only has a long of 13 yards in his last four games. His season long is 47. Former Niner Raheem Mostert hasn’t been a factor in this six-game stretch.

PREDICTION (9-5)

When the Niners were last in this position in 2020 with nothing to play for, they closed out the season 1-2. In 2017 with a chance at the first pick Myles Garrett, the Niners closed the year with five straight wins.

This time around, I expect the Niners pride to win out. I think Purdy will play well with the added pressure of the contract demand, and expect Shanahan to mix it up in the passing game since Taylor is the lone back left. Miami needs to get to Purdy and while they can generate free rushers, they’re 27th in sack rate.

Tagovailoa had yards but not scores the last time he faced the Niners. The Dolphins run game should see some life and they’ll need it with many of their receivers hurt.

I think the Niners can build a lead and the question as it has been all year is if they can hold on. This game I don’t trust Tagovailoa to lead a comeback win. San Francisco hangs on.

49ers 23 Miami 20

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