49ers Draft on Defense: Which Position Should they Take in Round 1?
The 49ers biggest position need is a defensive tackle that can stop the run and rush the passer. Free agency provides a DT that can do both in Poona Ford of the Chargers with Pro Football Focus grades over 80 against the run and the pass. He’ll be somewhat expensive but to me he should be the Niners top target in free agency. If they can’t sign Ford then I think they’ll try to bring back D.J. Jones, who continues to be one of the best run defenders in the league.
The run defense can also be helped at edge. DeMarcus Lawrence of the Cowboys is one of the top edge setters against the run every year. The 49ers defensive line is missing this skillset.
For this draft scenario, I’m going to assume the Niners sign Jones but not Ford or Lawrence.
The bottom line is if the Niners don’t sign an impact defensive tackle in free agency then that will likely be the position drafted at 11.
DEFENSE
DT Mason Graham is the highest-ranked DT but is projected to go in the top seven. His Michigan teammate Kenneth Grant is a run stuffer but only has three sacks. Shemar Stewart of Texas A&M is projected at DT given his 6-6/290 frame, but played 94% of his snaps at edge and only had two sacks. Derrick Harmon of Oregon has impressive stats but lacks the quick first-step defensive line coach Kris Kocurek values.
The pick at 11 should value dominance over versatility; and the hardest to find skill, interior pass rushing, over run stuffing. Run stoppers can be found in free agency and later in the draft. If a DT is taken at 11, he needs to be a great pass rusher, keep the main thing the main thing.
One player fits that criteria, and has the quick first step Kocurek demands, Walter Nolen of Ole Miss. 6-4/305 and one of the few 21-year-old DTs, Nolen had six sacks and 30 pressures this year, he leads the class in stops at 31. He had seven sacks last year.
Nolen needs to refine his pass rush technique, he keeps his legs driving and closes quickly. Nolen’s draft projection ranges from 14 to 24 currently, I expect him to move up big boards based on the 1-on-1’s at Mobile and testing at Indy.
In talking with draft evaluators I’ve known and trusted for years to research this column, they say the buzz in the trenches is about two players: Nolen and Ohio State guard Donovan Jackson. Nolen is one of my finalists on defense for the Niners pick at 11.
EDGE The Rams Jared Verse is tearing up the league, at 6-4/260 he has the ideal blend of speed and power. That’s the blueprint. Abdul Carter was dominant for Penn State in the college football playoffs but is projected to go at 4 to New England and their new coach Mike Vrabel.
The next edge is expected to go in the top ten, Georgia’s Mykel Williams, who meets the size profile at 6-5/265. The concern with Williams is production, only three sacks in his final seven games, and shut out by Notre Dame. He could fall as a result.
At 11 the Niners can look at James Pearce Jr. of Tennessee, great first step, 7.5 sacks, but at 6-5/243 he’s light and needs to fill out. The skills are there, great burst, converts speed to power, agility and bend, but he doesn’t finish as well as he could due to the lack of power. If he can add muscle his draft stock will go up, if not he’ll be viewed as a designated pass rusher (DPR).
Nic Scourton of Texas A&M is 6-4/280 and the question is if he will stay a DT/Edge tweener or lose weight for edge. He has five sacks on the year. Mike Green of Marshall is a DPR with 17 sacks, Princely Umanmielen of Ole Miss had 11 sacks and can stop the run. Late 2nd-early 3rd sleepers include Kyle Kennard of South Carolina and Donovan Ezeiruaku of Boston College, a Wide 9 fit.
LB Pass rusher Jalen Walker of Georgia is a 3-4 weapon. Alabama’s Jiihad Campbell fits the Niners profile of a heat-seeking missile, and he’s a converted edge with closing speed, but he’s best used with a defense built around him and a team committed to blitzing. Later picks in the 4th and 5th I like Lander Barton of Utah, an explosive and long sideline-to-sideline player, and Smael Mondon Jr., a great athlete who played well for Georgia in the playoffs.
DB If Will Johnson of Michigan somehow falls out of the top ten the Niners will have to consider him as a 6-2/202 long and athletic corner. 2nd rounder Jahdae Barron of Texas shut down the nation’s best receiver Jeremiah Smith of Ohio State in the playoffs. Trey Amos of Ole Miss is a 6-1/190 2nd rounder that led the country in pass breakups and forced incompletions. Azarey’h Thomas of Florida State is a coverage 3rd rounder. 6th rounder Jabbar Muhammad was one of the best slots in college last year at Washington and this year at Oregon.
S Malaki Starks is what the Niners need at safety, a cover safety ballhawk, but he’s a top 20 pick when the Niners have greater needs elsewhere. Andrew Mukuba of Texas is a 3rd round cover safety that allowed just a 54.8% catch rate and leads this safety class with five interceptions. 5th rounder Hudson Clark of Arkansas is older at 24 and needs to add muscle at 6-2/190, but is a great athlete that plays aggressively run and pass, and has played every position in the secondary.
The finalist at 11 on defense: Walter Nolen (Ole Miss) DT.
James Pearce Jr. of Tennessee Edge might join him if he adds muscle before the combine. Jiihad Campbell at LB is also in the mix if the Niners can bring back Robert Saleh as defensive coordinator. Campbell has to be deployed as a weapon.
The final pick at 11: Walter Nolen (Ole Miss) DT.
The greater need is a pass rushing defensive tackle over Tyler Warren at tight end. The Wide 9 struck fear in the league when DeForest Buckner’s interior rush demanded double teams to set up Nick Bosa and Dee Ford outside. The defense needs young stars and they can have them at all three levels, Nolen at DT, Dee Winters at LB, plus Deommodore Lenoir, Renardo Green, and Malik Mustapha in the secondary.
Tight end can still be addressed later with LSU’s Mason Taylor in a trade up from 100.
The 2nd round pick at 43 will reveal the Niner priorities of how they see the team needs. There are great players at nearly every position at 43 or with a move up. Donovan Jackson OG, Wyatt Milum West Virginia OT, Jahdae Barron and Trey Amos at DB, Princely Umanmielen and Donovan Ezeiruaku at Edge, and Jiihad Campbell at LB.