49ers Four Questions: Contract Talk

The Christian McCaffrey extension has Trent Williams interested in a revised deal, who might join him? What happens with Brandon Aiyuk now that the Niners are offering 26M per?

Dec 17, 2023; Glendale, Arizona, USA; San Francisco 49ers offensive lineman Trent Williams (71) against the Arizona Cardinals at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports / Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Entering what may be the last best chance for this core group of players to win a Super Bowl, the 49ers are going all-in. Contract extensions for Christian McCaffrey and Jauan Jennings. Increasing their offer to Brandon Aiyuk. Now Trent Williams hinting that he wants an extension. There’s blood in the water and the sharks are circling.

1. Did the McCaffrey extension signal to the vet leaders on the team that the Niners are open for business on new deals?

In signing McCaffrey to an extension, Kyle Shanahan made it clear that the team would prefer to keep proven veterans that produce, even at an advanced age for their position.

Shanahan signaled that he prefers to extend a leader over finding their replacement, regardless of age. He’s the cook in a western ringing a triangle and saying, “come and get it.”

Trent Williams is now first in line with a plate out. Fred Warner and George Kittle may be next. All of them can make the same case as McCaffrey, we’re part of the core, we’ve earned an extension regardless of age. Charvarius Ward says he’s interested in an extension too.

This reflects Shanahan’s friendship with his core, and the dangers of having offensive coordinator, head coach and GM in a single person. The temptation to be self-serving is too great.

It’s easier on the coach and coordinator to keep the vets, even past their prime. No reinvention, keep the proven stars. And by extending them, deals can be backloaded to save cap room. Win win. Until the players drop off or miss too many games, then it’s the Arik Armstead treatment.

The problem with the Armstead path is it’s cap expensive. The problem with extending old stars is it’s very cap expensive and a key injury can derail a season. Shanahan doesn’t want to eat his vegetables, he doesn’t want to have to start over with someone new. Just keep the guys I can count on, they take great care of their bodies. They do, but they still have injury history in McCaffrey’s case. Williams is missing three games a year, what happens when that becomes five or more?

Eventually the cost of constantly kicking the can down the road will come due on the field and on the cap.  The can won’t just be kicked down the road, it’ll be kicked off a cliff. A very steep cliff.

Shanahan is figuring better to kick the can and go all-in for a Super Bowl contention year and try to keep that window open as long as possible. Fair enough. However, when the window closes, when the play drops off, and when the cap bomb explodes it’ll be carnage. They’ll drop from contention to four wins.

Maybe that’s part of the plan as well. Once you can’t compete better to be truly awful to get higher picks. Then the trick is how long do you stay awful? But that won’t be Shanahan’s concern, he’ll be gone.

2.       Can the McCaffrey extension work out on the field?

Yes, but it will require an adjustment outside of the default for both McCaffrey and Shanahan. McCaffrey being an ultra-competitive athlete always wants to play and pushes to return to the field. Shanahan coaches for the moment and gives CMC a heavy workload. If this is going to work long-term, both must change, but their history predicts neither will.

It’s possible that McCaffrey will self-regulate now that he got his bag. There is no next contract to play for so he may be more willing to dial it back. However, that goes against his competitive nature.

The one who has to change is Shanahan for the good of his team. He has talented backups in Jordan Mason and Elijah Mitchell and needs a fresh CMC for the playoffs. Isaac Guerendo is more a Ray Ray McCloud at running back than part of the back rotation. He’s a designated kick returner with a few gadget plays.

Shanahan will need to coach to win the war not the battle. Will it happen? I’ll believe it when I see it. If he can that’s a major step forward for the team and gives the McCaffrey extension gamble a real chance of paying off.

If McCaffrey hits the wall at 30, the team has an $8.5 million buyout clause in two years. I don’t see Shanahan being willing to use that. Mason and Mitchell likely leave in free agency after this year and the Niners turn to a deep running back class in next year’s draft. I’d guess a 2nd round pick. That pick and McCaffrey will carry the RB load through 2027.

3.       Will the Niners extend Trent Williams?

Virtual lock. When healthy Williams remains one of the best tackles in the league. He had a stellar regular season, though he did have a poor Super Bowl. Beyond performance, Williams gives Shanahan a get out of jail free card to not invest in the offensive line. Shanahan can always just point to Trent. Which means the lack of investment on the offensive line right of Williams will continue.

4.       What happens with Aiyuk?

Michael Silver reports the Niners have upped their offer to $26 million per. What isn’t known is what percentage of that is guaranteed and what’s incentives?

Aiyuk’s development coach T.J. Houshmandzadeh says offer what Detroit gave Amon-Ra St. Brown and Aiyuk will sign it. I push back on that somewhat. I think the St. Brown deal with an extra $5 million in it overall and higher guarantees will get across the finish line.

That the Niners moved is an important step. I’m at the same place when all this began. Aiyuk’s floor is St. Brown and a little bit extra. Aiyuk thinks he’s better. If the Niners offer that, done deal Aiyuk signs. Anything short of that and I think Aiyuk will still hold out, including the opener against the Jets.

Some talk remains in Pittsburgh that the Steelers are still interested in a trade for Aiyuk. Their best offer would come before camp opens, Aiyuk would need time in their system. I don’t expect their offer to include a 1st round pick so Lynch passes, camp opens, and then it’s negotiations. With luck, a St. Brown + deal is offered and Aiyuk signs as the final piece of an all-in push for 2024.