49ers In Mid-Season Crisis, Fall to Bengals 31-17
In the Niners’ third straight defeat, they were so outplayed by Cincinnati that the Bengals were better at every position but punter. The game wasn’t as close as the 31-17 score would indicate, the 49ers will have to determine why and reinvent themselves during the bye.
What form will that reinvention take?
The case can be made to elevate linebackers coach Johnny Holland to defensive coordinator since he knows the past schemes and can go back to what’s worked. That said, it would be uncharacteristic of Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch to let Steve Wilks go. Instead, I expect Shanahan, Wilks, and the defensive coaches to assess what’s wrong and try to fix it together.
Benching Brock Purdy is what should have been done this week. Recent NFL history points to quarterbacks playing poorly after a concussion. If Shanahan wanted to see what Sam Darnold could do, he had his chance against Cincinnati and no one would have questioned it.
If Purdy is benched now, it may be questioned in the locker room, but beyond that, it can chip away at Purdy's confidence. What separates Purdy is his mind, his processing, and his calm.
I speak from experience, having survived a near-fatal car crash, a concussion lingers. You don’t feel the effects most of the time, you feel normal, but at times it hits like a hammer unexpectedly. It also comes with a lack of sharpness, you aren’t quite yourself mentally and get fatigued faster.
Shanahan needed to be cognizant of history, but his coaching decisions are the equivalent of never sacrificing a pawn or any other piece in chess. If a player says he can go he plays. Shanahan wants optimal chances on every play and every game, there is no tomorrow. It’s why Christian McCaffrey is overused, it’s why the Niners have been one of the ten most injured teams in the league every year of Shanahan’s tenure.
Why has the team fallen off a cliff?
Blueprint
The 49ers roster blueprint is unique to the league. Go dirt cheap at quarterback and the offensive line at every position but left tackle, then spend like no tomorrow on the defensive line and playmakers.
That wins regular season games and early playoff games, but it ultimately fails in the championship round of playoff games. Those matchups are won by great quarterbacks behind a stout offensive line.
It’s telling that when Patrick Mahomes lost the Super Bowl, he didn’t have a quality offensive line to protect him.
What the Niners have done is build an expensive mansion on a bad foundation. The home has every amenity you’d ever want, but the foundation keeps causing problems so the home can never be sold for what’s been invested.
They added Javon Hargrave, paid Nick Bosa, and paid Deebo Samuel. But if the foundation is bad none of that matters, you still can’t make the big sale.
The mansion becomes a money pit as the team keeps investing everywhere but the quarterback and offensive line. The problem for the Niners is there’s no pivoting out of this other than moving to a new location. You have to leave the mansion, sell it at a loss, and start over with a smart blueprint. They aren’t willing to do that since the Super Bowl window is open as long as Trent Williams is playing.
Trent Williams
The league’s best left tackle was hurt against Cleveland, sat out the next two games, and the Niners lost all three. Not a coincidence.
With this blueprint, Williams is the team’s MVP. They literally can’t afford to lose him. Without Williams, the running game is no longer dominant and the pass protection is suspect because Shanahan goes cheap for every other lineman on the team.
You would think that given Willliams' importance and the blueprint’s total reliance on him, the team would invest in a quality backup. Jaylon Moore is a 4th round pick making $750K.
The blueprint’s margin of error is Trent Williams’ health. That’s a risky bet, as shown in this three-game losing streak.
Sign of the times
Shanahan’s scheme is built on Williams enabling McCaffrey, who dictates to the defense and opens play-action, thereby opening the offense. So when the argument is made but look at all the talent they still have when Williams and Samuel are out it doesn’t matter. Without Williams healthy, it doesn’t work. The blueprint breaks down.
The father of the outside zone running game preached that you don’t need the great athlete, the size and length of a first-round pick, you just need a dog. The problem is that those physical traits are exactly what you do need for pass protection. So the Niners draft for the outside zone, and pass protection suffers.
The league adjusted to go with more physicality on the line, and Shanahan once again chose to go against the grain and use late-pick linemen who fit the running game. That worked for his father 15-20 years ago. Now, it carries the pass protection downside, and the running game still needs Williams as the engine.
The defensive concept is also not aging well. Invest in a great pass rush, teams adjust to a quick throwing game. The modern adjustment is to have great cover corners that force the quarterback to hold the ball, giving the rush time to get home. The Niners understand that, as Lynch tries to land a DB at the trade deadline on Tuesday at 1 p.m.
