49ers Play Let’s Make A Deal: The Brandon Aiyuk Version

So the Aiyuk soap opera is over, he’s getting dealt? It needs to happen soon and likely will.

Dec 31, 2023; Landover, Maryland, USA; San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk (11) celebrates with fans after defeating the Washington Commanders at FedExField. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports / Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

The interminable Brandon Aiyuk drama can only end when he is satisfied that everything is just right. Which may finally be happening. Aiyuk gets the contract and team that he wants and this finally, mercifully, ends.

Reportedly Aiyuk vetoed a deal to Cleveland. Not the team he wants. John Lynch vetoed past trade offers from Washington and Pittsburgh, not the trade ante he wants. Now as talks near a closing point, presumably the Pittsburgh offer has finally improved and that breaks the stalemate.

Rumors indicate the Steelers are willing to part with starting 6-4/327 right guard James Daniels, a six-year pro. Daniels received the lowest Pro Football Focus grades of his career last year 59.9 in pass pro and 60.4 in run blocking.

A few encouraging numbers offset his pass protection grades. One sack allowed in two years, top 20 in lowest pressure rate allowed among guards last season.

Daniels is expendable given that Pittsburgh spent its first two picks on offensive linemen. He’s attractive to the Niners as a 27-year old vet on the final year of his contract, counting $11.2 million against the cap this year.

The trade ante would presumably be Daniels and draft picks. A first is unlikely, a 2nd and a later pick seems reasonable.

A deal would need to happen soon so that both teams can integrate new starters in pre-season games and have enough time in the system to be ready for the season.

If Aiyuk then drags it out on the contract details he risks the deal falling apart so it’s in his fiscal self-interest to get this done quickly as well.

Is this the best outcome?

No. The best scenario for the team was keeping Aiyuk, but the 49ers not making a fair market offer for months set a negative tone, followed by immature and impatient mistakes by Aiyuk in every aspect of the negotiations.

Will the team be hurt?

Yes. Off the field Aiyuk is a mentor to younger players. On it he is unique as a separator against press coverage that brings speed for deep routes, is exceptionally productive on a per target basis, and is a very good run blocker. That skillset can’t be replaced by one player. Ricky Pearsall can’t beat press coverage. Jauan Jennings blocks well but lacks speed, the Niners are trying to Frankenstein an Aiyuk out of multiple players.

Does losing Aiyuk prevent a trip back to the Super Bowl?

The answer to that was about more than one player. Losing Aiyuk hurts a return trip but it doesn’t end the possibility. Kyle Shanahan will have to adjust and we’ll see what he comes up with. Pearsall, Jennings, Brayden Willis and Kyle Juszczyk may all be part of the answer.

If they get Daniels how much of an upgrade would he be?

As a pass protector, Daniels adds value, one sack in two years and a low pressure rate against. Run blocking we’ll see. He has more size than the Niners prefer, hence a lineman that can have more value as a pass protector, something Shanahan tends to avoid.

Daniels adds something they need desperately at OL, veteran depth. Now Dominic Puni won’t be pressed into action right away. Nearly every rookie lineman needs a year to power up into NFL starting lineman core strength. Lacking that, Puni could have struggled while Daniels should be more reliable on day one than Jon Feliciano, Spencer Burford, and Puni.

What’s the big picture takeaway?

Assuming he's dealt, Brandon Aiyuk is the second casualty of the Brock Purdy extension. A reminder that the Jalen Hurts extension cost the Eagles seven starters. The 49ers are at two and counting: Aiyuk and Arik Armstead.

The Niners chose to draw a line, which may be Shanahan choosing Deebo Samuel over Aiyuk. Can the Aiyuk skillset be replaced by 3-4 guys? We’ll find out but I doubt it. The Shanahan system leans on positionless football to keep defenses guessing. Aiyuk took on many roles. A Frankenstein approach will show their hand given the limitations of each player.

Losing Aiyuk is a significant blow. It can be addressed with a patchwork alternative, but he can’t be replaced. Purdy will get better pass protection on the right side, up to Shanahan to scheme players open without Aiyuk taking the #1 corner and beating him in press coverage.

The Purdy extension will be expensive, not just on the cap but in players lost. That will make player development a critical factor in weathering this roster transition while maintaining contention.