Trey Lance is Not Good on Game Film

Lance was extremely concerning in four areas.

Trey Lance did three things consistently well as the quarterback for the San Francisco 49ers: he ran the ball, he handed it off and he completed short passes.

That’s it.

This is what game film revealed against Seattle (7-10), Arizona (11-6) and Houston (4-13) during the 2021 regular season. These are the three games Lance saw the bulk of his playing time.

The study of game film is about identifying patterns and tendencies to develop a big-picture evaluation. It excludes the “one-off’s,” whether they end in a positive or negative result.

During these three games, Lance ran the ball 31 times (5.19 yards per attempt), handed it off 48 times, and threw 27 short range passes. That equates to Lance running, handing it off or throwing a short pass 71% of the time (106/150 plays). That was Lance’s comfort level in this offense, and 49ers’ coach Kyle Shanahan’s comfort level in play calling when Lance was in the game.

Lance proved to be dangerously erratic when he was attempting to throw the ball further downfield into the intermediate to deep route ranges.

Lance was extremely concerning in these four areas:

1. Intermediate route completion percentage

50% accuracy (15/30) completions in the intermediate route range. However, Lance did show steady improvement in this area incrementally. Against Seattle (1/6), Arizona (5/10) and Houston (9/14). 

2. Ball placement at the intermediate route levels

Lance showed a tendency to deliver his passes either too high or too low at the intermediate route level. He delivered the ball too high seven times and too low six times. That equates to 13/30 throws. Passes delivered too high or too low can hinder receivers picking up additional yardage after the catch.

3. Deep accuracy

Lance was 33% accurate (2/6) when throwing the ball deep. On the two touchdowns he completed to receiver Deebo Samuel against Seattle and Houston, Samuel had to noticeably wait on both passes.

4. Ball Protection

In these three games, opposing defenses touched his passing attempts 11 times. That works out to almost four times (3.66) per game.

Here is a detailed look at Lance’s ball protection issue in these three games:

SF vs. SEA (4x)

3Q 9:04 Pass broken up downfield

4Q 11:20 Ball tipped at the line of scrimmage

4Q 8:52 Pass broken up and almost intercepted

4Q 6:57 Pass deflected downfield

SF vs. AZ (4x)

1Q 12:50 Pass intercepted intermediate route level

1Q 8:15 Ball tipped at the line of scrimmage

4Q 8:35 Ball tipped at the line of scrimmage

4Q 7:49 Ball tipped at the line of scrimmage

SF vs. HOU (3x)

2Q 9:17 Pass intercepted at the intermediate route level

3Q 12:42 Pass knocked down over the middle

3Q 11:11 Pass deflected downfield

Lance also struggled to convert on third downs in these three games, going 9/31 (29%), but was better on fourth downs (6/11, 55%).

San Francisco additionally had eight holding penalties (and four other offensive penalties) during this time frame. 

Lance completed 57.7% of his passes in 2021, which ranks him No. 32 in the league (teamrankings.com), just slightly ahead of Jets QB Zach Wilson (55.6%).

These are not my opinions. This is what Lance himself put on game film.

This is Lance’s NFL resume, which concluded with a 33.4 ESPN QBR (which is defined as the adjusted total quarterback rating, this values the quarterback on all play types on a 0-100 scale adjusted for the strength of opposing defenses faced).

That number ranks Lance No. 29 QB in the league by ESPN’s standards.

These are the facts Shanahan is left with to consider. 

Shanahan is also left with the most bottom line stat there is: San Francisco lost two out out of three of these games when Lance was in there, leading his team.

When expanding the sample size to include pre-season data from three preseason games (100 charted plays), Lance dramatically improved from 16% intermediate range accuracy to 50%, but decreased his deep accuracy from 50% to 33%. However. his third down conversion rate 7/23 (30%) and lack of ball protection (eight potential turnovers) remained alarmingly similar. 

This is the conundrum Shanahan is faced with. This is why he hasn't come out and named Lance as the starter yet. This is why he hasn't parted with Jimmy Garoppolo yet. This is why Shanahan hasn't made a decision.

The raw data simply is not good enough to support one, so he's stalling.