49ers Quarterback Wars: Brock Purdy vs. Trey Lance vs. Sam Darnold
It seemed innocent enough, Trey Lance improving his mechanics by working with Patrick Mahomes’ quarterback coach Jeff Christensen. Little did we realize at the time that this would launch World War Trey.
49ers content creators and fans are heavily dug in on their quarterback favorites – and the fur flies.
Arguing over which quarterback is ignoring the elephant in the room.
The Niners could clone Steve Young, they aren’t winning hardware until the pass protection on the right side of the offensive line improves dramatically.
When Brock Purdy dropped back to pass in the Dallas playoff game the Cowboys pressured him on 48.5% of the snaps according to Pro Football Focus. When he faced that pressure, Purdy was 4-12 for 55 yards. Which is why the Niners only put up 19 points.
Fans say the offensive line was top 10 in the league last year. When the games mattered most, what happened? Purdy was pressured on half of his dropbacks against Dallas, then the Eagles injured Purdy in six plays and Josh Johnson shortly after halftime.
Will that happen again with Colton McKivitz at right tackle? That’s arguably the most important question of the upcoming season. Based on what we’ve seen so far from McKivitz, I’m skeptical.
Kyle Shanahan points to similar skepticism over Jake Brendel last year and Brendel answered his critics. We’ll see if McKivitz can do the same.
I do expect that Spencer Burford will make the sophomore leap. And if not, Jon Feliciano can either platoon or start over him. The larger concern is a lack of quality depth at tackle, this team cannot withstand a long-term injury to Trent Williams and could struggle without McKivitz.
The needed upgrade at right tackle will have to wait until the first round of next year’s draft when impact talent can finally be added at a cap-friendly price point.
Brock Purdy
Calling Purdy a dink-and-dunk quarterback apparently ticks off a lot of people in the 49ers Twitterverse and YouTubeland. So, ok I’ll start. Brock Purdy is a dink-and-dunk quarterback – in how Kyle Shanahan uses him. 70 percent of the pass attempts were under 10 yards last season.
Can Purdy make all the requisite throws? Yes, but Shanahan is playing to what he believes are Purdy’s strengths. Unlike Jimmy Garoppolo, Purdy can make deep, middle and sideline throws and complete them, but Shanahan isn’t going to call them very often.
The question is why? Hanging passes where receivers are waiting for the ball to come down, worried about potential interceptions, going to their bread and butter to establish a rhythm, all that factors in.
Trey Lance has the more talented arm, he can throw deep and hit receivers in stride. Fans value Lance's stronger arm because fans invariably want what their team lacks. The flip side also has to be applied, the plays Purdy makes which Lance can’t do as well. Anticipatory throws, processing the field quickly, and getting the ball out on time.
If Lance is to secure the starting job long-term, he will need to show he can put up 32 points per game in the regular season, not turn the ball over, and do everything the system requires. Purdy has proven he can, so he gets the starting job when healthy.
Some point to wins. Purdy is undefeated other than the Eagles game, but the Niners mission isn’t to be in the mix, it’s to win a ring. Garoppolo won too, but he lost the most important games.
Garoppolo winning when the Niners lost without him doesn’t hold much water. The Niners cap strategy didn’t invest in a decent backup. Nick Mullens, C.J. Beathard, and Brian Hoyer lost those games because they weren’t even quality NFL backups, they were 3rd stringers who did nothing in the league during and after San Francisco.
To me, the larger issue with Purdy is fragility at 6-1 and 220 pounds soaking wet. Can he hold up? Particularly behind an offensive line which the 49ers underinvest in the right side, pick players for run blocking, and Purdy is improvising in open space.
Trey Lance
Lance’s improved mechanics are a needed development. My main takeaway is that his release is faster now. That has to be accompanied by faster decision-making. Lance needs to cut any hesitancy - see it, throw it. That comes with game reps.
The question is if Lance will get those game reps? An updated prognosis on Purdy will come out in early June. Brock’s recovery has been positive so far, I would not be surprised if Purdy starts Week 1. With injuries being a constant on this team, Lance will get an opportunity eventually.
The issue with Lance is the playcalling. Fans want to see the plays that were called for Lance vs. Houston and not the up-the-middle run that got him hurt.
The important news is Lance now has an off-season development coach that can elevate his game.
Lance has two years left before he’d walk in free agency. His competition with Purdy and Sam Darnold will all sort itself out, but who has the patience for that? Certainly not Niners Twitter.
Sam Darnold
Talented thrower, yes. 25, yes. Turnover machine, yes. Darnold needs to exorcise the Ghost of Football Past. Until he does, he’ll stay affixed to the bench.
On talent, Darnold can compete, but his resume can’t be ignored. Darnold finished the year on a 4-2 run leading Carolina, but with three interceptions and six fumbles (losing two).
That turnover history is a major concern to open the year, as the Niners have lost turnovers 8-1 and 5-1 in the last two years in their sub-.500 starts.
The jury is out on whether any of these quarterbacks are capable of winning a ring. I think Purdy will be helped significantly next year if he’s healthy over the summer and can develop his game. Same with Lance. Then add a right tackle in the draft and the Niners should have their best chance at a ring in the Shanahan Era.
